ScoreProb
League One China Round 30 2026

Dalian Huayi vs Meizhou Kejia

Dalian Huayi Home · Elo 1,473
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Meizhou Kejia Away · Elo 1,395
Dalian Sports Center Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dalian Huayi win
Dalian Huayi winPick
57.8%
Draw
20.6%
Meizhou Kejia win
21.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.9%
No44.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.5%
Under 2.537.5%

How much we know

Dalian Huayi history53 matches
Meizhou Kejia history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 21 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 06:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Dalian Huayi are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Dalian Huayi are rated 78 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,473 against 1,395. On rating alone Dalian Huayi would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Dalian Huayi score more

    1.34 goals a game over 53 matches for Dalian Huayi, against 1.12 over 52 for Meizhou Kejia.

  • Dalian Huayi concede fewer

    Dalian Huayi concede 1.38 a game, Meizhou Kejia 2.21.

  • Meizhou Kejia games more often go over 2.5 goals

    58% of Dalian Huayi matches, against 73% for Meizhou Kejia. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dalian Huayi
Meizhou Kejia
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1472.5
ELO
1394.8
53
ELO · Matches
52
1472.5
Current Team ELO
1394.8
1394.8
Current Opponent ELO
1472.5
77.78
Current ELO Difference
-77.78
0.61
Expected score
0.39
53
History Matches
52
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.10
48.27
Overperformance
42.74
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.60
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.60
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.00
1.50
Goals for per game
1.20
1.90
Goals against per game
2.00
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.48
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.04
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
52
1.26
PPG
0.79
32.1%
Win rate
21.2%
30.2%
Draw rate
15.4%
37.7%
Loss rate
63.5%
84.9%
Over 1.5 rate
86.5%
58.5%
Over 2.5 rate
73.1%
24.5%
Over 3.5 rate
44.2%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
27
1.63
PPG
0.63
40.7%
Win rate
14.8%
40.7%
Draw rate
18.5%
18.5%
Loss rate
66.7%
81.5%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
51.9%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
18.5%
Over 3.5 rate
29.6%
1.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
27
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.34
Goals for per game
1.12
73.6%
Scoring rate
73.1%
64.2%
BTTS rate
63.5%
1.44
Goals for per game
0.81
77.8%
Scoring rate
63.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
55.6%
1.32
Goals for per game
1.00
73.7%
Scoring rate
65.0%
68.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
53
History Matches
52
1.34
Goals Mean
1.12
1.15
Goals Std
0.91
73.6%
Scored 1+ rate
73.1%
39.6%
Scored 2+ rate
28.8%
15.1%
Scored 3+ rate
9.6%
1.44
Venue Goals Mean
0.81
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.38
Goals against per game
2.21
81.1%
Conceding rate
90.4%
1.11
Goals against per game
2.00
74.1%
Conceding rate
92.6%
1.58
Goals against per game
2.00
84.2%
Conceding rate
85.0%
53
History Matches
52
1.38
Conceded Mean
2.21
0.94
Conceded Std
1.39
45.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
67.3%
9.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
36.5%
1.11
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.9%
Clean-sheet rate
9.6%
26.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
7.4%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
15.8%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
35.0%
18.9%
Clean-sheet rate
9.6%
26.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
7.4%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
18.9%
Clean-sheet rate
9.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
52
1.00
Result entropy
0.82
1.45
Goal Difference Std
1.82
0.42
Stability score
17.61
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
52
12
Lead Matches
10
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
70.0%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.77
14
Trailing Matches
30
28.6%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.42
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.10
0.72
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.12
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.81
Rest days
76.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
26
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.65
25
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.92
Competition & season17 signals
170
19
Matches
20
1.11
PPG
1.00
26.3%
Win rate
30.0%
31.6%
Draw rate
10.0%
42.1%
Loss rate
60.0%
78.9%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
57.9%
Over 2.5 rate
65.0%
31.6%
Over 3.5 rate
35.0%
1.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
19
Current Competition Matches
20
1.11
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-0.26
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
4
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.13
Portability PPG Std
0.15
0.29
Portability PPG Range
0.30
79.85
Portability Score
76.92
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO77.78
PPG0.48
GF0.22
GA-0.83
PPG0.11
PPG1.00
PPG0.40
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate9.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate18.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.22
Goals Std0.24
Scored 1+ rate0.5%
Scored 2+ rate10.8%
Scored 3+ rate5.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.63
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.28
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.83
Conceded Std-0.46
Clean-sheet rate9.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.22
Conceded 3+ rate-0.27
Venue Conceded Mean-0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.26
History Matches1
Result entropy0.17
Goal Difference Std-0.37
Stability score-17.20
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.68
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches-16
Non-loss rate8.6%
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.40
Second Half Goals For Mean0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.44
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.11
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.74
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range-0.01
Portability Score2.92
Rest days0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.85
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.08
Current Team ELO77.78
Current Opponent ELO-77.78
Current ELO Difference155.6
Expected score0.22
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance5.53
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dalian Huayi

L
Nanjing City2–0Dalian Huayi31 Oct · away
Pick: Nanjing City 41% · hit
W
Dalian Huayi3–2Guangxi Hengchen24 Oct · home
Pick: Guangxi Hengchen 44% · missed
D
Shenzhen Juniors1–1Dalian Huayi17 Oct · away
Pick: Shenzhen Juniors 47% · missed
L
Hebei Kungfu1–0Dalian Huayi6 Oct · away
Pick: Hebei Kungfu 42% · hit
W
Dalian Huayi3–2Nantong Zhiyun30 Aug · home
Pick: Nantong Zhiyun 38% · missed

Meizhou Kejia

L
Meizhou Kejia0–2Shaanxi Union31 Oct · home
Pick: Shaanxi Union 59% · hit
L
Changchun Yatai4–1Meizhou Kejia24 Oct · away
Pick: Changchun Yatai 56% · hit
L
Meizhou Kejia0–1Nantong Zhiyun18 Oct · home
Pick: Nantong Zhiyun 58% · hit
D
Heilongjiang Lava Spring0–0Meizhou Kejia6 Oct · away
Pick: Heilongjiang Lava Spring 58% · missed
D
Ningbo Professional1–1Meizhou Kejia30 Aug · away
Pick: Ningbo Professional 58% · missed

About this match

Dalian Huayi and Meizhou Kejia meet in League One on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 06:30 UTC. The match is played at Dalian Sports Center Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Dalian Huayi win 57.8%, draw 20.6%, Meizhou Kejia win 21.6%. The pick is Dalian Huayi win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.5%. Both teams to score: 55.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.