ScoreProb
Primera División Chile Round 27 2026

U. Catolica vs Deportes Limache

U. Catolica Home · Elo 1,597
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Deportes Limache Away · Elo 1,499
Claro Arena, Santiago de Chile Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: U. Catolica win
U. Catolica winPick
60.4%
Draw
20.0%
Deportes Limache win
19.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.8%
No39.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.3%
Under 2.535.7%

How much we know

U. Catolica history69 matches
Deportes Limache history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.4%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why U. Catolica are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • U. Catolica are rated 98 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,597 against 1,499. On rating alone U. Catolica would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.74 goals a game over 69 matches for U. Catolica, against 1.77 over 57 for Deportes Limache.

  • U. Catolica concede fewer

    U. Catolica concede 1.16 a game, Deportes Limache 1.60.

  • Deportes Limache games more often go over 2.5 goals

    57% of U. Catolica matches, against 70% for Deportes Limache. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
U. Catolica
Deportes Limache
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1597.4
ELO
1498.9
69
ELO · Matches
57
1597.4
Current Team ELO
1498.9
1498.9
Current Opponent ELO
1597.4
98.48
Current ELO Difference
-98.48
0.64
Expected score
0.36
69
History Matches
57
0.07
Residual Mean
-0.01
55.57
Overperformance
49.11
-0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.20
0.80
Goals for per game
1.80
1.80
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.50
Goals for per game
1.90
2.00
Goals against per game
1.90
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.06
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.05
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
57
1.78
PPG
1.35
52.2%
Win rate
38.6%
21.7%
Draw rate
19.3%
26.1%
Loss rate
42.1%
81.2%
Over 1.5 rate
86.0%
56.5%
Over 2.5 rate
70.2%
27.5%
Over 3.5 rate
50.9%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
32
1.97
PPG
1.06
61.1%
Win rate
28.1%
13.9%
Draw rate
21.9%
25.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
90.6%
61.1%
Over 2.5 rate
81.3%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
65.6%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
36
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.74
Goals for per game
1.77
79.7%
Scoring rate
87.7%
56.5%
BTTS rate
71.9%
1.94
Goals for per game
1.78
86.1%
Scoring rate
90.6%
58.3%
BTTS rate
87.5%
2.33
Goals for per game
2.00
86.7%
Scoring rate
84.2%
60.0%
BTTS rate
68.4%
69
History Matches
57
1.74
Goals Mean
1.77
1.45
Goals Std
1.28
79.7%
Scored 1+ rate
87.7%
50.7%
Scored 2+ rate
49.1%
23.2%
Scored 3+ rate
26.3%
1.94
Venue Goals Mean
1.78
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.16
Goals against per game
1.60
72.5%
Conceding rate
84.2%
1.11
Goals against per game
2.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
96.9%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.63
73.3%
Conceding rate
84.2%
69
History Matches
57
1.16
Conceded Mean
1.60
0.99
Conceded Std
1.14
30.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.6%
11.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.8%
1.11
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.5%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
20.3%
Failed-to-score rate
12.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
3.1%
13.9%
Failed-to-score rate
9.4%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
27.5%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
20.3%
Failed-to-score rate
12.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
3.1%
13.9%
Failed-to-score rate
9.4%
27.5%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
57
0.93
Result entropy
0.95
1.86
Goal Difference Std
1.89
7.00
Stability score
4.50
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
69
Eligible Matches
57
24
Lead Matches
27
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
55.6%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.63
22
Trailing Matches
10
40.9%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
22.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
69
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.77
First Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.97
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.54
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.12
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.88
Rest days
77.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.80
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
37
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.76
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
26
Long Rest History Matches
31
1.88
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.23
Competition & season17 signals
170
15
Matches
19
1.73
PPG
1.42
53.3%
Win rate
42.1%
13.3%
Draw rate
15.8%
33.3%
Loss rate
42.1%
93.3%
Over 1.5 rate
89.5%
73.3%
Over 2.5 rate
78.9%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
63.2%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
15
Current Competition Matches
19
1.73
Current Competition PPG
1.42
0.93
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.37
9
Competition Season Count
5
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.43
Portability PPG Std
0.71
1.50
Portability PPG Range
2.13
53.50
Portability Score
41.36
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO98.48
PPG0.43
GF-0.03
GA-0.44
PPG0.31
PPG0.91
PPG-0.40
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate11.7%
Failed-to-score rate8.0%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate30.2%
Failed-to-score rate4.5%
History Matches12
Goals Mean-0.03
Goals Std0.17
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate1.6%
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.16
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.15
History Matches12
Conceded Mean-0.44
Conceded Std-0.15
Clean-sheet rate11.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.05
History Matches12
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.03
Stability score2.49
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.01
Eligible Matches12
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate19.4%
Lead Points Retention0.19
Trailing Matches12
Non-loss rate20.9%
Trailing Win Rate22.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches12
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.59
Current Competition Matches-4
Current Competition PPG0.31
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.56
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.27
Portability PPG Range-0.63
Portability Score12.13
Rest days-0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.20
Normal Rest History Matches13
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.26
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.66
Current Team ELO98.48
Current Opponent ELO-98.48
Current ELO Difference197.0
Expected score0.28
History Matches12
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance6.46
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

U. Catolica

L
Union La Calera3–1U. Catolica25 Oct · away
Pick: U. Catolica 51% · missed
W
U. Catolica3–2O'Higgins1 Sep · home
Pick: U. Catolica 57% · hit
W
Coquimbo Unido1–2U. Catolica26 Aug · away
Pick: Coquimbo Unido 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Deportes Limache

W
Deportes Limache2–0A. Italiano2 Nov · home
Pick: Deportes Limache 46% · hit
W
Universidad de Concepcion0–1Deportes Limache25 Oct · away
Pick: Deportes Limache 46% · hit
L
Deportes Limache0–3Everton de Vina29 Aug · home
Pick: Deportes Limache 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

U. Catolica and Deportes Limache meet in Primera División on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Claro Arena, Santiago de Chile. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: U. Catolica win 60.4%, draw 20.0%, Deportes Limache win 19.6%. The pick is U. Catolica win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.3%. Both teams to score: 60.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.