ScoreProb
FA Cup England 1/128-finals 2026

Cray Wanderers vs Stockport County

Cray Wanderers Home · Elo 1,552
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Stockport County Away · Elo 1,613
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Stockport County win
Cray Wanderers win
28.9%
Draw
19.2%
Stockport County winPick
51.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.4%
No41.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.2%
Under 2.535.8%

How much we know

Cray Wanderers history69 matches
Stockport County history92 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Stockport County are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Stockport County are rated 60 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,613 against 1,552. On rating alone Stockport County would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Cray Wanderers score more

    1.87 goals a game over 69 matches for Cray Wanderers, against 1.62 over 92 for Stockport County.

  • Stockport County concede fewer

    Cray Wanderers concede 1.61 a game, Stockport County 1.14.

  • Cray Wanderers games more often go over 2.5 goals

    65% of Cray Wanderers matches, against 53% for Stockport County. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cray Wanderers
Stockport County
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1552.5
ELO
1612.6
69
ELO · Matches
92
1552.5
Current Team ELO
1612.6
1612.6
Current Opponent ELO
1552.5
-60.08
Current ELO Difference
60.08
0.41
Expected score
0.59
69
History Matches
92
0.04
Residual Mean
0.06
53.36
Overperformance
54.69
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
2.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
2.20
1.90
Goals for per game
1.90
1.70
Goals against per game
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.51
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.42
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.37
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.47
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.66
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
92
1.58
PPG
1.84
42.0%
Win rate
53.3%
31.9%
Draw rate
23.9%
26.1%
Loss rate
22.8%
91.3%
Over 1.5 rate
77.2%
65.2%
Over 2.5 rate
53.3%
44.9%
Over 3.5 rate
27.2%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
46
1.78
PPG
1.59
48.6%
Win rate
43.5%
32.4%
Draw rate
28.3%
18.9%
Loss rate
28.3%
91.9%
Over 1.5 rate
76.1%
67.6%
Over 2.5 rate
47.8%
48.6%
Over 3.5 rate
30.4%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
37
History Matches
46
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.87
Goals for per game
1.62
88.4%
Scoring rate
84.8%
72.5%
BTTS rate
59.8%
2.05
Goals for per game
1.41
89.2%
Scoring rate
82.6%
73.0%
BTTS rate
56.5%
69
History Matches
92
1.87
Goals Mean
1.62
1.20
Goals Std
1.19
88.4%
Scored 1+ rate
84.8%
56.5%
Scored 2+ rate
46.7%
30.4%
Scored 3+ rate
21.7%
2.05
Venue Goals Mean
1.41
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.61
Goals against per game
1.14
81.2%
Conceding rate
70.7%
1.46
Goals against per game
1.22
78.4%
Conceding rate
71.7%
69
History Matches
92
1.61
Conceded Mean
1.14
1.40
Conceded Std
1.03
44.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.3%
18.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.0%
1.46
Venue Conceded Mean
1.22
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
11.6%
Failed-to-score rate
15.2%
21.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
10.8%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
11.6%
Failed-to-score rate
15.2%
21.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
10.8%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
92
0.98
Result entropy
0.92
1.91
Goal Difference Std
1.49
1.76
Stability score
7.62
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
68
Eligible Matches
92
27
Lead Matches
28
74.1%
Lead Win Rate
78.6%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.85
15
Trailing Matches
23
46.7%
Non-loss rate
47.8%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
21.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
68
Halftime Coverage Matches
92
0.97
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.98
1.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.01
Rest days
78.01
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
58
Normal Rest History Matches
70
1.59
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.97
7
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.86
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
10
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.57
1.25
Portability PPG Range
1.67
51.60
Portability Score
46.77
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
92
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-60.08
PPG-0.26
GF0.25
GA0.47
PPG0.20
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-23
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-23
Goals Mean0.25
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate3.6%
Scored 2+ rate9.8%
Scored 3+ rate8.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.64
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.57
History Matches-23
Conceded Mean0.47
Conceded Std0.37
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate5.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.04
History Matches-23
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std0.42
Stability score-5.87
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.19
Eligible Matches-24
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate-0.01
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches-24
First Half Goals For Mean0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.41
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.10
Portability PPG Range-0.42
Portability Score4.84
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match0.33
Normal Rest History Matches-12
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.39
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.36
Current Team ELO-60.08
Current Opponent ELO60.08
Current ELO Difference-120.2
Expected score-0.17
History Matches-23
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-1.33
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Cray Wanderers

W
Brentwood Town1–4Cray Wanderers31 Oct · away
Pick: Cray Wanderers 43% · hit
W
Berkhamsted1–2Cray Wanderers24 Oct · away
Pick: Cray Wanderers 39% · hit
D
Bedford Town0–0Cray Wanderers17 Oct · away
Pick: Bedford Town 44% · missed
W
Cray Wanderers4–1Welling United31 Aug · home
Pick: Welling United 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Stockport County

W
Stockport County2–1AFC Wimbledon31 Oct · home
Pick: Stockport County 58% · hit
L
Oxford United1–0Stockport County27 Oct · away
Pick: Oxford United 37% · hit
D
Notts County1–1Stockport County24 Oct · away
Pick: Stockport County 40% · missed
W
Doncaster0–2Stockport County20 Oct · away
Pick: Doncaster 38% · missed
W
Stockport County1–0Bromley17 Oct · home
Pick: Stockport County 46% · hit

About this match

Cray Wanderers and Stockport County meet in FA Cup on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:15 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Cray Wanderers win 28.9%, draw 19.2%, Stockport County win 51.9%. The pick is Stockport County win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.2%. Both teams to score: 58.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.