ScoreProb
Serie A Brazil Round 34 2026

Cruzeiro vs Bahia

Cruzeiro Home · Elo 1,664
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bahia Away · Elo 1,617
Estádio Mineirão, Belo Horizonte Referee: R. Klein Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bahia win
Cruzeiro win
34.8%
Draw
27.6%
Bahia winPick
37.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.1%
No46.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.0%
Under 2.555.0%

How much we know

Cruzeiro history80 matches
Bahia history86 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 15 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 00:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Bahia are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Cruzeiro are rated 46 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,664 against 1,617. On rating alone Cruzeiro would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Bahia score more

    1.40 goals a game over 80 matches for Cruzeiro, against 1.57 over 86 for Bahia.

  • Defences are close

    Cruzeiro concede 0.96 a game, Bahia 1.06.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of Cruzeiro matches, against 47% for Bahia. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cruzeiro
Bahia
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1663.5
ELO
1617.2
80
ELO · Matches
86
1663.5
Current Team ELO
1617.2
1617.2
Current Opponent ELO
1663.5
46.31
Current ELO Difference
-46.31
0.57
Expected score
0.43
80
History Matches
86
0.11
Residual Mean
0.07
58.86
Overperformance
55.51
0.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.40
2.00
Goals for per game
1.20
0.80
Goals against per game
0.80
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
1.30
0.70
Goals against per game
1.10
70.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
0.94
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.17
Overall performance9 signals
90
80
Matches
86
1.75
PPG
1.77
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
26.7%
25.0%
Loss rate
23.3%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
47.5%
Over 2.5 rate
46.5%
16.3%
Over 3.5 rate
24.4%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
Venue performance10 signals
100
44
Matches
42
1.93
PPG
1.29
59.1%
Win rate
33.3%
15.9%
Draw rate
28.6%
25.0%
Loss rate
38.1%
70.5%
Over 1.5 rate
69.0%
47.7%
Over 2.5 rate
38.1%
15.9%
Over 3.5 rate
21.4%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
44
History Matches
42
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.40
Goals for per game
1.57
80.0%
Scoring rate
81.4%
51.3%
BTTS rate
51.2%
1.52
Goals for per game
1.14
84.1%
Scoring rate
69.0%
47.7%
BTTS rate
47.6%
1.30
Goals for per game
1.42
80.0%
Scoring rate
89.5%
65.0%
BTTS rate
68.4%
80
History Matches
86
1.40
Goals Mean
1.57
1.09
Goals Std
1.31
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
81.4%
40.0%
Scored 2+ rate
43.0%
13.8%
Scored 3+ rate
17.4%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
1.14
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.96
Goals against per game
1.06
63.8%
Conceding rate
62.8%
0.77
Goals against per game
1.31
56.8%
Conceding rate
71.4%
1.35
Goals against per game
1.21
80.0%
Conceding rate
68.4%
80
History Matches
86
0.96
Conceded Mean
1.06
0.97
Conceded Std
1.07
22.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.2%
7.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.3%
0.77
Venue Conceded Mean
1.31
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.2%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.6%
43.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
15.9%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
10.5%
36.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.2%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.6%
43.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
15.9%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
36.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
80
History Matches
86
0.95
Result entropy
0.95
1.63
Goal Difference Std
1.72
5.36
Stability score
5.47
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
79
Eligible Matches
86
25
Lead Matches
32
88.0%
Lead Win Rate
84.4%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.88
19
Trailing Matches
20
36.8%
Non-loss rate
60.0%
10.5%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
79
Halftime Coverage Matches
86
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.49
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.04
Rest days
74.23
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
14
Short Rest History Matches
11
1.64
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.64
45
Normal Rest History Matches
51
1.69
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.65
20
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.90
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.57
Competition & season17 signals
170
20
Matches
19
1.70
PPG
1.58
50.0%
Win rate
36.8%
20.0%
Draw rate
47.4%
30.0%
Loss rate
15.8%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
78.9%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
47.4%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
26.3%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.10
20
Current Competition Matches
19
1.70
Current Competition PPG
1.58
-0.05
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.21
10
Competition Season Count
10
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.50
Portability PPG Std
0.44
1.57
Portability PPG Range
1.02
50.15
Portability Score
53.14
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
80
Clean History Matches
86
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO46.31
PPG-0.02
GF-0.17
GA-0.10
PPG0.12
PPG0.65
PPG1.20
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate1.4%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate14.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-6
Goals Mean-0.17
Goals Std-0.22
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.38
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.01
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean-0.10
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.68
History Matches-6
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.09
Stability score-0.11
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.22
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate3.6%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.23
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.12
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.26
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range0.55
Portability Score-2.98
Rest days0.81
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.99
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.04
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.33
Current Team ELO46.31
Current Opponent ELO-46.31
Current ELO Difference92.62
Expected score0.13
History Matches-6
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Cruzeiro

W
Atletico-MG0–1Cruzeiro29 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico-MG 47% · missed
W
Cruzeiro1–0Remo23 Oct · home
Pick: Cruzeiro 52% · hit
W
Gremio2–4Cruzeiro18 Oct · away
Pick: Gremio 38% · missed
L
RB Bragantino4–2Cruzeiro13 Oct · away
Pick: RB Bragantino 46% · hit
W
Cruzeiro2–0Sao Paulo8 Oct · home
Pick: Cruzeiro 51% · hit

Bahia

W
Bahia3–2Sao Paulo29 Oct · home
Pick: Bahia 54% · hit
D
Santos1–1Bahia25 Oct · away
Pick: Bahia 38% · missed
L
Bahia0–3Flamengo18 Oct · home
Pick: Flamengo 41% · hit
W
Bahia3–2Internacional30 Aug · home
Pick: Bahia 51% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Cruzeiro and Bahia meet in Serie A on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 00:30 UTC. The match is played at Estádio Mineirão, Belo Horizonte. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Cruzeiro win 34.8%, draw 27.6%, Bahia win 37.6%. The pick is Bahia win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.0%. Both teams to score: 53.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.