ScoreProb
Ekstraliga Women Poland Round 10 2026

Sleza Wroclaw W vs Pogon Szczecin W

Sleza Wroclaw W Home · Elo 1,485
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Pogon Szczecin W Away · Elo 1,625
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Pogon Szczecin W win
Sleza Wroclaw W win
14.5%
Draw
15.8%
Pogon Szczecin W winPick
69.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.9%
No55.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.9%
Under 2.539.1%

How much we know

Sleza Wroclaw W history3 matches
Pogon Szczecin W history34 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (69.7%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Pogon Szczecin W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Pogon Szczecin W are rated 141 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,625 against 1,485. On rating alone Pogon Szczecin W would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Pogon Szczecin W score far more

    0.67 goals a game over 3 matches for Sleza Wroclaw W, against 2.65 over 34 for Pogon Szczecin W.

  • Pogon Szczecin W concede fewer

    Sleza Wroclaw W concede 1.33 a game, Pogon Szczecin W 0.88.

  • Pogon Szczecin W games more often go over 2.5 goals

    67% of Sleza Wroclaw W matches, against 76% for Pogon Szczecin W. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sleza Wroclaw W
Pogon Szczecin W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1484.8
ELO
1625.4
3
ELO · Matches
34
1484.8
Current Team ELO
1625.4
1625.4
Current Opponent ELO
1484.8
-140.6
Current ELO Difference
140.6
0.31
Expected score
0.69
3
History Matches
34
-0.28
Residual Mean
0.18
46.36
Overperformance
61.12
-0.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
3
Matches
5
0.33
PPG
2.40
0.67
Goals for per game
2.60
1.33
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
80.0%
3
Matches
10
0.33
PPG
2.20
0.67
Goals for per game
2.60
1.33
Goals against per game
1.10
0.0%
Win rate
70.0%
0.67
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.60
0.47
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.37
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
0.47
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
3
Matches
34
0.33
PPG
2.21
0.0%
Win rate
70.6%
33.3%
Draw rate
8.8%
66.7%
Loss rate
20.6%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
79.4%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
76.5%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
44.1%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.36
Venue performance10 signals
100
1
Matches
18
0.00
PPG
2.22
0.0%
Win rate
72.2%
0.0%
Draw rate
5.6%
100.0%
Loss rate
22.2%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
77.8%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
38.9%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.13
1
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.67
Goals for per game
2.65
66.7%
Scoring rate
88.2%
66.7%
BTTS rate
44.1%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.44
100.0%
Scoring rate
88.9%
100.0%
BTTS rate
44.4%
0.67
Goals for per game
3.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
75.0%
3
History Matches
34
0.67
Goals Mean
2.65
0.47
Goals Std
1.97
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
88.2%
0.0%
Scored 2+ rate
64.7%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
52.9%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
2.44
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.33
Goals against per game
0.88
66.7%
Conceding rate
50.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.78
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.25
66.7%
Conceding rate
75.0%
3
History Matches
34
1.33
Conceded Mean
0.88
0.94
Conceded Std
1.05
66.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.4%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.9%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
0.78
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
11.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
11.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
3
History Matches
34
0.58
Result entropy
0.71
0.47
Goal Difference Std
2.36
42.06
Stability score
28.50
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
3
Eligible Matches
34
0
Lead Matches
20
—
Lead Win Rate
90.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.90
0
Trailing Matches
5
—
Non-loss rate
60.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
40.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
3
Halftime Coverage Matches
34
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
1.12
0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.29
0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.53
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.19
Rest days
77.31
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
0
Normal Rest History Matches
12
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.25
2
Long Rest History Matches
20
0.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
4
0.33
PPG
2.25
0.0%
Win rate
75.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
25.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.59
3
Current Competition Matches
4
0.33
Current Competition PPG
2.25
-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.75
1
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.19
—
Portability PPG Range
0.44
—
Portability Score
71.96
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
3
Clean History Matches
34
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO-140.6
PPG-1.87
GF-1.98
GA0.45
PPG-1.92
PPG-2.22
PPG-2.07
PPG-1.87
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-31
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate21.6%
History Matches-17
Clean-sheet rate-0.50
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-31
Goals Mean-1.98
Goals Std-1.50
Scored 1+ rate-0.22
Scored 2+ rate-0.65
Scored 3+ rate-0.53
Venue Goals Mean-1.44
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.93
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.73
History Matches-31
Conceded Mean0.45
Conceded Std-0.11
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate37.3%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.23
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.43
History Matches-31
Result entropy-0.14
Goal Difference Std-1.89
Stability score13.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.15
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.73
Eligible Matches-31
Lead Matches-20
Trailing Matches-5
Halftime Coverage Matches-31
First Half Goals For Mean-0.78
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-1.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.41
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-1.92
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.42
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days-0.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-12
Long Rest History Matches-18
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.75
Current Team ELO-140.6
Current Opponent ELO140.6
Current ELO Difference-281.2
Expected score-0.38
History Matches-31
Residual Mean-0.46
Overperformance-14.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.41

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sleza Wroclaw W

D
Akademia Piłkarska LG W2–2Sleza Wroclaw W31 Oct · away
Pick: Akademia Piłkarska LG W 54% · missed
W
Sleza Wroclaw W4–2Czarni Sosnowiec W21 Oct · home
Pick: Czarni Sosnowiec W 74% · missed
W
Sleza Wroclaw W3–2Slask Wroclaw W17 Oct · home
Pick: Sleza Wroclaw W 52% · hit
L
UJ Krakow W4–1Sleza Wroclaw W4 Oct · away
Pick: UJ Krakow W 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Pogon Szczecin W

W
Czarni Sosnowiec W0–3Pogon Szczecin W31 Oct · away
Pick: Czarni Sosnowiec W 62% · missed
W
Lech Poznan W1–3Pogon Szczecin W17 Oct · away
Pick: Pogon Szczecin W 80% · hit
L
Pogon Szczecin W1–2Rekord Bielsko-Biala W4 Oct · home
Pick: Pogon Szczecin W 77% · missed
L
Akademia Piłkarska LG W2–1Pogon Szczecin W29 Aug · away
Pick: Pogon Szczecin W 65% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sleza Wroclaw W and Pogon Szczecin W meet in Ekstraliga Women on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Sleza Wroclaw W win 14.5%, draw 15.8%, Pogon Szczecin W win 69.7%. The pick is Pogon Szczecin W win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.9%. Both teams to score: 44.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.