ScoreProb
III Liga - Group 4 Poland Group IV - 16 2026

Czarni Połaniec vs Sokół Kolb.

Czarni Połaniec Home · Elo 1,519
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sokół Kolb. Away · Elo 1,472
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Czarni Połaniec win
Czarni Połaniec winPick
52.8%
Draw
22.4%
Sokół Kolb. win
24.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.0%
No42.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.3%
Under 2.540.7%

How much we know

Czarni Połaniec history59 matches
Sokół Kolb. history44 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Czarni Połaniec are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Czarni Połaniec are rated 47 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,519 against 1,472. On rating alone Czarni Połaniec would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Czarni Połaniec score more

    1.59 goals a game over 59 matches for Czarni Połaniec, against 1.07 over 44 for Sokół Kolb..

  • Defences are close

    Czarni Połaniec concede 1.58 a game, Sokół Kolb. 1.68.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    58% of Czarni Połaniec matches, against 55% for Sokół Kolb.. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Czarni Połaniec
Sokół Kolb.
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1519.4
ELO
1472.3
59
ELO · Matches
44
1519.4
Current Team ELO
1472.3
1472.3
Current Opponent ELO
1519.4
47.09
Current ELO Difference
-47.09
0.57
Expected score
0.43
59
History Matches
44
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.03
51.17
Overperformance
47.99
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.00
1.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.80
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.66
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
44
1.46
PPG
1.05
44.1%
Win rate
29.5%
13.6%
Draw rate
15.9%
42.4%
Loss rate
54.5%
79.7%
Over 1.5 rate
84.1%
57.6%
Over 2.5 rate
54.5%
37.3%
Over 3.5 rate
22.7%
2.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
22
1.76
PPG
0.86
55.2%
Win rate
22.7%
10.3%
Draw rate
18.2%
34.5%
Loss rate
59.1%
82.8%
Over 1.5 rate
86.4%
58.6%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
37.9%
Over 3.5 rate
22.7%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
29
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.59
Goals for per game
1.07
76.3%
Scoring rate
68.2%
55.9%
BTTS rate
52.3%
1.66
Goals for per game
0.82
82.8%
Scoring rate
59.1%
55.2%
BTTS rate
45.5%
1.60
Goals for per game
1.20
60.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
59
History Matches
44
1.59
Goals Mean
1.07
1.32
Goals Std
0.96
76.3%
Scored 1+ rate
68.2%
45.8%
Scored 2+ rate
29.5%
25.4%
Scored 3+ rate
6.8%
1.66
Venue Goals Mean
0.82
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.58
Goals against per game
1.68
76.3%
Conceding rate
81.8%
1.34
Goals against per game
1.82
69.0%
Conceding rate
86.4%
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
59
History Matches
44
1.58
Conceded Mean
1.68
1.49
Conceded Std
1.29
44.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.3%
20.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.2%
1.34
Venue Conceded Mean
1.82
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.7%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
23.7%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
40.9%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
23.7%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
23.7%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
40.9%
23.7%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
44
0.91
Result entropy
0.90
2.08
Goal Difference Std
1.85
9.35
Stability score
10.50
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
44
13
Lead Matches
13
92.3%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.95
Lead Points Retention
0.79
25
Trailing Matches
16
16.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
4.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
44
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.93
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
0.95
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.98
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.13
Rest days
75.85
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
30
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.13
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.09
25
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.60
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.95
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.33
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.80
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.20
5
Competition Season Count
3
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.29
Portability PPG Std
0.07
0.80
Portability PPG Range
0.17
63.02
Portability Score
87.34
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
44
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO47.09
PPG0.41
GF0.53
GA-0.11
PPG0.80
PPG0.89
PPG0.80
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate5.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate17.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches15
Goals Mean0.53
Goals Std0.35
Scored 1+ rate8.1%
Scored 2+ rate16.2%
Scored 3+ rate18.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.84
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.54
History Matches15
Conceded Mean-0.11
Conceded Std0.19
Clean-sheet rate5.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate2.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.47
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.32
History Matches15
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.23
Stability score-1.14
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.30
Eligible Matches14
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate15.4%
Lead Points Retention0.15
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate16.0%
Trailing Win Rate4.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches14
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.30
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.20
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.22
Portability PPG Range0.63
Portability Score-24.32
Rest days1.27
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match2.50
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.04
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.65
Current Team ELO47.09
Current Opponent ELO-47.09
Current ELO Difference94.18
Expected score0.13
History Matches15
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.34

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Czarni Połaniec

D
Jarosław2–2Czarni Połaniec31 Oct · away
Pick: Jarosław 47% · missed
W
Czarni Połaniec2–1Busko-Zdroj24 Oct · home
Pick: Czarni Połaniec 61% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sokół Kolb.

L
Sokół Kolb.0–2Hetman Zamosc31 Oct · home
Pick: Sokół Kolb. 42% · missed
L
KSZO 19292–1Sokół Kolb.24 Oct · away
Pick: KSZO 1929 66% · hit
W
Sokół Kolb.1–0Wisła Kraków II17 Oct · home
Pick: Wisła Kraków II 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Czarni Połaniec and Sokół Kolb. meet in III Liga - Group 4 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Czarni Połaniec win 52.8%, draw 22.4%, Sokół Kolb. win 24.8%. The pick is Czarni Połaniec win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.3%. Both teams to score: 58.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.