ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 Spain Group 10 - 10 2026

Córdoba II vs Atlético Onubense

Córdoba II Home · Elo 1,504
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Atlético Onubense Away · Elo 1,553
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Córdoba II win
Córdoba II winPick
44.9%
Draw
31.7%
Atlético Onubense win
23.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.9%
No55.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.541.3%
Under 2.558.7%

How much we know

Córdoba II history48 matches
Atlético Onubense history17 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Córdoba II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Atlético Onubense are rated 48 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,553 against 1,504. On rating alone Atlético Onubense would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.21 goals a game over 48 matches for Córdoba II, against 1.29 over 17 for Atlético Onubense.

  • Atlético Onubense concede fewer

    Córdoba II concede 1.13 a game, Atlético Onubense 0.71.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    40% of Córdoba II matches, against 35% for Atlético Onubense. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Córdoba II
Atlético Onubense
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1504.4
ELO
1552.9
48
ELO · Matches
17
1504.4
Current Team ELO
1552.9
1552.9
Current Opponent ELO
1504.4
-48.47
Current ELO Difference
48.47
0.43
Expected score
0.57
48
History Matches
17
0.01
Residual Mean
0.15
50.83
Overperformance
56.86
0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.25
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
2.00
2.00
Goals for per game
1.40
0.40
Goals against per game
0.80
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
2.30
1.50
Goals for per game
1.80
0.80
Goals against per game
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.25
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.79
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.54
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
17
1.40
PPG
1.88
35.4%
Win rate
52.9%
33.3%
Draw rate
29.4%
31.3%
Loss rate
17.6%
68.8%
Over 1.5 rate
64.7%
39.6%
Over 2.5 rate
35.3%
22.9%
Over 3.5 rate
5.9%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
9
1.50
PPG
2.00
38.5%
Win rate
55.6%
34.6%
Draw rate
33.3%
26.9%
Loss rate
11.1%
69.2%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
34.6%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
19.2%
Over 3.5 rate
11.1%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
26
History Matches
9
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.21
Goals for per game
1.29
68.8%
Scoring rate
70.6%
43.8%
BTTS rate
35.3%
1.19
Goals for per game
1.78
65.4%
Scoring rate
88.9%
34.6%
BTTS rate
66.7%
48
History Matches
17
1.21
Goals Mean
1.29
1.17
Goals Std
1.18
68.8%
Scored 1+ rate
70.6%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
35.3%
10.4%
Scored 3+ rate
17.6%
1.19
Venue Goals Mean
1.78
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.13
Goals against per game
0.71
60.4%
Conceding rate
52.9%
0.88
Goals against per game
1.00
53.8%
Conceding rate
77.8%
48
History Matches
17
1.13
Conceded Mean
0.71
1.17
Conceded Std
0.82
35.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
11.8%
10.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.9%
0.88
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
39.6%
Clean-sheet rate
47.1%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
34.6%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
39.6%
Clean-sheet rate
47.1%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
34.6%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
39.6%
Clean-sheet rate
47.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
17
1.00
Result entropy
0.91
1.66
Goal Difference Std
1.61
0.12
Stability score
8.73
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
17
15
Lead Matches
8
73.3%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.83
15
Trailing Matches
4
26.7%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
17
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.35
0.54
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.35
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
182.3
Rest days
406.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
6
1.28
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.67
17
Long Rest History Matches
9
1.65
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.11
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.08
Portability PPG Std
0.27
0.16
Portability PPG Range
0.55
86.49
Portability Score
64.62
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
17
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-48.47
PPG-0.49
GF-0.09
GA0.42
PPG-0.50
PPG0.60
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches31
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate1.8%
History Matches17
Clean-sheet rate23.9%
Failed-to-score rate23.5%
History Matches31
Goals Mean-0.09
Goals Std0.00
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.59
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.22
History Matches31
Conceded Mean0.42
Conceded Std0.34
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate23.7%
Conceded 3+ rate4.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.41
History Matches31
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std0.05
Stability score-8.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.26
Eligible Matches31
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches11
Non-loss rate-0.23
Trailing Win Rate-0.25
Halftime Coverage Matches31
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.20
Portability PPG Range-0.39
Portability Score21.87
Rest days-223.8
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches23
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.39
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.46
Current Team ELO-48.47
Current Opponent ELO48.47
Current ELO Difference-96.95
Expected score-0.14
History Matches31
Residual Mean-0.14
Overperformance-6.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Córdoba II

D
Córdoba II0–0Cádiz II25 Oct · home
Pick: Córdoba II 39% · missed
L
Conil2–0Córdoba II4 Oct · away
Pick: Conil 37% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Atlético Onubense

No earlier results with our pick yet

About this match

Córdoba II and Atlético Onubense meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Córdoba II win 44.9%, draw 31.7%, Atlético Onubense win 23.4%. The pick is Córdoba II win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.3%. Both teams to score: 44.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.