ScoreProb
FA Cup England 1/128-finals 2026

Oldham vs Sheffield Wednesday

Oldham Home · Elo 1,485
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sheffield Wednesday Away · Elo 1,351
Boundary Park, Oldham Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Oldham win
Oldham winPick
54.2%
Draw
21.4%
Sheffield Wednesday win
24.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.0%
No51.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.2%
Under 2.545.8%

How much we know

Oldham history84 matches
Sheffield Wednesday history76 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 17:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Oldham are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Oldham are rated 134 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,485 against 1,351. On rating alone Oldham would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Oldham score far more

    1.27 goals a game over 84 matches for Oldham, against 0.76 over 76 for Sheffield Wednesday.

  • Oldham concede fewer

    Oldham concede 1.18 a game, Sheffield Wednesday 1.78.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    49% of Oldham matches, against 50% for Sheffield Wednesday. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Oldham
Sheffield Wednesday
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1484.6
ELO
1350.9
84
ELO · Matches
76
1484.6
Current Team ELO
1350.9
1350.9
Current Opponent ELO
1484.6
133.7
Current ELO Difference
-133.7
0.68
Expected score
0.32
84
History Matches
76
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.09
49.62
Overperformance
42.55
-0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
0.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
0.90
1.60
Goals against per game
1.70
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.49
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.89
Overall performance9 signals
90
84
Matches
76
1.35
PPG
0.63
35.7%
Win rate
11.8%
27.4%
Draw rate
27.6%
36.9%
Loss rate
60.5%
69.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.6%
48.8%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
23.7%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
Venue performance10 signals
100
44
Matches
38
1.50
PPG
0.68
40.9%
Win rate
13.2%
27.3%
Draw rate
28.9%
31.8%
Loss rate
57.9%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
78.9%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
57.9%
22.7%
Over 3.5 rate
34.2%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
44
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.27
Goals for per game
0.76
71.4%
Scoring rate
53.9%
45.2%
BTTS rate
48.7%
1.36
Goals for per game
0.87
75.0%
Scoring rate
57.9%
43.2%
BTTS rate
50.0%
84
History Matches
76
1.27
Goals Mean
0.76
1.08
Goals Std
0.86
71.4%
Scored 1+ rate
53.9%
38.1%
Scored 2+ rate
17.1%
15.5%
Scored 3+ rate
5.3%
1.36
Venue Goals Mean
0.87
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.18
Goals against per game
1.78
63.1%
Conceding rate
88.2%
1.16
Goals against per game
1.84
61.4%
Conceding rate
81.6%
84
History Matches
76
1.18
Conceded Mean
1.78
1.29
Conceded Std
1.12
29.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
56.6%
16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.0%
1.16
Venue Conceded Mean
1.84
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
36.9%
Clean-sheet rate
11.8%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
46.1%
38.6%
Clean-sheet rate
18.4%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
42.1%
36.9%
Clean-sheet rate
11.8%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
46.1%
38.6%
Clean-sheet rate
18.4%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
42.1%
36.9%
Clean-sheet rate
11.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
84
History Matches
76
0.99
Result entropy
0.83
1.79
Goal Difference Std
1.46
0.76
Stability score
16.99
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
84
Eligible Matches
75
25
Lead Matches
12
84.0%
Lead Win Rate
33.3%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.50
27
Trailing Matches
35
37.0%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
84
Halftime Coverage Matches
75
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.36
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.41
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.99
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.14
Rest days
74.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
12
1.40
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.33
61
Normal Rest History Matches
49
1.41
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.73
17
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.18
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
10
Competition Season Count
8
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.61
Portability PPG Std
0.25
1.52
Portability PPG Range
0.61
44.94
Portability Score
66.24
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
84
Clean History Matches
76
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO133.7
PPG0.71
GF0.51
GA-0.60
PPG0.82
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate25.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate20.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches8
Goals Mean0.51
Goals Std0.23
Scored 1+ rate17.5%
Scored 2+ rate21.0%
Scored 3+ rate10.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.16
History Matches8
Conceded Mean-0.60
Conceded Std0.17
Clean-sheet rate25.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.27
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.68
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.29
History Matches8
Result entropy0.16
Goal Difference Std0.33
Stability score-16.23
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.16
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches13
Lead Win Rate50.7%
Lead Points Retention0.34
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate22.8%
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals For Mean0.35
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.33
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.36
Portability PPG Range0.91
Portability Score-21.30
Rest days3.20
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-7
Short Rest Points Per Match1.07
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.68
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.68
Current Team ELO133.7
Current Opponent ELO-133.7
Current ELO Difference267.4
Expected score0.37
History Matches8
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance7.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.45

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Oldham

W
Northampton0–1Oldham3 Nov · away
Pick: Oldham 39% · hit
L
Oldham0–1Crawley Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Oldham 50% · missed
D
Barnet1–1Oldham24 Oct · away
Pick: Barnet 55% · missed
L
Walsall3–0Oldham20 Oct · away
Pick: Walsall 46% · hit
W
Oldham4–1Cheltenham17 Oct · home
Pick: Oldham 52% · hit

Sheffield Wednesday

D
Sheffield Wednesday1–1Blackpool1 Nov · home
Pick: Sheffield Wednesday 38% · missed
D
Sheffield Wednesday1–1Cambridge United27 Oct · home
Pick: Cambridge United 39% · missed
L
Doncaster2–0Sheffield Wednesday24 Oct · away
Pick: Doncaster 47% · hit
L
Notts County2–0Sheffield Wednesday20 Oct · away
Pick: Notts County 53% · hit
W
Sheffield Wednesday5–0AFC Wimbledon17 Oct · home
Pick: Sheffield Wednesday 45% · hit

About this match

Oldham and Sheffield Wednesday meet in FA Cup on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:15 UTC. The match is played at Boundary Park, Oldham. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Oldham win 54.2%, draw 21.4%, Sheffield Wednesday win 24.4%. The pick is Oldham win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.2%. Both teams to score: 49.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.