ScoreProb
League One China Round 30 2026

Yanbian Longding vs Hebei Kungfu

Yanbian Longding Home · Elo 1,572
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hebei Kungfu Away · Elo 1,490
Yanji Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Yanbian Longding win
Yanbian Longding winPick
51.3%
Draw
25.8%
Hebei Kungfu win
22.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.6%
No52.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.5%
Under 2.554.5%

How much we know

Yanbian Longding history53 matches
Hebei Kungfu history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 21 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 06:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Yanbian Longding are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Yanbian Longding are rated 82 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,572 against 1,490. On rating alone Yanbian Longding would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Yanbian Longding score more

    1.38 goals a game over 53 matches for Yanbian Longding, against 1.06 over 54 for Hebei Kungfu.

  • Yanbian Longding concede fewer

    Yanbian Longding concede 0.87 a game, Hebei Kungfu 1.15.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    38% of Yanbian Longding matches, against 39% for Hebei Kungfu. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Yanbian Longding
Hebei Kungfu
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1572.1
ELO
1489.7
53
ELO · Matches
54
1572.1
Current Team ELO
1489.7
1489.7
Current Opponent ELO
1572.1
82.36
Current ELO Difference
-82.36
0.62
Expected score
0.38
53
History Matches
54
0.07
Residual Mean
-0.01
54.92
Overperformance
49.25
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.20
1.80
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.50
1.70
Goals for per game
1.20
0.90
Goals against per game
1.30
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.27
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.47
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.14
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
54
1.72
PPG
1.33
47.2%
Win rate
33.3%
30.2%
Draw rate
33.3%
22.6%
Loss rate
33.3%
64.2%
Over 1.5 rate
70.4%
37.7%
Over 2.5 rate
38.9%
18.9%
Over 3.5 rate
20.4%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
27
2.15
PPG
1.33
63.0%
Win rate
33.3%
25.9%
Draw rate
33.3%
11.1%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
40.7%
Over 2.5 rate
37.0%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
27
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.38
Goals for per game
1.06
69.8%
Scoring rate
64.8%
41.5%
BTTS rate
46.3%
1.74
Goals for per game
1.04
81.5%
Scoring rate
59.3%
44.4%
BTTS rate
40.7%
1.50
Goals for per game
0.80
65.0%
Scoring rate
55.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
53
History Matches
54
1.38
Goals Mean
1.06
1.32
Goals Std
0.99
69.8%
Scored 1+ rate
64.8%
37.7%
Scored 2+ rate
31.5%
20.8%
Scored 3+ rate
7.4%
1.74
Venue Goals Mean
1.04
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.87
Goals against per game
1.15
58.5%
Conceding rate
68.5%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.07
55.6%
Conceding rate
63.0%
0.90
Goals against per game
1.20
65.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
53
History Matches
54
0.87
Conceded Mean
1.15
0.91
Conceded Std
1.08
22.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
3.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.4%
0.67
Venue Conceded Mean
1.07
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
41.5%
Clean-sheet rate
31.5%
30.2%
Failed-to-score rate
35.2%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
40.7%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
35.0%
Failed-to-score rate
45.0%
41.5%
Clean-sheet rate
31.5%
30.2%
Failed-to-score rate
35.2%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
40.7%
41.5%
Clean-sheet rate
31.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
54
0.96
Result entropy
1.00
1.56
Goal Difference Std
1.57
4.21
Stability score
0.00
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
54
11
Lead Matches
20
90.9%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.70
12
Trailing Matches
9
50.0%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.89
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.81
Rest days
76.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
27
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.89
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.59
24
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.54
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.95
Competition & season17 signals
170
20
Matches
20
1.75
PPG
1.05
45.0%
Win rate
25.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
30.0%
15.0%
Loss rate
45.0%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
65.0%
45.0%
Over 2.5 rate
45.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
5.0%
1.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.11
20
Current Competition Matches
20
1.75
Current Competition PPG
1.05
0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.40
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.04
Portability PPG Std
0.26
0.08
Portability PPG Range
0.52
92.31
Portability Score
65.93
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO82.36
PPG0.38
GF0.32
GA-0.28
PPG0.70
PPG0.81
PPG-0.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate10.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate7.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.32
Goals Std0.33
Scored 1+ rate5.0%
Scored 2+ rate6.3%
Scored 3+ rate13.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.40
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.28
Conceded Std-0.17
Clean-sheet rate10.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.41
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.06
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.01
Stability score4.21
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.33
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate30.9%
Lead Points Retention0.24
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate38.9%
Trailing Win Rate8.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.34
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.70
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.22
Portability PPG Range-0.43
Portability Score26.37
Rest days0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.30
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.59
Current Team ELO82.36
Current Opponent ELO-82.36
Current ELO Difference164.7
Expected score0.23
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance5.67
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Yanbian Longding

W
Suzhou Dongwu0–1Yanbian Longding31 Oct · away
Pick: Yanbian Longding 37% · hit
W
Heilongjiang Lava Spring1–2Yanbian Longding25 Oct · away
Pick: Yanbian Longding 38% · hit
W
Yanbian Longding5–0Dongguan United17 Oct · home
Pick: Yanbian Longding 73% · hit
D
Changchun Yatai1–1Yanbian Longding6 Oct · away
Pick: Yanbian Longding 44% · missed
L
Shaanxi Union3–1Yanbian Longding29 Aug · away
Pick: Shaanxi Union 44% · hit

Hebei Kungfu

D
Hebei Kungfu1–1Guangzhou E-Power31 Oct · home
Pick: Guangzhou E-Power 51% · missed
W
Hebei Kungfu3–2Ningbo Professional24 Oct · home
Pick: Hebei Kungfu 42% · hit
L
Nanjing City1–0Hebei Kungfu18 Oct · away
Pick: Nanjing City 42% · hit
W
Hebei Kungfu1–0Dalian Huayi6 Oct · home
Pick: Hebei Kungfu 42% · hit
W
Hebei Kungfu2–0Wuxi Wugou29 Aug · home
Pick: Wuxi Wugou 37% · missed

About this match

Yanbian Longding and Hebei Kungfu meet in League One on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 06:30 UTC. The match is played at Yanji Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Yanbian Longding win 51.3%, draw 25.8%, Hebei Kungfu win 22.9%. The pick is Yanbian Longding win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.5%. Both teams to score: 47.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.