ScoreProb
Oberliga - Hamburg Germany Hamburg - 15 2026

Norderstedt II vs Niendorfer TSV

Norderstedt II Home · Elo 1,463
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Niendorfer TSV Away · Elo 1,564
Edmund-Plambeck-Stadion, Norderstedt Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Niendorfer TSV win
Norderstedt II win
10.9%
Draw
12.8%
Niendorfer TSV winPick
76.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.2%
No38.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.579.4%
Under 2.520.6%

How much we know

Norderstedt II history4 matches
Niendorfer TSV history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (76.4%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Niendorfer TSV are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Niendorfer TSV are rated 101 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,564 against 1,463. On rating alone Niendorfer TSV would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Niendorfer TSV score far more

    1.25 goals a game over 4 matches for Norderstedt II, against 2.23 over 53 for Niendorfer TSV.

  • Niendorfer TSV concede fewer

    Norderstedt II concede 3.75 a game, Niendorfer TSV 1.55.

  • Norderstedt II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    100% of Norderstedt II matches, against 66% for Niendorfer TSV. The model puts this match at 79% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Norderstedt II
Niendorfer TSV
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1463.1
ELO
1563.7
4
ELO · Matches
53
1463.1
Current Team ELO
1563.7
1563.7
Current Opponent ELO
1463.1
-100.6
Current ELO Difference
100.6
0.36
Expected score
0.64
4
History Matches
53
-0.46
Residual Mean
0.06
42.34
Overperformance
54.16
-0.46
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
4
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
2.00
1.25
Goals for per game
2.40
3.75
Goals against per game
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
4
Matches
10
0.00
PPG
2.20
1.25
Goals for per game
2.20
3.75
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
3.75
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.62
0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
4
Matches
53
0.00
PPG
1.68
0.0%
Win rate
47.2%
0.0%
Draw rate
26.4%
100.0%
Loss rate
26.4%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
94.3%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.0%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
49.1%
1.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.13
Venue performance10 signals
100
2
Matches
27
0.00
PPG
1.74
0.0%
Win rate
48.1%
0.0%
Draw rate
29.6%
100.0%
Loss rate
22.2%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
74.1%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
51.9%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.93
2
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.25
Goals for per game
2.23
75.0%
Scoring rate
88.7%
75.0%
BTTS rate
69.8%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.52
50.0%
Scoring rate
96.3%
50.0%
BTTS rate
70.4%
1.25
Goals for per game
2.25
75.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
4
History Matches
53
1.25
Goals Mean
2.23
0.83
Goals Std
1.51
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
88.7%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
66.0%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
35.8%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
2.52
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
3.75
Goals against per game
1.55
100.0%
Conceding rate
79.2%
4.50
Goals against per game
1.48
100.0%
Conceding rate
74.1%
3.75
Goals against per game
2.25
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
4
History Matches
53
3.75
Conceded Mean
1.55
1.30
Conceded Std
1.35
100.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.4%
100.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.0%
4.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.48
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
11.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
3.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
11.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
3.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
4
History Matches
53
0.00
Result entropy
0.96
1.12
Goal Difference Std
2.13
100.0
Stability score
3.72
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
4
Eligible Matches
51
1
Lead Matches
27
0.0%
Lead Win Rate
74.1%
0.00
Lead Points Retention
0.79
3
Trailing Matches
11
0.0%
Non-loss rate
36.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
4
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
1.08
1.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.18
2.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
75.29
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
5
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.60
1
Normal Rest History Matches
19
0.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.79
2
Long Rest History Matches
28
0.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.64
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.00
PPG
1.75
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
1.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.67
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.75
-2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
1
Competition Season Count
4
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.28
—
Portability PPG Range
0.68
—
Portability Score
64.06
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
4
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-100.6
PPG-1.68
GF-0.98
GA2.20
PPG-1.75
PPG-1.74
PPG-2.00
PPG-2.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-49
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Failed-to-score rate13.7%
History Matches-25
Clean-sheet rate-0.26
Failed-to-score rate46.3%
History Matches-49
Goals Mean-0.98
Goals Std-0.68
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.36
Venue Goals Mean-1.52
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.95
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.25
History Matches-49
Conceded Mean2.20
Conceded Std-0.05
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Conceded 2+ rate56.6%
Conceded 3+ rate83.0%
Venue Conceded Mean3.02
Recent 10 Conceded Mean2.15
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.33
History Matches-49
Result entropy-0.96
Goal Difference Std-1.01
Stability score96.28
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.38
Eligible Matches-47
Lead Matches-26
Lead Win Rate-0.74
Lead Points Retention-0.79
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate-0.36
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches-47
First Half Goals For Mean-0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean0.95
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean1.25
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.50
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days1.75
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest History Matches-18
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.79
Long Rest History Matches-26
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.64
Current Team ELO-100.6
Current Opponent ELO100.6
Current ELO Difference-201.2
Expected score-0.28
History Matches-49
Residual Mean-0.52
Overperformance-11.83
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.66

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Norderstedt II

L
Paloma5–2Norderstedt II1 Nov · away
Pick: Paloma 87% · hit
W
Norderstedt II2–1Nikola Tesla23 Oct · home
Pick: Nikola Tesla 50% · missed
L
Norderstedt II1–2HEBC16 Oct · home
Pick: HEBC 68% · hit
W
Norderstedt II2–1ETSV Hamburg13 Oct · home
Pick: ETSV Hamburg 82% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Niendorfer TSV

W
Niendorfer TSV2–1Harksheide1 Nov · home
Pick: Niendorfer TSV 65% · hit
W
Altona 932–3Niendorfer TSV24 Oct · away
Pick: Niendorfer TSV 51% · hit
W
Niendorfer TSV9–5Buchholz18 Oct · home
Pick: Niendorfer TSV 60% · hit
L
Pinneberg5–0Niendorfer TSV30 Aug · away
Pick: Pinneberg 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Norderstedt II and Niendorfer TSV meet in Oberliga - Hamburg on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. The match is played at Edmund-Plambeck-Stadion, Norderstedt. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Norderstedt II win 10.9%, draw 12.8%, Niendorfer TSV win 76.4%. The pick is Niendorfer TSV win. Over 2.5 goals: 79.4%. Both teams to score: 61.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.