ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 Spain Group 8 - 10 2026

Villaralbo vs Guijuelo

Villaralbo Home · Elo 1,503
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Guijuelo Away · Elo 1,550
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Guijuelo win
Villaralbo win
32.2%
Draw
29.5%
Guijuelo winPick
38.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.4%
No52.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.540.6%
Under 2.559.4%

How much we know

Villaralbo history50 matches
Guijuelo history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Guijuelo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Guijuelo are rated 47 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,550 against 1,503. On rating alone Guijuelo would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Guijuelo score more

    0.92 goals a game over 50 matches for Villaralbo, against 1.28 over 58 for Guijuelo.

  • Villaralbo concede fewer

    Villaralbo concede 0.90 a game, Guijuelo 1.24.

  • Guijuelo games more often go over 2.5 goals

    28% of Villaralbo matches, against 50% for Guijuelo. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Villaralbo
Guijuelo
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1503.1
ELO
1549.7
50
ELO · Matches
58
1503.1
Current Team ELO
1549.7
1549.7
Current Opponent ELO
1503.1
-46.55
Current ELO Difference
46.55
0.43
Expected score
0.57
50
History Matches
58
0.00
Residual Mean
0.04
50.22
Overperformance
52.98
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.40
1.30
Goals for per game
1.50
1.30
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.92
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
58
1.36
PPG
1.52
34.0%
Win rate
43.1%
34.0%
Draw rate
22.4%
32.0%
Loss rate
34.5%
52.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.9%
28.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
14.0%
Over 3.5 rate
22.4%
1.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
30
1.64
PPG
1.27
40.0%
Win rate
33.3%
44.0%
Draw rate
26.7%
16.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
52.0%
Over 1.5 rate
76.7%
24.0%
Over 2.5 rate
53.3%
16.0%
Over 3.5 rate
23.3%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
25
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.92
Goals for per game
1.28
56.0%
Scoring rate
74.1%
34.0%
BTTS rate
53.4%
1.12
Goals for per game
1.07
60.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
32.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
50
History Matches
58
0.92
Goals Mean
1.28
1.02
Goals Std
1.08
56.0%
Scored 1+ rate
74.1%
26.0%
Scored 2+ rate
36.2%
8.0%
Scored 3+ rate
12.1%
1.12
Venue Goals Mean
1.07
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.90
Goals against per game
1.24
60.0%
Conceding rate
72.4%
0.60
Goals against per game
1.50
48.0%
Conceding rate
83.3%
50
History Matches
58
0.90
Conceded Mean
1.24
0.94
Conceded Std
1.18
22.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.3%
6.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.8%
0.60
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
44.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
52.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
44.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
52.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
58
1.00
Result entropy
0.97
1.35
Goal Difference Std
1.79
0.04
Stability score
3.05
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
57
16
Lead Matches
15
68.8%
Lead Win Rate
86.7%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.91
10
Trailing Matches
16
20.0%
Non-loss rate
18.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.45
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
182.2
Rest days
77.27
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
30
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.57
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.40
17
Long Rest History Matches
21
0.94
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.81
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.13
Portability PPG Std
0.72
0.26
Portability PPG Range
1.67
79.57
Portability Score
40.98
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-46.55
PPG-0.16
GF-0.36
GA-0.34
PPG0.37
PPG1.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate12.4%
Failed-to-score rate18.1%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate35.3%
Failed-to-score rate6.7%
History Matches-8
Goals Mean-0.36
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate-0.18
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.30
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean-0.34
Conceded Std-0.24
Clean-sheet rate12.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.01
History Matches-8
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.44
Stability score-3.02
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.92
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.18
Lead Points Retention-0.14
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate1.3%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.59
Portability PPG Range-1.41
Portability Score38.59
Rest days104.9
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.17
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.87
Current Team ELO-46.55
Current Opponent ELO46.55
Current ELO Difference-93.09
Expected score-0.13
History Matches-8
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Villaralbo

D
Atlético Mansillés1–1Villaralbo31 Oct · away
Pick: Atlético Mansillés 40% · missed
W
Villaralbo2–0Bembibre24 Oct · home
Pick: Villaralbo 45% · hit
L
Cristo Atlético2–0Villaralbo18 Oct · away
Pick: Cristo Atlético 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Guijuelo

D
Guijuelo2–2Arandina1 Nov · home
Pick: Guijuelo 58% · missed
L
Guijuelo1–3Sporting Gijon29 Oct · home
Pick: Sporting Gijon 43% · hit
W
Unionistas II0–1Guijuelo25 Oct · away
Pick: Guijuelo 48% · hit
W
Guijuelo5–1La Virgen del Camino18 Oct · home
Pick: Guijuelo 59% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Villaralbo and Guijuelo meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Villaralbo win 32.2%, draw 29.5%, Guijuelo win 38.3%. The pick is Guijuelo win. Over 2.5 goals: 40.6%. Both teams to score: 47.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.