ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 Spain Group 2 - 10 2026

Mosconia vs Sporting Gijón II

Mosconia Home · Elo 1,533
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sporting Gijón II Away · Elo 1,615
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Draw
Mosconia win
29.7%
DrawPick
35.3%
Sporting Gijón II win
35.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.4%
No52.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.5%
Under 2.550.5%

How much we know

Mosconia history54 matches
Sporting Gijón II history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why a draw is the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sporting Gijón II are rated 82 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,615 against 1,533. On rating alone Sporting Gijón II would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Sporting Gijón II score more

    1.43 goals a game over 54 matches for Mosconia, against 1.92 over 60 for Sporting Gijón II.

  • Defences are close

    Mosconia concede 0.80 a game, Sporting Gijón II 0.80.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    39% of Mosconia matches, against 47% for Sporting Gijón II. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mosconia
Sporting Gijón II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1533.3
ELO
1615.0
54
ELO · Matches
60
1533.3
Current Team ELO
1615.0
1615.0
Current Opponent ELO
1533.3
-81.69
Current ELO Difference
81.69
0.38
Expected score
0.62
54
History Matches
60
0.03
Residual Mean
0.10
52.14
Overperformance
57.45
-0.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.60
0.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.60
0.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.78
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
60
1.69
PPG
1.88
48.1%
Win rate
51.7%
24.1%
Draw rate
33.3%
27.8%
Loss rate
15.0%
74.1%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
38.9%
Over 2.5 rate
46.7%
13.0%
Over 3.5 rate
35.0%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.13
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
28
1.85
PPG
1.64
51.9%
Win rate
42.9%
29.6%
Draw rate
35.7%
18.5%
Loss rate
21.4%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
60.7%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
39.3%
7.4%
Over 3.5 rate
35.7%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
27
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.43
Goals for per game
1.92
79.6%
Scoring rate
80.0%
44.4%
BTTS rate
35.0%
1.48
Goals for per game
1.50
85.2%
Scoring rate
75.0%
40.7%
BTTS rate
39.3%
54
History Matches
60
1.43
Goals Mean
1.92
1.13
Goals Std
1.66
79.6%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
40.7%
Scored 2+ rate
53.3%
14.8%
Scored 3+ rate
28.3%
1.48
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.80
Goals against per game
0.80
57.4%
Conceding rate
43.3%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.04
48.1%
Conceding rate
50.0%
54
History Matches
60
0.80
Conceded Mean
0.80
0.80
Conceded Std
1.14
20.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.3%
1.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.3%
0.67
Venue Conceded Mean
1.04
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
42.6%
Clean-sheet rate
56.7%
20.4%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
51.9%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
14.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
42.6%
Clean-sheet rate
56.7%
20.4%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
51.9%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
14.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
42.6%
Clean-sheet rate
56.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
60
0.96
Result entropy
0.90
1.57
Goal Difference Std
2.13
4.38
Stability score
9.71
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
60
18
Lead Matches
26
94.4%
Lead Win Rate
80.8%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.87
10
Trailing Matches
11
50.0%
Non-loss rate
45.5%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.02
0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.37
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
84.86
Rest days
78.93
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
29
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.28
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.03
24
Long Rest History Matches
23
2.13
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.70
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.20
Portability PPG Std
0.13
0.40
Portability PPG Range
0.34
71.43
Portability Score
79.28
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-81.69
PPG-0.20
GF-0.49
GA0.00
PPG0.21
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate0.4%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate1.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-6
Goals Mean-0.49
Goals Std-0.52
Scored 1+ rate0.00
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean-0.02
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.32
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean0.00
Conceded Std-0.33
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.37
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.70
History Matches-6
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.56
Stability score-5.33
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.82
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate13.7%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate4.5%
Trailing Win Rate10.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.07
Portability PPG Range0.06
Portability Score-7.86
Rest days5.94
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.75
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.43
Current Team ELO-81.69
Current Opponent ELO81.69
Current ELO Difference-163.4
Expected score-0.23
History Matches-6
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.28

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Mosconia

L
Praviano5–2Mosconia31 Oct · away
Pick: Mosconia 41% · missed
W
Mosconia3–1L'Entregu25 Oct · home
Pick: Mosconia 54% · hit
L
Covadonga4–0Mosconia18 Oct · away
Pick: Covadonga 42% · hit
D
Astur0–0Mosconia4 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 35% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sporting Gijón II

L
Sporting Gijón II0–2San Martín31 Oct · home
Pick: Sporting Gijón II 61% · missed
W
Siero1–2Sporting Gijón II24 Oct · away
Pick: Sporting Gijón II 48% · hit
W
Sporting Gijón II4–0Colunga18 Oct · home
Pick: Sporting Gijón II 69% · hit
D
Sporting Gijón II1–1Langreo4 Oct · home
Pick: Sporting Gijón II 61% · missed
W
Llanes0–1Sporting Gijón II29 Aug · away
Pick: Sporting Gijón II 55% · hit

About this match

Mosconia and Sporting Gijón II meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Mosconia win 29.7%, draw 35.3%, Sporting Gijón II win 35.1%. The pick is a draw. Over 2.5 goals: 49.5%. Both teams to score: 47.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.