ScoreProb
League One China Round 30 2026

Shaanxi Union vs Guangxi Hengchen

Shaanxi Union Home · Elo 1,505
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Guangxi Hengchen Away · Elo 1,620
Weinan Sports Center Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Shaanxi Union win
Shaanxi Union winPick
37.1%
Draw
27.0%
Guangxi Hengchen win
35.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.1%
No45.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.9%
Under 2.547.1%

How much we know

Shaanxi Union history55 matches
Guangxi Hengchen history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 21 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 06:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.1%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Shaanxi Union are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Guangxi Hengchen are rated 114 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,620 against 1,505. On rating alone Guangxi Hengchen would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Guangxi Hengchen score more

    1.56 goals a game over 55 matches for Shaanxi Union, against 1.93 over 54 for Guangxi Hengchen.

  • Guangxi Hengchen concede fewer

    Shaanxi Union concede 1.35 a game, Guangxi Hengchen 0.93.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    62% of Shaanxi Union matches, against 56% for Guangxi Hengchen. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Shaanxi Union
Guangxi Hengchen
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1505.3
ELO
1619.7
55
ELO · Matches
54
1505.3
Current Team ELO
1619.7
1619.7
Current Opponent ELO
1505.3
-114.3
Current ELO Difference
114.3
0.34
Expected score
0.66
55
History Matches
54
0.00
Residual Mean
0.11
50.00
Overperformance
58.07
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.60
1.80
Goals for per game
2.40
1.80
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
2.10
1.70
Goals against per game
1.90
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.45
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.58
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.18
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
54
1.36
PPG
2.13
36.4%
Win rate
64.8%
27.3%
Draw rate
18.5%
36.4%
Loss rate
16.7%
83.6%
Over 1.5 rate
74.1%
61.8%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
30.9%
Over 3.5 rate
25.9%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
26
1.88
PPG
2.00
57.7%
Win rate
61.5%
15.4%
Draw rate
15.4%
26.9%
Loss rate
23.1%
80.8%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
65.4%
Over 2.5 rate
53.8%
34.6%
Over 3.5 rate
23.1%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
26
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.56
Goals for per game
1.93
74.5%
Scoring rate
85.2%
60.0%
BTTS rate
44.4%
1.81
Goals for per game
1.88
80.8%
Scoring rate
80.8%
65.4%
BTTS rate
42.3%
1.47
Goals for per game
1.79
73.7%
Scoring rate
84.2%
47.4%
BTTS rate
57.9%
55
History Matches
54
1.56
Goals Mean
1.93
1.37
Goals Std
1.44
74.5%
Scored 1+ rate
85.2%
41.8%
Scored 2+ rate
55.6%
27.3%
Scored 3+ rate
31.5%
1.81
Venue Goals Mean
1.88
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.35
Goals against per game
0.93
78.2%
Conceding rate
53.7%
1.12
Goals against per game
0.81
80.8%
Conceding rate
53.8%
1.11
Goals against per game
1.26
63.2%
Conceding rate
68.4%
55
History Matches
54
1.35
Conceded Mean
0.93
0.99
Conceded Std
1.14
41.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.1%
12.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.3%
1.12
Venue Conceded Mean
0.81
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.8%
Clean-sheet rate
46.3%
25.5%
Failed-to-score rate
14.8%
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
46.2%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
21.8%
Clean-sheet rate
46.3%
25.5%
Failed-to-score rate
14.8%
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
46.2%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
21.8%
Clean-sheet rate
46.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
54
0.99
Result entropy
0.81
1.85
Goal Difference Std
1.84
0.78
Stability score
18.81
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
53
15
Lead Matches
24
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.88
15
Trailing Matches
12
26.7%
Non-loss rate
41.7%
13.3%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.17
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.79
Rest days
76.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
32
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.31
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.13
19
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.32
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.20
Competition & season17 signals
170
19
Matches
19
1.37
PPG
1.74
36.8%
Win rate
47.4%
26.3%
Draw rate
31.6%
36.8%
Loss rate
21.1%
73.7%
Over 1.5 rate
73.7%
63.2%
Over 2.5 rate
57.9%
21.1%
Over 3.5 rate
26.3%
2.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.31
19
Current Competition Matches
19
1.37
Current Competition PPG
1.74
0.37
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.53
4
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.29
Portability PPG Std
0.29
0.70
Portability PPG Range
0.68
63.34
Portability Score
63.42
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-114.3
PPG-0.77
GF-0.36
GA0.42
PPG-0.37
PPG-0.12
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Failed-to-score rate10.6%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.27
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.36
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean-0.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.25
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.42
Conceded Std-0.14
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Conceded 2+ rate17.7%
Conceded 3+ rate3.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.31
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.39
History Matches1
Result entropy0.18
Goal Difference Std0.01
Stability score-18.03
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.07
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.15
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.37
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.16
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range0.02
Portability Score-0.09
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match2.33
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.81
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.88
Current Team ELO-114.3
Current Opponent ELO114.3
Current ELO Difference-228.6
Expected score-0.32
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-8.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Shaanxi Union

W
Meizhou Kejia0–2Shaanxi Union31 Oct · away
Pick: Shaanxi Union 59% · hit
L
Wuxi Wugou2–0Shaanxi Union25 Oct · away
Pick: Wuxi Wugou 45% · hit
W
Shaanxi Union4–0Guangzhou E-Power18 Oct · home
Pick: Guangzhou E-Power 48% · missed
W
Nanjing City1–4Shaanxi Union7 Oct · away
Pick: Shaanxi Union 40% · hit
W
Shaanxi Union3–1Yanbian Longding29 Aug · home
Pick: Shaanxi Union 44% · hit

Guangxi Hengchen

L
Guangxi Hengchen1–2Wuxi Wugou31 Oct · home
Pick: Guangxi Hengchen 50% · missed
L
Dalian Huayi3–2Guangxi Hengchen24 Oct · away
Pick: Guangxi Hengchen 44% · missed
D
Guangxi Hengchen2–2Changchun Yatai17 Oct · home
Pick: Guangxi Hengchen 64% · missed
L
Dongguan United1–0Guangxi Hengchen7 Oct · away
Pick: Guangxi Hengchen 65% · missed
W
Nanjing City0–2Guangxi Hengchen29 Aug · away
Pick: Guangxi Hengchen 43% · hit

About this match

Shaanxi Union and Guangxi Hengchen meet in League One on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 06:30 UTC. The match is played at Weinan Sports Center Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Shaanxi Union win 37.1%, draw 27.0%, Guangxi Hengchen win 35.9%. The pick is Shaanxi Union win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.9%. Both teams to score: 54.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.