ScoreProb
Primera División Chile Round 27 2026

D. La Serena vs Palestino

D. La Serena Home · Elo 1,448
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Palestino Away · Elo 1,529
Estadio La Portada, La Serena Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: D. La Serena win
D. La Serena winPick
39.5%
Draw
25.5%
Palestino win
35.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.6%
No41.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.1%
Under 2.543.9%

How much we know

D. La Serena history67 matches
Palestino history71 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why D. La Serena are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Palestino are rated 82 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,529 against 1,448. On rating alone Palestino would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.36 goals a game over 67 matches for D. La Serena, against 1.38 over 71 for Palestino.

  • Palestino concede fewer

    D. La Serena concede 1.76 a game, Palestino 1.30.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    57% of D. La Serena matches, against 56% for Palestino. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
D. La Serena
Palestino
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1447.6
ELO
1529.3
67
ELO · Matches
71
1447.6
Current Team ELO
1529.3
1529.3
Current Opponent ELO
1447.6
-81.66
Current ELO Difference
81.66
0.38
Expected score
0.62
67
History Matches
71
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.02
47.87
Overperformance
51.49
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.80
2.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.80
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.60
1.50
Goals for per game
1.70
1.50
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.42
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
71
1.12
PPG
1.45
28.4%
Win rate
40.8%
26.9%
Draw rate
22.5%
44.8%
Loss rate
36.6%
80.6%
Over 1.5 rate
76.1%
56.7%
Over 2.5 rate
56.3%
34.3%
Over 3.5 rate
21.1%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
36
1.24
PPG
1.17
32.4%
Win rate
30.6%
27.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
40.5%
Loss rate
44.4%
81.1%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
56.8%
Over 2.5 rate
61.1%
35.1%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
37
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.36
Goals for per game
1.38
77.6%
Scoring rate
73.2%
65.7%
BTTS rate
59.2%
1.41
Goals for per game
1.22
75.7%
Scoring rate
75.0%
62.2%
BTTS rate
63.9%
1.53
Goals for per game
1.38
78.9%
Scoring rate
68.8%
57.9%
BTTS rate
56.3%
67
History Matches
71
1.36
Goals Mean
1.38
1.10
Goals Std
1.19
77.6%
Scored 1+ rate
73.2%
38.8%
Scored 2+ rate
43.7%
13.4%
Scored 3+ rate
12.7%
1.41
Venue Goals Mean
1.22
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.76
Goals against per game
1.30
85.1%
Conceding rate
76.1%
1.78
Goals against per game
1.42
81.1%
Conceding rate
80.6%
1.68
Goals against per game
1.38
73.7%
Conceding rate
75.0%
67
History Matches
71
1.76
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.39
Conceded Std
1.09
44.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.0%
26.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.9%
1.78
Venue Conceded Mean
1.42
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.9%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.8%
18.9%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
14.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.9%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.8%
18.9%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
14.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
71
0.97
Result entropy
0.97
1.76
Goal Difference Std
1.56
2.58
Stability score
2.66
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
71
20
Lead Matches
21
65.0%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.75
16
Trailing Matches
20
31.3%
Non-loss rate
15.0%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
5.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
71
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.82
1.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.21
Rest days
76.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
6
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
34
Normal Rest History Matches
41
1.26
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.51
32
Long Rest History Matches
23
0.91
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.39
Competition & season17 signals
170
19
Matches
16
1.21
PPG
1.44
26.3%
Win rate
43.8%
42.1%
Draw rate
12.5%
31.6%
Loss rate
43.8%
73.7%
Over 1.5 rate
62.5%
52.6%
Over 2.5 rate
56.3%
42.1%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.15
19
Current Competition Matches
16
1.21
Current Competition PPG
1.44
-0.16
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
6
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.61
Portability PPG Std
0.29
1.93
Portability PPG Range
0.84
44.85
Portability Score
62.98
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
71
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-81.66
PPG-0.33
GF-0.02
GA0.47
PPG-0.23
PPG0.08
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-0.02
Goals Std-0.09
Scored 1+ rate4.4%
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate0.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.39
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean0.47
Conceded Std0.30
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate6.7%
Conceded 3+ rate17.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.37
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.44
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.20
Stability score-0.08
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.52
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate16.3%
Trailing Win Rate1.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.45
Current Competition Matches3
Current Competition PPG-0.23
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.16
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.32
Portability PPG Range1.09
Portability Score-18.13
Rest days0.29
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Long Rest History Matches9
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.49
Current Team ELO-81.66
Current Opponent ELO81.66
Current ELO Difference-163.3
Expected score-0.23
History Matches-4
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.61
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

D. La Serena

D
Huachipato0–0D. La Serena1 Nov · away
Pick: Huachipato 40% · missed
W
D. La Serena3–1Concepción24 Oct · home
Pick: D. La Serena 40% · hit
W
Union La Calera0–1D. La Serena31 Aug · away
Pick: D. La Serena 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Palestino

L
Concepción1–0Palestino2 Nov · away
Pick: Concepción 46% · hit
D
Palestino1–1Colo Colo25 Oct · home
Pick: Colo Colo 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

D. La Serena and Palestino meet in Primera División on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio La Portada, La Serena. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: D. La Serena win 39.5%, draw 25.5%, Palestino win 35.0%. The pick is D. La Serena win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.1%. Both teams to score: 58.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.