Cultural Leonesa vs Ponferradina
Cultural Leonesa
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ponferradina
Match result probability Model pick: Ponferradina win
Cultural Leonesa win
33.8%
Draw
28.3%
Ponferradina winPick
37.9%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes47.9%
No52.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.549.2%
Under 2.550.8%
How much we know
Cultural Leonesa history75 matches
Ponferradina history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Ponferradina
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 16:15 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 17:15 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.9%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why Ponferradina are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Ponferradina are rated 112 Elo points higher
Elo 1,556 against 1,444. On rating alone Ponferradina would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.17 goals a game over 75 matches for Cultural Leonesa, against 1.19 over 72 for Ponferradina.
-
Ponferradina concede fewer
Cultural Leonesa concede 1.48 a game, Ponferradina 1.13.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
45% of Cultural Leonesa matches, against 39% for Ponferradina. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cultural Leonesa
Ponferradina
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1444.2
ELO
1556.0
75
ELO · Matches
72
1444.2
Current Team ELO
1556.0
1556.0
Current Opponent ELO
1444.2
-111.8
Current ELO Difference
111.8
0.34
Expected score
0.66
75
History Matches
72
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.04
46.69
Overperformance
53.00
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
0.80
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.60
1.30
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.10
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.42
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.89
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.58
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.92
Overall performance9 signals 90
75
Matches
72
1.12
PPG
1.54
28.0%
Win rate
43.1%
28.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
44.0%
Loss rate
31.9%
72.0%
Over 1.5 rate
61.1%
45.3%
Over 2.5 rate
38.9%
25.3%
Over 3.5 rate
26.4%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
Venue performance10 signals 100
35
Matches
36
1.40
PPG
1.33
37.1%
Win rate
36.1%
28.6%
Draw rate
25.0%
34.3%
Loss rate
38.9%
68.6%
Over 1.5 rate
58.3%
45.7%
Over 2.5 rate
38.9%
25.7%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.36
35
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.17
Goals for per game
1.19
66.7%
Scoring rate
69.4%
54.7%
BTTS rate
38.9%
1.29
Goals for per game
0.94
68.6%
Scoring rate
63.9%
51.4%
BTTS rate
33.3%
75
History Matches
72
1.17
Goals Mean
1.19
1.23
Goals Std
1.08
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
69.4%
28.0%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
13.3%
Scored 3+ rate
13.9%
1.29
Venue Goals Mean
0.94
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.48
Goals against per game
1.13
82.7%
Conceding rate
56.9%
1.34
Goals against per game
1.42
74.3%
Conceding rate
55.6%
75
History Matches
72
1.48
Conceded Mean
1.13
1.14
Conceded Std
1.58
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.0%
17.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.3%
1.34
Venue Conceded Mean
1.42
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
17.3%
Clean-sheet rate
43.1%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
44.4%
31.4%
Failed-to-score rate
36.1%
17.3%
Clean-sheet rate
43.1%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
44.4%
31.4%
Failed-to-score rate
36.1%
17.3%
Clean-sheet rate
43.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
75
History Matches
72
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
1.63
Goal Difference Std
2.03
2.23
Stability score
2.25
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
75
Eligible Matches
72
18
Lead Matches
26
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
84.6%
0.72
Lead Points Retention
0.90
26
Trailing Matches
11
19.2%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals 50
75
Halftime Coverage Matches
72
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.72
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
0.61
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
78.99
Rest days
80.97
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
44
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.11
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.81
26
Long Rest History Matches
32
0.96
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.16
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.56
Portability PPG Std
0.27
1.62
Portability PPG Range
0.78
47.28
Portability Score
64.59
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
75
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-111.8
PPG-0.42
GF-0.02
GA0.36
PPG0.07
PPG0.20
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.26
Failed-to-score rate2.8%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches3
Goals Mean-0.02
Goals Std0.15
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.34
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.52
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.36
Conceded Std-0.44
Clean-sheet rate-0.26
Conceded 2+ rate15.0%
Conceded 3+ rate2.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.83
History Matches3
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.40
Stability score-0.01
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.05
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.18
Lead Points Retention-0.18
Trailing Matches15
Non-loss rate1.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.28
Portability PPG Range0.84
Portability Score-17.31
Rest days-1.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.70
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.19
Current Team ELO-111.8
Current Opponent ELO111.8
Current ELO Difference-223.5
Expected score-0.31
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-6.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Cultural Leonesa
L
UD Ourense1–0Cultural Leonesa1 Nov · away
Pick: UD Ourense 39% · hit W
Gimnástica Segoviana0–1Cultural Leonesa27 Oct · away
Pick: Cultural Leonesa 43% · hit L
Cultural Leonesa1–2Pontevedra24 Oct · home
Pick: Cultural Leonesa 44% · missed D
UD Logroñés1–1Cultural Leonesa18 Oct · away
Pick: UD Logroñés 43% · missed W
Cultural Leonesa4–1Arenas Getxo12 Oct · home
Pick: Cultural Leonesa 50% · hit Ponferradina
D
Racing Ferrol0–0Ponferradina31 Oct · away
Pick: Ponferradina 46% · missed D
Ponferradina0–0Barakaldo24 Oct · home
Pick: Ponferradina 50% · missed D
Zamora1–1Ponferradina17 Oct · away
Pick: Ponferradina 42% · missed W
Ponferradina1–0Mirandes4 Oct · home
Pick: Ponferradina 39% · hit W
UD Ourense0–1Ponferradina29 Aug · away
Pick: Ponferradina 37% · hit About this match
Cultural Leonesa and Ponferradina meet in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:15 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Cultural Leonesa win 33.8%, draw 28.3%, Ponferradina win 37.9%. The pick is Ponferradina win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.2%. Both teams to score: 47.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.