ScoreProb
Primera División Chile Round 27 2026

Everton de Vina vs Concepción

Everton de Vina Home · Elo 1,496
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Concepción Away · Elo 1,532
Estadio Sausalito, Vina del Mar Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Concepción win
Everton de Vina win
35.3%
Draw
29.3%
Concepción winPick
35.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.5%
No47.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.9%
Under 2.548.1%

How much we know

Everton de Vina history50 matches
Concepción history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Concepción are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Concepción are rated 36 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,532 against 1,496. On rating alone Concepción would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.28 goals a game over 50 matches for Everton de Vina, against 1.33 over 58 for Concepción.

  • Defences are close

    Everton de Vina concede 1.46 a game, Concepción 1.34.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    56% of Everton de Vina matches, against 52% for Concepción. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Everton de Vina
Concepción
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1496.3
ELO
1532.0
50
ELO · Matches
58
1496.3
Current Team ELO
1532.0
1532.0
Current Opponent ELO
1496.3
-35.67
Current ELO Difference
35.67
0.45
Expected score
0.55
50
History Matches
58
0.00
Residual Mean
0.03
49.90
Overperformance
51.94
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.42
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.60
2.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.60
Goals against per game
0.20
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
2.50
2.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.50
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
1.63
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.33
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
58
1.18
PPG
1.34
32.0%
Win rate
37.9%
22.0%
Draw rate
20.7%
46.0%
Loss rate
41.4%
74.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.6%
56.0%
Over 2.5 rate
51.7%
28.0%
Over 3.5 rate
22.4%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
30
1.20
PPG
0.97
28.0%
Win rate
26.7%
36.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
36.0%
Loss rate
56.7%
76.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
56.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
32.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
25
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.28
Goals for per game
1.33
70.0%
Scoring rate
75.9%
54.0%
BTTS rate
51.7%
1.36
Goals for per game
1.17
76.0%
Scoring rate
76.7%
64.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
1.53
Goals for per game
1.28
70.6%
Scoring rate
77.8%
52.9%
BTTS rate
38.9%
50
History Matches
58
1.28
Goals Mean
1.33
1.17
Goals Std
1.07
70.0%
Scored 1+ rate
75.9%
34.0%
Scored 2+ rate
37.9%
20.0%
Scored 3+ rate
15.5%
1.36
Venue Goals Mean
1.17
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.46
Goals against per game
1.34
82.0%
Conceding rate
69.0%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.67
84.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.18
Goals against per game
1.06
76.5%
Conceding rate
61.1%
50
History Matches
58
1.46
Conceded Mean
1.34
1.17
Conceded Std
1.18
42.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.6%
12.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.1%
1.40
Venue Conceded Mean
1.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
16.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
38.9%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
18.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
16.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
18.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
58
0.96
Result entropy
0.96
1.80
Goal Difference Std
1.59
3.98
Stability score
3.62
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
58
11
Lead Matches
19
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
84.2%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.84
17
Trailing Matches
14
35.3%
Non-loss rate
21.4%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.78
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.90
Rest days
77.21
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
18
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.30
30
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.27
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
17
Matches
18
1.47
PPG
1.50
41.2%
Win rate
44.4%
23.5%
Draw rate
16.7%
35.3%
Loss rate
38.9%
70.6%
Over 1.5 rate
72.2%
47.1%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
29.4%
Over 3.5 rate
11.1%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
17
Current Competition Matches
18
1.47
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.35
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.22
6
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.43
Portability PPG Std
0.65
1.35
Portability PPG Range
1.97
53.73
Portability Score
43.61
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-35.67
PPG-0.16
GF-0.05
GA0.12
PPG-0.03
PPG0.23
PPG-1.00
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate5.9%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate0.7%
History Matches-8
Goals Mean-0.05
Goals Std0.09
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate4.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.19
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.22
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean0.12
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean-0.27
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.40
History Matches-8
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.20
Stability score0.35
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.30
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate13.9%
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.03
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.13
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.22
Portability PPG Range-0.62
Portability Score10.12
Rest days-1.31
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match3.00
Normal Rest History Matches-12
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.30
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Current Team ELO-35.67
Current Opponent ELO35.67
Current ELO Difference-71.34
Expected score-0.10
History Matches-8
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.29

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Everton de Vina

L
Universidad de Chile4–1Everton de Vina26 Oct · away
Pick: Universidad de Chile 56% · hit
W
Deportes Limache0–3Everton de Vina29 Aug · away
Pick: Deportes Limache 49% · missed
W
Everton de Vina3–1Universidad de Concepcion24 Aug · home
Pick: Everton de Vina 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Concepción

W
Concepción1–0Palestino2 Nov · home
Pick: Concepción 46% · hit
L
D. La Serena3–1Concepción24 Oct · away
Pick: D. La Serena 40% · hit
L
O'Higgins2–0Concepción4 Oct · away
Pick: O'Higgins 43% · hit
W
Nublense0–1Concepción30 Aug · away
Pick: Nublense 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Everton de Vina and Concepción meet in Primera División on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Sausalito, Vina del Mar. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Everton de Vina win 35.3%, draw 29.3%, Concepción win 35.4%. The pick is Concepción win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.9%. Both teams to score: 52.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.