ScoreProb
III Liga - Group 4 Poland Group IV - 16 2026

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów vs Korona Kielce II

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów Home · Elo 1,468
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Korona Kielce II Away · Elo 1,507
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów win
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów winPick
43.8%
Draw
19.9%
Korona Kielce II win
36.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.7%
No37.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.8%
Under 2.530.2%

How much we know

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów history57 matches
Korona Kielce II history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Korona Kielce II are rated 38 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,507 against 1,468. On rating alone Korona Kielce II would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Korona Kielce II score more

    1.56 goals a game over 57 matches for Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów, against 2.00 over 57 for Korona Kielce II.

  • Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów concede fewer

    Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów concede 1.53 a game, Korona Kielce II 1.86.

  • Korona Kielce II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    65% of Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów matches, against 81% for Korona Kielce II. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów
Korona Kielce II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1468.2
ELO
1506.6
57
ELO · Matches
57
1468.2
Current Team ELO
1506.6
1506.6
Current Opponent ELO
1468.2
-38.37
Current ELO Difference
38.37
0.45
Expected score
0.55
57
History Matches
57
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.01
47.58
Overperformance
50.93
-0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
0.20
0.40
Goals for per game
2.40
1.40
Goals against per game
3.20
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
1.00
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
1.70
Goals against per game
2.80
10.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
0.89
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.26
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.80
0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.78
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.23
Overall performance9 signals
90
57
Matches
57
1.23
PPG
1.54
31.6%
Win rate
45.6%
28.1%
Draw rate
17.5%
40.4%
Loss rate
36.8%
78.9%
Over 1.5 rate
91.2%
64.9%
Over 2.5 rate
80.7%
43.9%
Over 3.5 rate
59.6%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.11
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
26
1.56
PPG
1.38
40.7%
Win rate
38.5%
33.3%
Draw rate
23.1%
25.9%
Loss rate
38.5%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
88.5%
63.0%
Over 2.5 rate
73.1%
48.1%
Over 3.5 rate
61.5%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.98
27
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.56
Goals for per game
2.00
77.2%
Scoring rate
86.0%
61.4%
BTTS rate
75.4%
1.70
Goals for per game
1.73
77.8%
Scoring rate
84.6%
55.6%
BTTS rate
76.9%
0.40
Goals for per game
2.40
40.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
57
History Matches
57
1.56
Goals Mean
2.00
1.26
Goals Std
1.39
77.2%
Scored 1+ rate
86.0%
45.6%
Scored 2+ rate
56.1%
24.6%
Scored 3+ rate
36.8%
1.70
Venue Goals Mean
1.73
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.53
Goals against per game
1.86
78.9%
Conceding rate
86.0%
1.37
Goals against per game
2.08
66.7%
Conceding rate
84.6%
1.40
Goals against per game
3.20
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
57
History Matches
57
1.53
Conceded Mean
1.86
1.19
Conceded Std
1.32
47.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
57.9%
21.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.8%
1.37
Venue Conceded Mean
2.08
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
14.0%
22.8%
Failed-to-score rate
14.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
60.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
14.0%
22.8%
Failed-to-score rate
14.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
14.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
57
History Matches
57
0.99
Result entropy
0.94
1.79
Goal Difference Std
2.11
1.07
Stability score
6.13
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
57
21
Lead Matches
23
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
78.3%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.84
13
Trailing Matches
20
7.7%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.80
First Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.98
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.09
0.93
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.83
Rest days
77.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
31
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.29
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.60
23
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.04
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.54
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
0.20
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
80.0%
Loss rate
80.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
20.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
80.0%
0.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.40
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.20
Current Competition PPG
0.20
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.80
4
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.48
Portability PPG Std
0.70
1.30
Portability PPG Range
1.87
50.97
Portability Score
41.61
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
57
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-38.37
PPG-0.32
GF-0.44
GA-0.33
PPG0.00
PPG0.17
PPG0.00
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate7.0%
Failed-to-score rate8.8%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate17.9%
Failed-to-score rate6.8%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.44
Goals Std-0.13
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Goals Mean-0.03
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.37
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.33
Conceded Std-0.13
Clean-sheet rate7.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.71
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.00
History Matches0
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.33
Stability score-5.06
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.04
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate-0.20
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.42
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.20
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.22
Portability PPG Range-0.57
Portability Score9.36
Rest days-1.29
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.31
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Current Team ELO-38.37
Current Opponent ELO38.37
Current ELO Difference-76.73
Expected score-0.11
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.35
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów

L
Star Starachowice4–3Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów30 Oct · away
Pick: Star Starachowice 51% · hit
W
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów2–0Podlasie Biała Podlaska25 Oct · home
Pick: Podlasie Biała Podlaska 44% · missed
L
Siarka Tarnobrzeg4–0Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów17 Oct · away
Pick: Siarka Tarnobrzeg 52% · hit
W
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów4–2Hetman Zamosc29 Aug · home
Pick: Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Korona Kielce II

L
Korona Kielce II1–2Wiślanie Jaśkowice29 Oct · home
Pick: Wiślanie Jaśkowice 47% · hit
L
Chełmianka Chełm2–0Korona Kielce II24 Oct · away
Pick: Chełmianka Chełm 66% · hit
L
Star Starachowice4–1Korona Kielce II17 Oct · away
Pick: Star Starachowice 52% · hit
L
Korona Kielce II0–1Radomiak Radom1 Sep · home
Pick: Radomiak Radom 41% · hit
W
Korona Kielce II4–1Busko-Zdroj29 Aug · home
Pick: Korona Kielce II 55% · hit

About this match

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów and Korona Kielce II meet in III Liga - Group 4 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów win 43.8%, draw 19.9%, Korona Kielce II win 36.3%. The pick is Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.8%. Both teams to score: 62.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.