ScoreProb
Serie A Brazil Round 34 2026

Palmeiras vs Remo

Palmeiras Home · Elo 1,700
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Remo Away · Elo 1,543
Nubank Parque, Sao Paulo Referee: W. Sampaio Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Palmeiras win
Palmeiras winPick
65.3%
Draw
21.9%
Remo win
12.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.3%
No49.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.8%
Under 2.547.2%

How much we know

Palmeiras history95 matches
Remo history74 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 13 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 22:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (65.3%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Palmeiras are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Palmeiras are rated 157 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,700 against 1,543. On rating alone Palmeiras would be expected to take 71% of the points on offer.

  • Palmeiras score more

    1.82 goals a game over 95 matches for Palmeiras, against 1.34 over 74 for Remo.

  • Palmeiras concede fewer

    Palmeiras concede 0.80 a game, Remo 1.11.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of Palmeiras matches, against 41% for Remo. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Palmeiras
Remo
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1699.9
ELO
1542.7
95
ELO · Matches
74
1699.9
Current Team ELO
1542.7
1542.7
Current Opponent ELO
1699.9
157.2
Current ELO Difference
-157.2
0.71
Expected score
0.29
95
History Matches
74
0.11
Residual Mean
0.02
59.04
Overperformance
51.81
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.60
1.60
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
0.90
2.10
Goals for per game
0.90
1.10
Goals against per game
1.30
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.79
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
95
Matches
74
2.05
PPG
1.49
61.1%
Win rate
37.8%
22.1%
Draw rate
35.1%
16.8%
Loss rate
27.0%
68.4%
Over 1.5 rate
75.7%
48.4%
Over 2.5 rate
40.5%
31.6%
Over 3.5 rate
20.3%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
Venue performance10 signals
100
52
Matches
39
2.08
PPG
1.31
61.5%
Win rate
30.8%
23.1%
Draw rate
38.5%
15.4%
Loss rate
30.8%
63.5%
Over 1.5 rate
79.5%
42.3%
Over 2.5 rate
48.7%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
28.2%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.40
52
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.82
Goals for per game
1.34
80.0%
Scoring rate
77.0%
47.4%
BTTS rate
59.5%
1.79
Goals for per game
1.33
75.0%
Scoring rate
74.4%
40.4%
BTTS rate
64.1%
1.86
Goals for per game
1.25
90.5%
Scoring rate
70.0%
57.1%
BTTS rate
60.0%
95
History Matches
74
1.82
Goals Mean
1.34
1.42
Goals Std
1.09
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
77.0%
52.6%
Scored 2+ rate
35.1%
30.5%
Scored 3+ rate
17.6%
1.79
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.80
Goals against per game
1.11
57.9%
Conceding rate
75.7%
0.62
Goals against per game
1.33
51.9%
Conceding rate
79.5%
0.76
Goals against per game
1.65
57.1%
Conceding rate
90.0%
95
History Matches
74
0.80
Conceded Mean
1.11
0.84
Conceded Std
0.86
16.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.4%
5.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.4%
0.62
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
42.1%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.0%
48.1%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.6%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
9.5%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
42.1%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.0%
48.1%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.6%
42.1%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
95
History Matches
74
0.85
Result entropy
0.99
1.61
Goal Difference Std
1.34
14.90
Stability score
0.89
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
95
Eligible Matches
74
38
Lead Matches
21
94.7%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.78
12
Trailing Matches
18
58.3%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
95
Halftime Coverage Matches
74
0.86
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.37
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.96
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.15
Rest days
75.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
15
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.87
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
66
Normal Rest History Matches
40
2.06
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.40
13
Long Rest History Matches
26
2.15
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.69
Competition & season17 signals
170
21
Matches
20
2.14
PPG
1.00
61.9%
Win rate
25.0%
28.6%
Draw rate
25.0%
9.5%
Loss rate
50.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
85.0%
52.4%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
21
Current Competition Matches
20
2.14
Current Competition PPG
1.00
1.10
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.40
9
Competition Season Count
6
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.41
Portability PPG Std
0.33
1.47
Portability PPG Range
1.00
54.75
Portability Score
59.95
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
95
Clean History Matches
74
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO157.2
PPG0.57
GF0.48
GA-0.31
PPG1.14
PPG0.77
PPG1.00
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches21
Clean-sheet rate17.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate27.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches21
Goals Mean0.48
Goals Std0.33
Scored 1+ rate3.0%
Scored 2+ rate17.5%
Scored 3+ rate13.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.46
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.60
History Matches21
Conceded Mean-0.31
Conceded Std-0.02
Clean-sheet rate17.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean-0.72
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.13
History Matches21
Result entropy-0.14
Goal Difference Std0.27
Stability score14.01
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.51
Eligible Matches21
Lead Matches17
Lead Win Rate23.3%
Lead Points Retention0.19
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate8.3%
Trailing Win Rate8.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches21
First Half Goals For Mean0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG1.14
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.50
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.08
Portability PPG Range0.47
Portability Score-5.20
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches8
Short Rest Points Per Match0.87
Normal Rest History Matches26
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.66
Long Rest History Matches-13
Long Rest Points Per Match0.46
Current Team ELO157.2
Current Opponent ELO-157.2
Current ELO Difference314.4
Expected score0.42
History Matches21
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance7.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Palmeiras

W
Palmeiras1–0Vasco DA Gama1 Nov · home
Pick: Palmeiras 50% · hit
D
Santos0–0Palmeiras28 Oct · away
Pick: Palmeiras 47% · missed
W
Palmeiras2–0RB Bragantino24 Oct · home
Pick: Palmeiras 58% · hit
W
Atletico Paranaense0–2Palmeiras17 Oct · away
Pick: Palmeiras 39% · hit
W
Fluminense1–2Palmeiras15 Oct · away
Pick: Palmeiras 42% · hit

Remo

W
Remo2–1Botafogo29 Oct · home
Pick: Botafogo 36% · missed
L
Cruzeiro1–0Remo23 Oct · away
Pick: Cruzeiro 52% · hit
D
Remo1–1RB Bragantino18 Oct · home
Pick: RB Bragantino 39% · missed
D
Remo1–1Gremio7 Oct · home
Pick: Remo 37% · missed
L
Remo2–3Coritiba31 Aug · home
Pick: Remo 39% · missed

About this match

Palmeiras and Remo meet in Serie A on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 22:30 UTC. The match is played at Nubank Parque, Sao Paulo. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Palmeiras win 65.3%, draw 21.9%, Remo win 12.7%. The pick is Palmeiras win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.8%. Both teams to score: 50.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.