ScoreProb
NB I Hungary Round 13 2026

Debreceni VSC vs Ujpest

Debreceni VSC Home · Elo 1,541
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ujpest Away · Elo 1,529
Nagyerdei Stadion, Debrecen Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ujpest win
Debreceni VSC win
34.8%
Draw
23.9%
Ujpest winPick
41.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.8%
No46.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.9%
Under 2.543.1%

How much we know

Debreceni VSC history66 matches
Ujpest history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.3%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,228 matches.

Why Ujpest are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,541 against 1,529. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.44 goals a game over 66 matches for Debreceni VSC, against 1.43 over 67 for Ujpest.

  • Debreceni VSC concede fewer

    Debreceni VSC concede 1.36 a game, Ujpest 1.61.

  • Ujpest games more often go over 2.5 goals

    53% of Debreceni VSC matches, against 61% for Ujpest. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Debreceni VSC
Ujpest@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1541.2
ELO
1528.9
66
ELO · Matches
67
1541.2
Current Team ELO
1528.9
1528.9
Current Opponent ELO
1541.2
12.25
Current ELO Difference
-12.25
0.52
Expected score
0.48
66
History Matches
67
0.03
Residual Mean
0.02
52.20
Overperformance
51.63
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.40
0.60
Goals for per game
2.00
1.80
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.60
0.70
Goals for per game
1.90
1.50
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
0.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.51
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.68
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
67
1.42
PPG
1.30
37.9%
Win rate
32.8%
28.8%
Draw rate
31.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
35.8%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
83.6%
53.0%
Over 2.5 rate
61.2%
28.8%
Over 3.5 rate
34.3%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
34
1.38
PPG
1.18
37.5%
Win rate
29.4%
25.0%
Draw rate
29.4%
37.5%
Loss rate
41.2%
71.9%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
55.9%
21.9%
Over 3.5 rate
35.3%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
32
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.44
Goals for per game
1.43
75.8%
Scoring rate
71.6%
56.1%
BTTS rate
62.7%
1.28
Goals for per game
1.32
71.9%
Scoring rate
64.7%
59.4%
BTTS rate
52.9%
0.80
Goals for per game
2.00
60.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
66
History Matches
67
1.44
Goals Mean
1.43
1.26
Goals Std
1.36
75.8%
Scored 1+ rate
71.6%
37.9%
Scored 2+ rate
41.8%
21.2%
Scored 3+ rate
16.4%
1.28
Venue Goals Mean
1.32
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.36
Goals against per game
1.61
69.7%
Conceding rate
82.1%
1.34
Goals against per game
1.65
81.3%
Conceding rate
76.5%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
66
History Matches
67
1.36
Conceded Mean
1.61
1.30
Conceded Std
1.28
37.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
49.3%
18.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.4%
1.34
Venue Conceded Mean
1.65
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
28.4%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
28.1%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
28.4%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
28.1%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
67
0.99
Result entropy
1.00
1.70
Goal Difference Std
1.91
0.57
Stability score
0.14
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
66
16
Lead Matches
22
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
72.7%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.77
21
Trailing Matches
15
28.6%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
9.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.96
Rest days
78.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.80
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.41
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.25
31
Long Rest History Matches
33
1.32
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.39
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
20.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.40
-0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.20
6
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.23
Portability PPG Std
0.56
0.61
Portability PPG Range
1.46
68.79
Portability Score
47.33
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO12.25
PPG0.13
GF0.01
GA-0.25
PPG-0.40
PPG0.20
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate12.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.01
Goals Std-0.11
Scored 1+ rate4.1%
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate4.8%
Venue Goals Mean-0.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.87
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.25
Conceded Std0.02
Clean-sheet rate12.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate1.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.93
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.21
Stability score0.42
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.04
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate2.3%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate8.6%
Trailing Win Rate9.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.80
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.33
Portability PPG Range-0.85
Portability Score21.47
Rest days-2.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match1.80
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.16
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Current Team ELO12.25
Current Opponent ELO-12.25
Current ELO Difference24.50
Expected score0.04
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.57
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Debreceni VSC

W
Puskas Academy1–3Debreceni VSC1 Nov · away
Pick: Puskas Academy 55% · missed
W
Csepel2–3Debreceni VSC28 Oct · away
Pick: Debreceni VSC 41% · hit
W
Budapest Honved0–2Debreceni VSC24 Oct · away
Pick: Budapest Honved 51% · missed
W
Debreceni VSC3–0Zalaegerszegi TE18 Oct · home
Pick: Debreceni VSC 49% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ujpest

W
Ujpest2–1Nyiregyhaza1 Nov · home
Pick: Ujpest 53% · hit
W
Szeged 20111–3Ujpest29 Oct · away
Pick: Ujpest 40% · hit
L
Gyori ETO FC1–0Ujpest24 Oct · away
Pick: Gyori ETO FC 66% · hit
L
Ujpest0–1Puskas Academy17 Oct · home
Pick: Puskas Academy 40% · hit
W
Ujpest3–1Vasas29 Aug · home
Pick: Vasas 41% · missed

About this match

Debreceni VSC and Ujpest meet in NB I on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:30 UTC. The match is played at Nagyerdei Stadion, Debrecen. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Debreceni VSC win 34.8%, draw 23.9%, Ujpest win 41.3%. The pick is Ujpest win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.9%. Both teams to score: 53.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.