ScoreProb
Ekstraliga Women Poland Round 10 2026

Czarni Sosnowiec W vs Rekord Bielsko-Biala W

Czarni Sosnowiec W Home · Elo 1,677
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W Away · Elo 1,446
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Czarni Sosnowiec W win
Czarni Sosnowiec W winPick
79.3%
Draw
13.7%
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W win
7.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.6%
No48.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.575.2%
Under 2.524.8%

How much we know

Czarni Sosnowiec W history39 matches
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W history35 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (79.3%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Czarni Sosnowiec W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Czarni Sosnowiec W are rated 231 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,677 against 1,446. On rating alone Czarni Sosnowiec W would be expected to take 79% of the points on offer.

  • Czarni Sosnowiec W score far more

    3.23 goals a game over 39 matches for Czarni Sosnowiec W, against 1.14 over 35 for Rekord Bielsko-Biala W.

  • Czarni Sosnowiec W concede fewer

    Czarni Sosnowiec W concede 1.05 a game, Rekord Bielsko-Biala W 1.77.

  • Czarni Sosnowiec W games more often go over 2.5 goals

    77% of Czarni Sosnowiec W matches, against 51% for Rekord Bielsko-Biala W. The model puts this match at 75% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Czarni Sosnowiec W
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1677.3
ELO
1446.2
39
ELO · Matches
35
1677.3
Current Team ELO
1446.2
1446.2
Current Opponent ELO
1677.3
231.0
Current ELO Difference
-231.0
0.79
Expected score
0.21
39
History Matches
35
0.22
Residual Mean
-0.07
64.33
Overperformance
45.44
0.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.20
3.60
Goals for per game
1.00
1.60
Goals against per game
3.00
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.60
PPG
1.00
3.70
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
2.00
80.0%
Win rate
30.0%
3.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.35
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.48
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.29
Overall performance9 signals
90
39
Matches
35
2.44
PPG
1.09
76.9%
Win rate
31.4%
12.8%
Draw rate
14.3%
10.3%
Loss rate
54.3%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
76.9%
Over 2.5 rate
51.4%
56.4%
Over 3.5 rate
37.1%
2.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
17
2.50
PPG
1.35
83.3%
Win rate
41.2%
0.0%
Draw rate
11.8%
16.7%
Loss rate
47.1%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
64.7%
72.2%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
55.6%
Over 3.5 rate
41.2%
2.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
18
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
3.23
Goals for per game
1.14
87.2%
Scoring rate
62.9%
48.7%
BTTS rate
45.7%
3.33
Goals for per game
1.41
88.9%
Scoring rate
70.6%
44.4%
BTTS rate
41.2%
3.67
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
100.0%
39
History Matches
35
3.23
Goals Mean
1.14
2.22
Goals Std
1.29
87.2%
Scored 1+ rate
62.9%
76.9%
Scored 2+ rate
25.7%
59.0%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
3.33
Venue Goals Mean
1.41
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.05
Goals against per game
1.77
56.4%
Conceding rate
77.1%
1.17
Goals against per game
1.53
55.6%
Conceding rate
64.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
3.25
33.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
39
History Matches
35
1.05
Conceded Mean
1.77
1.20
Conceded Std
1.46
30.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.6%
12.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
31.4%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
1.53
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
43.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
12.8%
Failed-to-score rate
37.1%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
43.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
12.8%
Failed-to-score rate
37.1%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
43.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
39
History Matches
35
0.64
Result entropy
0.89
2.60
Goal Difference Std
2.00
36.40
Stability score
11.40
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
39
Eligible Matches
35
25
Lead Matches
6
96.0%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.97
Lead Points Retention
0.83
5
Trailing Matches
14
60.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
40.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
39
Halftime Coverage Matches
35
1.38
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
1.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
76.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
19
Normal Rest History Matches
13
2.37
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.62
16
Long Rest History Matches
20
2.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.35
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
4
2.33
PPG
0.25
66.7%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
25.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
3
Current Competition Matches
4
2.33
Current Competition PPG
0.25
2.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.25
4
Competition Season Count
3
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.14
Portability PPG Std
0.43
0.35
Portability PPG Range
1.02
78.45
Portability Score
53.62
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
39
Clean History Matches
35
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO231.0
PPG1.35
GF2.09
GA-0.72
PPG2.08
PPG1.15
PPG2.00
PPG1.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate20.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate9.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches4
Goals Mean2.09
Goals Std0.93
Scored 1+ rate24.3%
Scored 2+ rate51.2%
Scored 3+ rate44.7%
Venue Goals Mean1.92
Recent 10 Goals Mean2.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.08
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.72
Conceded Std-0.26
Clean-sheet rate20.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.18
Conceded 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Conceded Mean-0.36
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.46
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.25
Goal Difference Std0.60
Stability score25.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.39
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches19
Lead Win Rate12.7%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate60.0%
Trailing Win Rate40.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.84
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.37
Second Half Goals For Mean1.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.35
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG2.08
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean4.92
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.30
Portability PPG Range-0.68
Portability Score24.82
Rest days0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.75
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match1.03
Current Team ELO231.0
Current Opponent ELO-231.0
Current ELO Difference462.1
Expected score0.58
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.29
Overperformance18.89
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.37

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Czarni Sosnowiec W

L
Czarni Sosnowiec W0–3Pogon Szczecin W31 Oct · home
Pick: Czarni Sosnowiec W 62% · missed
L
Brann W3–0Czarni Sosnowiec W28 Oct · away
Pick: Brann W 65% · hit
L
Sleza Wroclaw W4–2Czarni Sosnowiec W21 Oct · away
Pick: Czarni Sosnowiec W 74% · missed
D
Czarni Sosnowiec W1–1Akademia Piłkarska LG W17 Oct · home
Pick: Czarni Sosnowiec W 81% · missed
W
Slask Wroclaw W0–2Czarni Sosnowiec W4 Oct · away
Pick: Czarni Sosnowiec W 77% · hit

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W

D
UKS Łódź W1–1Rekord Bielsko-Biala W17 Oct · away
Pick: UKS Łódź W 51% · missed
W
Pogon Szczecin W1–2Rekord Bielsko-Biala W4 Oct · away
Pick: Pogon Szczecin W 77% · missed
D
Slask Wroclaw W1–1Rekord Bielsko-Biala W30 Aug · away
Pick: Slask Wroclaw W 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Czarni Sosnowiec W and Rekord Bielsko-Biala W meet in Ekstraliga Women on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Czarni Sosnowiec W win 79.3%, draw 13.7%, Rekord Bielsko-Biala W win 7.1%. The pick is Czarni Sosnowiec W win. Over 2.5 goals: 75.2%. Both teams to score: 51.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.