ScoreProb
FA Cup England 1/128-finals 2026

Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon

Crewe Home · Elo 1,528
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
AFC Wimbledon Away · Elo 1,452
Alexandra Stadium, Crewe Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Crewe win
Crewe winPick
38.0%
Draw
25.6%
AFC Wimbledon win
36.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.9%
No47.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.4%
Under 2.545.6%

How much we know

Crewe history88 matches
AFC Wimbledon history91 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.0%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Crewe are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Crewe are rated 76 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,528 against 1,452. On rating alone Crewe would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Crewe score more

    1.56 goals a game over 88 matches for Crewe, against 1.09 over 91 for AFC Wimbledon.

  • Defences are close

    Crewe concede 1.30 a game, AFC Wimbledon 1.33.

  • Crewe games more often go over 2.5 goals

    53% of Crewe matches, against 43% for AFC Wimbledon. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Crewe
AFC Wimbledon
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1527.7
ELO
1452.1
88
ELO · Matches
91
1527.7
Current Team ELO
1452.1
1452.1
Current Opponent ELO
1527.7
75.66
Current ELO Difference
-75.66
0.61
Expected score
0.39
88
History Matches
91
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.02
51.30
Overperformance
47.97
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.60
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
0.90
Goals against per game
1.40
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.69
Overall performance9 signals
90
88
Matches
91
1.42
PPG
1.25
39.8%
Win rate
34.1%
22.7%
Draw rate
23.1%
37.5%
Loss rate
42.9%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
64.8%
53.4%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
31.8%
Over 3.5 rate
22.0%
2.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
Venue performance10 signals
100
44
Matches
45
1.50
PPG
1.13
43.2%
Win rate
28.9%
20.5%
Draw rate
26.7%
36.4%
Loss rate
44.4%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
54.5%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
2.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
44
History Matches
45
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.56
Goals for per game
1.09
71.6%
Scoring rate
62.6%
53.4%
BTTS rate
45.1%
1.48
Goals for per game
1.04
77.3%
Scoring rate
62.2%
54.5%
BTTS rate
51.1%
88
History Matches
91
1.56
Goals Mean
1.09
1.60
Goals Std
1.12
71.6%
Scored 1+ rate
62.6%
38.6%
Scored 2+ rate
30.8%
22.7%
Scored 3+ rate
11.0%
1.48
Venue Goals Mean
1.04
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.30
Goals against per game
1.33
75.0%
Conceding rate
74.7%
1.39
Goals against per game
1.42
75.0%
Conceding rate
84.4%
88
History Matches
91
1.30
Conceded Mean
1.33
1.23
Conceded Std
1.20
33.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.0%
14.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.6%
1.39
Venue Conceded Mean
1.42
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.3%
28.4%
Failed-to-score rate
37.4%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
37.8%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.3%
28.4%
Failed-to-score rate
37.4%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
37.8%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
88
History Matches
91
0.98
Result entropy
0.97
2.20
Goal Difference Std
1.65
2.49
Stability score
2.75
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
87
Eligible Matches
91
27
Lead Matches
25
81.5%
Lead Win Rate
72.0%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.80
24
Trailing Matches
22
20.8%
Non-loss rate
9.1%
4.2%
Trailing Win Rate
4.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
87
Halftime Coverage Matches
91
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.84
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.86
71
Normal Rest History Matches
71
1.32
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.17
10
Long Rest History Matches
12
2.10
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
9
Competition Season Count
10
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.54
Portability PPG Std
0.67
1.66
Portability PPG Range
2.00
48.01
Portability Score
42.62
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
88
Clean History Matches
91
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO75.66
PPG0.17
GF0.47
GA-0.03
PPG0.37
PPG1.40
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate9.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-3
Goals Mean0.47
Goals Std0.49
Scored 1+ rate9.0%
Scored 2+ rate7.9%
Scored 3+ rate11.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.43
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.15
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.03
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Conceded 2+ rate0.00
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.31
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.55
Stability score-0.26
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.57
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate9.5%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate11.7%
Trailing Win Rate0.00
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.13
Portability PPG Range-0.34
Portability Score5.39
Rest days-3.20
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.64
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.15
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.10
Current Team ELO75.66
Current Opponent ELO-75.66
Current ELO Difference151.3
Expected score0.21
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Crewe

D
Crewe1–1Barnet31 Oct · home
Pick: Barnet 37% · missed
L
Chesterfield5–1Crewe24 Oct · away
Pick: Crewe 39% · missed
L
Exeter City2–0Crewe20 Oct · away
Pick: Crewe 39% · missed
W
Crewe3–2Rochdale17 Oct · home
Pick: Crewe 45% · hit
D
Crewe2–2Walsall1 Sep · home
Pick: Crewe 37% · missed

AFC Wimbledon

L
Stockport County2–1AFC Wimbledon31 Oct · away
Pick: Stockport County 58% · hit
L
AFC Wimbledon1–2Arsenal U2127 Oct · home
Pick: AFC Wimbledon 71% · missed
D
AFC Wimbledon1–1Wycombe24 Oct · home
Pick: Wycombe 42% · missed
L
AFC Wimbledon0–3Mansfield Town20 Oct · home
Pick: Mansfield Town 38% · hit
L
Sheffield Wednesday5–0AFC Wimbledon17 Oct · away
Pick: Sheffield Wednesday 45% · hit

About this match

Crewe and AFC Wimbledon meet in FA Cup on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Alexandra Stadium, Crewe. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Crewe win 38.0%, draw 25.6%, AFC Wimbledon win 36.4%. The pick is Crewe win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.4%. Both teams to score: 52.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.