Công An Nhân Dân vs Ho Chi Minh
Công An Nhân Dân
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ho Chi Minh
Match result probability Model pick: Công An Nhân Dân win
Công An Nhân Dân winPick
42.2%
Draw
27.0%
Ho Chi Minh win
30.8%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes53.7%
No46.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.557.6%
Under 2.542.4%
How much we know
Công An Nhân Dân history65 matches
Ho Chi Minh history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Công An Nhân Dân
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:15 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 12:15 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Công An Nhân Dân are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Công An Nhân Dân are rated 122 Elo points higher
Elo 1,677 against 1,555. On rating alone Công An Nhân Dân would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.
-
Công An Nhân Dân score far more
2.09 goals a game over 65 matches for Công An Nhân Dân, against 1.19 over 67 for Ho Chi Minh.
-
Công An Nhân Dân concede fewer
Công An Nhân Dân concede 1.00 a game, Ho Chi Minh 1.24.
-
Công An Nhân Dân games more often go over 2.5 goals
60% of Công An Nhân Dân matches, against 42% for Ho Chi Minh. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Công An Nhân Dân
Ho Chi Minh
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1676.9
ELO
1554.7
65
ELO · Matches
67
1676.9
Current Team ELO
1554.7
1554.7
Current Opponent ELO
1676.9
122.2
Current ELO Difference
-122.2
0.67
Expected score
0.33
65
History Matches
67
0.13
Residual Mean
0.04
60.14
Overperformance
52.85
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.17
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
0.60
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.80
2.00
Goals for per game
1.50
0.80
Goals against per game
0.90
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.11
Overall performance9 signals 90
65
Matches
67
2.05
PPG
1.48
60.0%
Win rate
41.8%
24.6%
Draw rate
22.4%
15.4%
Loss rate
35.8%
86.2%
Over 1.5 rate
67.2%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
41.8%
36.9%
Over 3.5 rate
22.4%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
Venue performance10 signals 100
32
Matches
35
2.41
PPG
1.49
71.9%
Win rate
42.9%
25.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
3.1%
Loss rate
37.1%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
45.7%
43.8%
Over 3.5 rate
25.7%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
32
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.09
Goals for per game
1.19
87.7%
Scoring rate
70.1%
61.5%
BTTS rate
43.3%
2.38
Goals for per game
1.17
90.6%
Scoring rate
74.3%
62.5%
BTTS rate
54.3%
65
History Matches
67
2.09
Goals Mean
1.19
1.39
Goals Std
1.12
87.7%
Scored 1+ rate
70.1%
63.1%
Scored 2+ rate
29.9%
36.9%
Scored 3+ rate
14.9%
2.38
Venue Goals Mean
1.17
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.00
Goals against per game
1.24
69.2%
Conceding rate
65.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.49
65.6%
Conceding rate
77.1%
65
History Matches
67
1.00
Conceded Mean
1.24
0.86
Conceded Std
1.22
26.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.8%
3.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.9%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.49
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
12.3%
Failed-to-score rate
29.9%
34.4%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
9.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
12.3%
Failed-to-score rate
29.9%
34.4%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
9.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
65
History Matches
67
0.86
Result entropy
0.97
1.61
Goal Difference Std
1.69
14.48
Stability score
2.84
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
65
Eligible Matches
66
31
Lead Matches
23
77.4%
Lead Win Rate
82.6%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.86
11
Trailing Matches
20
45.5%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
36.4%
Trailing Win Rate
5.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.98
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
1.11
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
88.11
Rest days
76.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
20
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.55
46
Normal Rest History Matches
30
2.13
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.17
17
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.06
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
8
Competition Season Count
5
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.60
Portability PPG Std
0.77
1.63
Portability PPG Range
2.07
45.65
Portability Score
39.40
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
65
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO122.2
PPG0.57
GF0.90
GA-0.24
PPG0.92
PPG0.00
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate11.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.90
Goals Std0.27
Scored 1+ rate17.5%
Scored 2+ rate33.2%
Scored 3+ rate22.0%
Venue Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.07
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.24
Conceded Std-0.36
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.05
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.12
Goal Difference Std-0.07
Stability score11.64
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.05
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate15.5%
Trailing Win Rate31.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.17
Portability PPG Range-0.44
Portability Score6.25
Rest days12.03
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-19
Short Rest Points Per Match1.45
Normal Rest History Matches16
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.96
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.36
Current Team ELO122.2
Current Opponent ELO-122.2
Current ELO Difference244.5
Expected score0.34
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance7.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Công An Nhân Dân
D
Công An Nhân Dân0–0Kyoto Sanga3 Nov · home
Pick: Công An Nhân Dân 40% · missed D
Song Lam Nghe An1–1Công An Nhân Dân31 Oct · away
Pick: Công An Nhân Dân 59% · missed W
SHANGHAI SIPG2–3Công An Nhân Dân27 Oct · away
Pick: SHANGHAI SIPG 39% · missed D
Công An Nhân Dân1–1Thanh Hóa22 Oct · home
Pick: Công An Nhân Dân 68% · missed L
Công An Nhân Dân1–2Ha Noi18 Oct · home
Pick: Công An Nhân Dân 70% · missed Ho Chi Minh
L
Ho Chi Minh0–1Da Nang1 Nov · home
Pick: Ho Chi Minh 63% · missed W
Pho Hien0–1Ho Chi Minh1 Nov · away
Pick: Ho Chi Minh 50% · hit W
Ho Chi Minh2–1Binh Dinh28 Oct · home
Pick: Ho Chi Minh 66% · hit W
Phu Dong0–1Ho Chi Minh25 Oct · away
Pick: Ho Chi Minh 43% · hit D
Bóng đá Huế2–2Ho Chi Minh24 Oct · away
Pick: Ho Chi Minh 49% · missed About this match
Công An Nhân Dân and Ho Chi Minh meet in V.League 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:15 UTC. The match is played at Hang Day Stadium, Hanoi. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Công An Nhân Dân win 42.2%, draw 27.0%, Ho Chi Minh win 30.8%. The pick is Công An Nhân Dân win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.6%. Both teams to score: 53.7%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.