ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 Spain Group 2 - 10 2026

Caudal vs Llanes

Caudal Home · Elo 1,618
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Llanes Away · Elo 1,453
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Caudal win
Caudal winPick
71.5%
Draw
16.5%
Llanes win
11.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.3%
No45.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.7%
Under 2.543.3%

How much we know

Caudal history58 matches
Llanes history34 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (71.5%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Caudal are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Caudal are rated 165 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,618 against 1,453. On rating alone Caudal would be expected to take 72% of the points on offer.

  • Caudal score more

    1.57 goals a game over 58 matches for Caudal, against 1.32 over 34 for Llanes.

  • Caudal concede fewer

    Caudal concede 0.90 a game, Llanes 1.53.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    45% of Caudal matches, against 50% for Llanes. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 8 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Caudal
Llanes
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1617.9
ELO
1452.9
58
ELO · Matches
34
1617.9
Current Team ELO
1452.9
1452.9
Current Opponent ELO
1617.9
165.0
Current ELO Difference
-165.0
0.72
Expected score
0.28
58
History Matches
34
0.10
Residual Mean
-0.07
57.57
Overperformance
45.88
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.60
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
0.70
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
2.20
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.56
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.33
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.17
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
34
2.00
PPG
1.09
60.3%
Win rate
23.5%
19.0%
Draw rate
38.2%
20.7%
Loss rate
38.2%
63.8%
Over 1.5 rate
73.5%
44.8%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
27.6%
Over 3.5 rate
35.3%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.28
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
16
2.07
PPG
0.88
63.3%
Win rate
18.8%
16.7%
Draw rate
31.3%
20.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
68.8%
53.3%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
43.8%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.32
30
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.57
Goals for per game
1.32
75.9%
Scoring rate
76.5%
48.3%
BTTS rate
64.7%
1.90
Goals for per game
1.25
83.3%
Scoring rate
62.5%
56.7%
BTTS rate
56.3%
58
History Matches
34
1.57
Goals Mean
1.32
1.33
Goals Std
1.05
75.9%
Scored 1+ rate
76.5%
46.6%
Scored 2+ rate
38.2%
22.4%
Scored 3+ rate
14.7%
1.90
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.90
Goals against per game
1.53
63.8%
Conceding rate
82.4%
1.03
Goals against per game
1.69
70.0%
Conceding rate
81.3%
58
History Matches
34
0.90
Conceded Mean
1.53
0.88
Conceded Std
1.14
17.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.2%
8.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.5%
1.03
Venue Conceded Mean
1.69
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
36.2%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
36.2%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
36.2%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
34
0.86
Result entropy
0.98
1.51
Goal Difference Std
1.28
13.88
Stability score
2.09
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
31
21
Lead Matches
6
81.0%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.67
8
Trailing Matches
8
25.0%
Non-loss rate
12.5%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
31
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
140.9
Rest days
92.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
31
Normal Rest History Matches
20
1.81
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.35
26
Long Rest History Matches
13
2.19
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.69
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.21
Portability PPG Std
—
0.43
Portability PPG Range
—
70.08
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
34
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO165.0
PPG0.91
GF0.25
GA-0.63
PPG1.19
PPG1.00
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches24
Clean-sheet rate18.6%
Failed-to-score rate0.6%
History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate11.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches24
Goals Mean0.25
Goals Std0.28
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate8.3%
Scored 3+ rate7.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.65
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.45
History Matches24
Conceded Mean-0.63
Conceded Std-0.26
Clean-sheet rate18.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.24
Conceded 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Conceded Mean-0.65
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.69
History Matches24
Result entropy-0.12
Goal Difference Std0.23
Stability score11.79
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.26
Eligible Matches27
Lead Matches15
Lead Win Rate31.0%
Lead Points Retention0.21
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate12.5%
Trailing Win Rate12.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches27
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.31
Second Half Goals For Mean0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days48.94
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.46
Long Rest History Matches13
Long Rest Points Per Match1.50
Current Team ELO165.0
Current Opponent ELO-165.0
Current ELO Difference330.0
Expected score0.44
History Matches24
Residual Mean0.17
Overperformance11.70
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Caudal

W
Langreo0–1Caudal1 Nov · away
Pick: Caudal 41% · hit
W
Caudal2–1Avilés Stadium25 Oct · home
Pick: Caudal 67% · hit
D
Lealtad0–0Caudal18 Oct · away
Pick: Caudal 46% · missed
D
Praviano1–1Caudal4 Oct · away
Pick: Caudal 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Llanes

W
Llanes1–0Astur1 Nov · home
Pick: Llanes 62% · hit
L
Langreo1–0Llanes24 Oct · away
Pick: Langreo 55% · hit
D
Llanes1–1Andes18 Oct · home
Pick: Llanes 63% · missed
D
Llanes1–1Condal4 Oct · home
Pick: Llanes 57% · missed
L
Llanes0–1Sporting Gijón II29 Aug · home
Pick: Sporting Gijón II 55% · hit

About this match

Caudal and Llanes meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Caudal win 71.5%, draw 16.5%, Llanes win 11.9%. The pick is Caudal win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.7%. Both teams to score: 54.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.