ScoreProb
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Spain Group 1 - 11 2026

Mirandes vs CD Coria

Mirandes Home · Elo 1,488
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
CD Coria Away · Elo 1,589
Estadio Municipal de Anduva, Miranda de Ebro Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Mirandes win
Mirandes winPick
49.0%
Draw
24.9%
CD Coria win
26.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.4%
No43.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.2%
Under 2.544.8%

How much we know

Mirandes history75 matches
CD Coria history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 17:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Mirandes are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • CD Coria are rated 101 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,589 against 1,488. On rating alone CD Coria would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • CD Coria score more

    1.24 goals a game over 75 matches for Mirandes, against 1.45 over 58 for CD Coria.

  • CD Coria concede fewer

    Mirandes concede 1.47 a game, CD Coria 1.19.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    56% of Mirandes matches, against 50% for CD Coria. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mirandes
CD Coria
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1488.0
ELO
1588.8
75
ELO · Matches
58
1488.0
Current Team ELO
1588.8
1588.8
Current Opponent ELO
1488.0
-100.8
Current ELO Difference
100.8
0.36
Expected score
0.64
75
History Matches
58
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.07
48.60
Overperformance
55.19
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.00
0.80
Goals for per game
1.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
2.00
1.10
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.58
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.68
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.33
Overall performance9 signals
90
75
Matches
58
1.24
PPG
1.64
33.3%
Win rate
44.8%
24.0%
Draw rate
29.3%
42.7%
Loss rate
25.9%
72.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.6%
56.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
32.0%
Over 3.5 rate
29.3%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
31
1.58
PPG
1.39
45.5%
Win rate
38.7%
21.2%
Draw rate
22.6%
33.3%
Loss rate
38.7%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
77.4%
54.5%
Over 2.5 rate
45.2%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
25.8%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
33
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.24
Goals for per game
1.45
69.3%
Scoring rate
77.6%
58.7%
BTTS rate
48.3%
1.39
Goals for per game
1.13
72.7%
Scoring rate
71.0%
57.6%
BTTS rate
45.2%
75
History Matches
58
1.24
Goals Mean
1.45
1.08
Goals Std
1.18
69.3%
Scored 1+ rate
77.6%
40.0%
Scored 2+ rate
43.1%
10.7%
Scored 3+ rate
15.5%
1.39
Venue Goals Mean
1.13
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.47
Goals against per game
1.19
82.7%
Conceding rate
62.1%
1.24
Goals against per game
1.39
78.8%
Conceding rate
67.7%
75
History Matches
58
1.47
Conceded Mean
1.19
1.10
Conceded Std
1.21
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.2%
18.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.8%
1.24
Venue Conceded Mean
1.39
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
17.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.9%
30.7%
Failed-to-score rate
22.4%
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
17.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.9%
30.7%
Failed-to-score rate
22.4%
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
17.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
75
History Matches
58
0.98
Result entropy
0.97
1.52
Goal Difference Std
1.83
2.41
Stability score
2.68
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
75
Eligible Matches
58
17
Lead Matches
17
70.6%
Lead Win Rate
94.1%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.96
23
Trailing Matches
17
21.7%
Non-loss rate
29.4%
8.7%
Trailing Win Rate
11.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
75
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
79.01
Rest days
85.99
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
39
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.49
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.56
30
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.86
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.67
Portability PPG Std
0.44
1.67
Portability PPG Range
1.17
42.88
Portability Score
52.97
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
75
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-100.8
PPG-0.40
GF-0.21
GA0.28
PPG0.19
PPG0.00
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches17
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Failed-to-score rate8.3%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches17
Goals Mean-0.21
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.26
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.16
History Matches17
Conceded Mean0.28
Conceded Std-0.11
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Conceded 2+ rate3.8%
Conceded 3+ rate4.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.15
History Matches17
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.31
Stability score-0.27
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.66
Eligible Matches17
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.24
Lead Points Retention-0.20
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches17
First Half Goals For Mean-0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.22
Portability PPG Range0.50
Portability Score-10.09
Rest days-6.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.86
Current Team ELO-100.8
Current Opponent ELO100.8
Current ELO Difference-201.5
Expected score-0.28
History Matches17
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-6.58
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Mirandes

W
UD Logroñés0–1Mirandes31 Oct · away
Pick: UD Logroñés 41% · missed
W
Mirandes2–0Racing Ferrol24 Oct · home
Pick: Mirandes 47% · hit
L
Barakaldo2–0Mirandes17 Oct · away
Pick: Mirandes 41% · missed
L
Ponferradina1–0Mirandes4 Oct · away
Pick: Ponferradina 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

CD Coria

L
CD Coria0–1Arenas Getxo1 Nov · home
Pick: CD Coria 41% · missed
D
Mérida AD0–0CD Coria25 Oct · away
Pick: Mérida AD 46% · missed
W
CD Coria2–1Athletic Club II18 Oct · home
Pick: CD Coria 38% · hit
L
Zamora2–0CD Coria4 Oct · away
Pick: Zamora 47% · hit
L
Real Unión4–1CD Coria30 Aug · away
Pick: CD Coria 40% · missed

About this match

Mirandes and CD Coria meet in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:15 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Municipal de Anduva, Miranda de Ebro. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Mirandes win 49.0%, draw 24.9%, CD Coria win 26.0%. The pick is Mirandes win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.2%. Both teams to score: 56.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.