ScoreProb
Oberliga - Hamburg Germany Hamburg - 15 2026

Concordia vs Süderelbe

Concordia Home · Elo 1,434
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Süderelbe Away · Elo 1,532
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Süderelbe win
Concordia win
11.8%
Draw
14.6%
Süderelbe winPick
73.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.8%
No38.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.574.4%
Under 2.525.6%

How much we know

Concordia history17 matches
Süderelbe history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (73.6%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Süderelbe are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Süderelbe are rated 98 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,532 against 1,434. On rating alone Süderelbe would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Süderelbe score more

    1.53 goals a game over 17 matches for Concordia, against 2.25 over 48 for Süderelbe.

  • Süderelbe concede fewer

    Concordia concede 3.06 a game, Süderelbe 1.79.

  • Concordia games more often go over 2.5 goals

    82% of Concordia matches, against 71% for Süderelbe. The model puts this match at 74% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Concordia
Süderelbe
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1434.0
ELO
1532.1
17
ELO · Matches
48
1434.0
Current Team ELO
1532.1
1532.1
Current Opponent ELO
1434.0
-98.14
Current ELO Difference
98.14
0.36
Expected score
0.64
17
History Matches
48
-0.19
Residual Mean
0.03
41.31
Overperformance
52.20
-0.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
2.00
0.80
Goals for per game
2.60
2.80
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.40
PPG
1.80
1.30
Goals for per game
2.50
3.40
Goals against per game
1.60
10.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
3.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.58
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.51
Overall performance9 signals
90
17
Matches
48
0.71
PPG
1.60
17.6%
Win rate
45.8%
17.6%
Draw rate
22.9%
64.7%
Loss rate
31.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
82.4%
Over 2.5 rate
70.8%
70.6%
Over 3.5 rate
58.3%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
Venue performance10 signals
100
9
Matches
24
0.44
PPG
1.50
11.1%
Win rate
45.8%
11.1%
Draw rate
12.5%
77.8%
Loss rate
41.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
88.9%
Over 2.5 rate
70.8%
77.8%
Over 3.5 rate
58.3%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.32
9
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.53
Goals for per game
2.25
82.4%
Scoring rate
85.4%
82.4%
BTTS rate
64.6%
1.44
Goals for per game
2.13
88.9%
Scoring rate
83.3%
88.9%
BTTS rate
58.3%
0.50
Goals for per game
2.25
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
17
History Matches
48
1.53
Goals Mean
2.25
1.14
Goals Std
1.63
82.4%
Scored 1+ rate
85.4%
41.2%
Scored 2+ rate
62.5%
23.5%
Scored 3+ rate
43.8%
1.44
Venue Goals Mean
2.13
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
3.06
Goals against per game
1.79
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
3.56
Goals against per game
1.96
100.0%
Conceding rate
70.8%
2.25
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
17
History Matches
48
3.06
Conceded Mean
1.79
1.35
Conceded Std
1.40
82.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
58.3%
70.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
31.3%
3.56
Venue Conceded Mean
1.96
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
14.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
14.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
17
History Matches
48
0.81
Result entropy
0.96
1.82
Goal Difference Std
2.01
18.63
Stability score
3.63
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
16
Eligible Matches
48
3
Lead Matches
17
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
76.5%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.82
9
Trailing Matches
12
22.2%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
16
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.81
First Half Goals For Mean
1.02
1.31
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.23
1.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.98
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.25
Rest days
75.23
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
5
Normal Rest History Matches
19
0.60
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.68
11
Long Rest History Matches
26
0.82
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.65
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.25
PPG
1.75
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.25
Current Competition PPG
1.75
-1.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.25
2
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.13
0.60
Portability PPG Range
0.31
62.65
Portability Score
79.26
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
17
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-98.14
PPG-0.90
GF-0.72
GA1.27
PPG-1.50
PPG-1.06
PPG-1.80
PPG-1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-31
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Failed-to-score rate3.1%
History Matches-15
Clean-sheet rate-0.29
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-31
Goals Mean-0.72
Goals Std-0.48
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.21
Scored 3+ rate-0.20
Venue Goals Mean-0.68
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.10
History Matches-31
Conceded Mean1.27
Conceded Std-0.05
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Conceded 2+ rate24.0%
Conceded 3+ rate39.3%
Venue Conceded Mean1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.31
History Matches-31
Result entropy-0.15
Goal Difference Std-0.19
Stability score15.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.06
Eligible Matches-32
Lead Matches-14
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate2.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-32
First Half Goals For Mean-0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.83
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.17
Portability PPG Range0.28
Portability Score-16.61
Rest days0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-14
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.08
Long Rest History Matches-15
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.84
Current Team ELO-98.14
Current Opponent ELO98.14
Current ELO Difference-196.3
Expected score-0.28
History Matches-31
Residual Mean-0.22
Overperformance-10.89
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.37

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Concordia

W
Pinneberg2–4Concordia1 Nov · away
Pick: Pinneberg 60% · missed
L
Concordia0–3Victoria Hamburg23 Oct · home
Pick: Victoria Hamburg 71% · hit
L
Vorwärts-Wacker 045–2Concordia16 Oct · away
Pick: Vorwärts-Wacker 04 66% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Süderelbe

L
Süderelbe3–4Teutonia Ottensen30 Oct · home
Pick: Süderelbe 57% · missed
W
Tus Dassendorf1–2Süderelbe24 Oct · away
Pick: Tus Dassendorf 70% · missed
L
Süderelbe1–2Sasel16 Oct · home
Pick: Süderelbe 54% · missed
L
Pinneberg2–1Süderelbe4 Oct · away
Pick: Süderelbe 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Concordia and Süderelbe meet in Oberliga - Hamburg on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Concordia win 11.8%, draw 14.6%, Süderelbe win 73.6%. The pick is Süderelbe win. Over 2.5 goals: 74.4%. Both teams to score: 61.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.