ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 Spain Group 2 - 10 2026

Condal vs L'Entregu

Condal Home · Elo 1,431
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
L'Entregu Away · Elo 1,517
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: L'Entregu win
Condal win
22.5%
Draw
31.2%
L'Entregu winPick
46.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.4%
No52.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.1%
Under 2.554.9%

How much we know

Condal history15 matches
L'Entregu history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why L'Entregu are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • L'Entregu are rated 86 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,517 against 1,431. On rating alone L'Entregu would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • L'Entregu score far more

    0.33 goals a game over 15 matches for Condal, against 1.29 over 48 for L'Entregu.

  • L'Entregu concede fewer

    Condal concede 1.93 a game, L'Entregu 1.19.

  • L'Entregu games more often go over 2.5 goals

    33% of Condal matches, against 48% for L'Entregu. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 11 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Condal
L'Entregu
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1430.6
ELO
1516.5
15
ELO · Matches
48
1430.6
Current Team ELO
1516.5
1516.5
Current Opponent ELO
1430.6
-85.92
Current ELO Difference
85.92
0.38
Expected score
0.62
15
History Matches
48
-0.22
Residual Mean
0.02
40.43
Overperformance
51.20
-0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
0.80
0.20
Goals for per game
0.60
2.20
Goals against per game
1.80
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.30
0.40
Goals for per game
1.30
1.80
Goals against per game
1.50
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.73
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.69
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.32
Overall performance9 signals
90
15
Matches
48
0.60
PPG
1.48
13.3%
Win rate
39.6%
20.0%
Draw rate
29.2%
66.7%
Loss rate
31.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
68.8%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
47.9%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
Venue performance10 signals
100
8
Matches
24
0.63
PPG
1.38
12.5%
Win rate
33.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
37.5%
62.5%
Loss rate
29.2%
62.5%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
37.5%
Over 2.5 rate
45.8%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
8
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.33
Goals for per game
1.29
33.3%
Scoring rate
70.8%
20.0%
BTTS rate
54.2%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.25
50.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
37.5%
BTTS rate
54.2%
15
History Matches
48
0.33
Goals Mean
1.29
0.47
Goals Std
1.29
33.3%
Scored 1+ rate
70.8%
0.0%
Scored 2+ rate
31.3%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
14.6%
0.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.93
Goals against per game
1.19
73.3%
Conceding rate
70.8%
1.63
Goals against per game
1.04
75.0%
Conceding rate
70.8%
15
History Matches
48
1.93
Conceded Mean
1.19
1.61
Conceded Std
1.07
60.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.3%
33.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
1.63
Venue Conceded Mean
1.04
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
15
History Matches
48
0.78
Result entropy
0.99
1.78
Goal Difference Std
1.69
21.64
Stability score
0.81
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
14
Eligible Matches
48
1
Lead Matches
16
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.75
9
Trailing Matches
10
0.0%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
14
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.21
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
1.14
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.35
0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
546.0
Rest days
181.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
9
Normal Rest History Matches
26
0.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
5
Long Rest History Matches
21
0.40
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.38
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.06
—
Portability PPG Range
0.13
—
Portability Score
88.89
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
15
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-85.92
PPG-0.88
GF-0.96
GA0.75
PPG-0.75
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-33
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate37.5%
History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate16.7%
History Matches-33
Goals Mean-0.96
Goals Std-0.82
Scored 1+ rate-0.38
Scored 2+ rate-0.31
Scored 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Goals Mean-0.75
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.25
History Matches-33
Conceded Mean0.75
Conceded Std0.54
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate28.8%
Conceded 3+ rate20.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.58
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.04
History Matches-33
Result entropy-0.21
Goal Difference Std0.10
Stability score20.83
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.63
Eligible Matches-34
Lead Matches-15
Lead Win Rate31.3%
Lead Points Retention0.25
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.30
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-34
First Half Goals For Mean-0.37
First Half Goals Against Mean0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days364.2
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-17
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.83
Long Rest History Matches-16
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.98
Current Team ELO-85.92
Current Opponent ELO85.92
Current ELO Difference-171.8
Expected score-0.24
History Matches-33
Residual Mean-0.24
Overperformance-10.77
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Condal

D
Covadonga1–1Condal1 Nov · away
Pick: Covadonga 70% · missed
D
Condal0–0Ceares25 Oct · home
Pick: Ceares 44% · missed
D
Astur1–1Condal18 Oct · away
Pick: Astur 39% · missed
D
Llanes1–1Condal4 Oct · away
Pick: Llanes 57% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

L'Entregu

L
L'Entregu1–4Gijón Industrial31 Oct · home
Pick: L'Entregu 55% · missed
L
Mosconia3–1L'Entregu25 Oct · away
Pick: Mosconia 54% · hit
D
L'Entregu1–1San Martín18 Oct · home
Pick: L'Entregu 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Condal and L'Entregu meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Condal win 22.5%, draw 31.2%, L'Entregu win 46.3%. The pick is L'Entregu win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.1%. Both teams to score: 47.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.