ScoreProb
III Liga - Group 4 Poland Group IV - 16 2026

Naprzód vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska

Naprzód Home · Elo 1,464
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Podlasie Biała Podlaska Away · Elo 1,547
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Podlasie Biała Podlaska win
Naprzód win
30.0%
Draw
21.0%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska winPick
49.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.0%
No43.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.4%
Under 2.540.6%

How much we know

Naprzód history45 matches
Podlasie Biała Podlaska history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Podlasie Biała Podlaska are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Podlasie Biała Podlaska are rated 83 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,547 against 1,464. On rating alone Podlasie Biała Podlaska would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Podlasie Biała Podlaska score more

    1.47 goals a game over 45 matches for Naprzód, against 1.95 over 57 for Podlasie Biała Podlaska.

  • Podlasie Biała Podlaska concede fewer

    Naprzód concede 1.71 a game, Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1.35.

  • Podlasie Biała Podlaska games more often go over 2.5 goals

    51% of Naprzód matches, against 67% for Podlasie Biała Podlaska. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Naprzód
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1464.1
ELO
1547.4
45
ELO · Matches
57
1464.1
Current Team ELO
1547.4
1547.4
Current Opponent ELO
1464.1
-83.31
Current ELO Difference
83.31
0.38
Expected score
0.62
45
History Matches
57
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.04
46.58
Overperformance
53.32
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
2.60
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.40
1.50
Goals for per game
1.90
2.40
Goals against per game
1.50
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.57
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.45
2.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.12
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.74
Overall performance9 signals
90
45
Matches
57
1.20
PPG
1.65
35.6%
Win rate
45.6%
13.3%
Draw rate
28.1%
51.1%
Loss rate
26.3%
75.6%
Over 1.5 rate
91.2%
51.1%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
35.6%
Over 3.5 rate
35.1%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
27
1.40
PPG
1.67
40.0%
Win rate
48.1%
20.0%
Draw rate
22.2%
40.0%
Loss rate
29.6%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.5%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
63.0%
35.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
20
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.47
Goals for per game
1.95
68.9%
Scoring rate
86.0%
48.9%
BTTS rate
70.2%
1.80
Goals for per game
1.85
60.0%
Scoring rate
77.8%
45.0%
BTTS rate
59.3%
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
60.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
45
History Matches
57
1.47
Goals Mean
1.95
1.51
Goals Std
1.42
68.9%
Scored 1+ rate
86.0%
40.0%
Scored 2+ rate
61.4%
20.0%
Scored 3+ rate
26.3%
1.80
Venue Goals Mean
1.85
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.71
Goals against per game
1.35
77.8%
Conceding rate
82.5%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.26
80.0%
Conceding rate
77.8%
2.60
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
45
History Matches
57
1.71
Conceded Mean
1.35
1.39
Conceded Std
1.00
48.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.1%
26.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.0%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.26
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
17.5%
31.1%
Failed-to-score rate
14.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
17.5%
31.1%
Failed-to-score rate
14.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
17.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
45
History Matches
57
0.89
Result entropy
0.97
1.97
Goal Difference Std
1.78
10.85
Stability score
2.97
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
57
10
Lead Matches
26
70.0%
Lead Win Rate
57.7%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.67
19
Trailing Matches
11
26.3%
Non-loss rate
45.5%
15.8%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.66
First Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.82
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.07
0.91
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.88
Rest days
76.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
26
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.31
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.74
14
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.07
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.65
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
20.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.20
Current Competition PPG
1.40
-0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
3
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.12
Portability PPG Std
0.24
0.28
Portability PPG Range
0.60
80.54
Portability Score
67.18
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
45
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-83.31
PPG-0.45
GF-0.48
GA0.36
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.27
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate4.7%
Failed-to-score rate17.1%
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate17.8%
History Matches-12
Goals Mean-0.48
Goals Std0.09
Scored 1+ rate-0.17
Scored 2+ rate-0.21
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean-0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.12
History Matches-12
Conceded Mean0.36
Conceded Std0.39
Clean-sheet rate4.7%
Conceded 2+ rate13.8%
Conceded 3+ rate12.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.38
History Matches-12
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std0.19
Stability score7.88
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.18
Eligible Matches-13
Lead Matches-16
Lead Win Rate12.3%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.19
Trailing Win Rate6.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-13
First Half Goals For Mean-0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.80
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.12
Portability PPG Range-0.32
Portability Score13.36
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.75
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.43
Long Rest History Matches-9
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.58
Current Team ELO-83.31
Current Opponent ELO83.31
Current ELO Difference-166.6
Expected score-0.24
History Matches-12
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-6.75
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Naprzód

D
Siarka Tarnobrzeg1–1Naprzód31 Oct · away
Pick: Siarka Tarnobrzeg 57% · missed
D
Naprzód2–2KS Wieczysta Krakow II24 Oct · home
Pick: Naprzód 45% · missed
L
Wisłoka Dębica4–0Naprzód17 Oct · away
Pick: Wisłoka Dębica 51% · hit
D
Naprzód0–0Wisła Kraków II30 Aug · home
Pick: Wisła Kraków II 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Podlasie Biała Podlaska

L
Podlasie Biała Podlaska0–4Moravia Morawica30 Oct · home
Pick: Podlasie Biała Podlaska 75% · missed
L
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów2–0Podlasie Biała Podlaska25 Oct · away
Pick: Podlasie Biała Podlaska 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Naprzód and Podlasie Biała Podlaska meet in III Liga - Group 4 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Naprzód win 30.0%, draw 21.0%, Podlasie Biała Podlaska win 49.0%. The pick is Podlasie Biała Podlaska win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.4%. Both teams to score: 57.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.