ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 Spain Group 8 - 10 2026

Cultural Leonesa II vs Cristo Atlético

Cultural Leonesa II Home · Elo 1,496
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cristo Atlético Away · Elo 1,582
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cristo Atlético win
Cultural Leonesa II win
29.6%
Draw
30.6%
Cristo Atlético winPick
39.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.8%
No49.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.4%
Under 2.550.6%

How much we know

Cultural Leonesa II history51 matches
Cristo Atlético history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Cristo Atlético are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Cristo Atlético are rated 86 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,582 against 1,496. On rating alone Cristo Atlético would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.31 goals a game over 51 matches for Cultural Leonesa II, against 1.38 over 53 for Cristo Atlético.

  • Cristo Atlético concede fewer

    Cultural Leonesa II concede 1.25 a game, Cristo Atlético 0.96.

  • Cultural Leonesa II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    57% of Cultural Leonesa II matches, against 40% for Cristo Atlético. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cultural Leonesa II
Cristo Atlético
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1496.0
ELO
1582.4
51
ELO · Matches
53
1496.0
Current Team ELO
1582.4
1582.4
Current Opponent ELO
1496.0
-86.41
Current ELO Difference
86.41
0.38
Expected score
0.62
51
History Matches
53
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.08
49.35
Overperformance
55.66
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.60
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
2.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.63
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.11
Overall performance9 signals
90
51
Matches
53
1.39
PPG
1.74
39.2%
Win rate
49.1%
21.6%
Draw rate
26.4%
39.2%
Loss rate
24.5%
72.5%
Over 1.5 rate
71.7%
56.9%
Over 2.5 rate
39.6%
25.5%
Over 3.5 rate
13.2%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.31
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
26
1.58
PPG
1.62
45.8%
Win rate
42.3%
20.8%
Draw rate
34.6%
33.3%
Loss rate
23.1%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
70.8%
Over 2.5 rate
38.5%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
11.5%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.29
24
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.31
Goals for per game
1.38
76.5%
Scoring rate
84.9%
51.0%
BTTS rate
56.6%
1.71
Goals for per game
1.27
91.7%
Scoring rate
84.6%
62.5%
BTTS rate
61.5%
51
History Matches
53
1.31
Goals Mean
1.38
1.00
Goals Std
0.98
76.5%
Scored 1+ rate
84.9%
39.2%
Scored 2+ rate
35.8%
15.7%
Scored 3+ rate
13.2%
1.71
Venue Goals Mean
1.27
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.25
Goals against per game
0.96
70.6%
Conceding rate
66.0%
1.29
Goals against per game
1.12
70.8%
Conceding rate
69.2%
51
History Matches
53
1.25
Conceded Mean
0.96
1.10
Conceded Std
0.95
37.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.6%
13.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.8%
1.29
Venue Conceded Mean
1.12
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
15.1%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
15.1%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
51
History Matches
53
0.97
Result entropy
0.95
1.65
Goal Difference Std
1.31
3.06
Stability score
4.81
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
53
15
Lead Matches
14
86.7%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.90
17
Trailing Matches
11
29.4%
Non-loss rate
45.5%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
27.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
85.23
Rest days
77.25
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
25
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.44
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.79
24
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.21
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.70
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.22
Portability PPG Std
0.28
0.43
Portability PPG Range
0.57
69.78
Portability Score
63.78
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
51
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-86.41
PPG-0.34
GF-0.06
GA0.29
PPG-0.03
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate8.4%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.06
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate3.4%
Scored 3+ rate2.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.44
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.05
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.29
Conceded Std0.15
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate14.6%
Conceded 3+ rate10.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.86
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.34
Stability score-1.76
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.42
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate1.0%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.16
Trailing Win Rate-0.21
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.07
Portability PPG Range-0.13
Portability Score5.99
Rest days7.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.35
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.49
Current Team ELO-86.41
Current Opponent ELO86.41
Current ELO Difference-172.8
Expected score-0.24
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-6.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Cultural Leonesa II

D
Turégano1–1Cultural Leonesa II1 Nov · away
Pick: Turégano 35% · missed
W
Cultural Leonesa II2–1Calasanz de Soria25 Oct · home
Pick: Cultural Leonesa II 71% · hit
W
Salamanca II0–2Cultural Leonesa II17 Oct · away
Pick: Salamanca II 35% · missed
L
UD Santa Marta2–0Cultural Leonesa II4 Oct · away
Pick: UD Santa Marta 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Cristo Atlético

W
Cristo Atlético1–0Palencia CF31 Oct · home
Pick: Cristo Atlético 41% · hit
W
Colegios Diocesanos0–2Cristo Atlético24 Oct · away
Pick: Cristo Atlético 52% · hit
W
Cristo Atlético2–0Villaralbo18 Oct · home
Pick: Cristo Atlético 53% · hit
W
Cristo Atlético3–0Unionistas II4 Oct · home
Pick: Cristo Atlético 56% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Cultural Leonesa II and Cristo Atlético meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Cultural Leonesa II win 29.6%, draw 30.6%, Cristo Atlético win 39.8%. The pick is Cristo Atlético win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.4%. Both teams to score: 50.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.