ScoreProb
Liga 2 Indonesia Round 9 2026

Dejan vs PSBS Biak Numfor

Dejan Home · Elo 1,499
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
PSBS Biak Numfor Away · Elo 1,367
Stadion Kera Sakti Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dejan win
Dejan winPick
52.0%
Draw
24.0%
PSBS Biak Numfor win
24.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.8%
No46.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.7%
Under 2.529.3%

How much we know

Dejan history4 matches
PSBS Biak Numfor history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 23 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 08:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Dejan are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Dejan are rated 132 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,499 against 1,367. On rating alone Dejan would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Dejan score far more

    1.75 goals a game over 4 matches for Dejan, against 0.98 over 49 for PSBS Biak Numfor.

  • Dejan concede fewer

    Dejan concede 1.50 a game, PSBS Biak Numfor 2.33.

  • PSBS Biak Numfor games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Dejan matches, against 63% for PSBS Biak Numfor. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dejan
PSBS Biak Numfor
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1499.1
ELO
1367.1
4
ELO · Matches
49
1499.1
Current Team ELO
1367.1
1367.1
Current Opponent ELO
1499.1
132.0
Current ELO Difference
-132.0
0.68
Expected score
0.32
4
History Matches
49
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.14
49.81
Overperformance
40.40
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.33
Recent form16 signals
160
4
Matches
5
1.50
PPG
0.00
1.75
Goals for per game
0.40
1.50
Goals against per game
5.60
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
4
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.00
1.75
Goals for per game
0.40
1.50
Goals against per game
4.40
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.75
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.40
1.79
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.66
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
4.40
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.01
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.00
1.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.95
Overall performance9 signals
90
4
Matches
49
1.50
PPG
0.80
50.0%
Win rate
18.4%
0.0%
Draw rate
24.5%
50.0%
Loss rate
57.1%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.6%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
63.3%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.23
Venue performance10 signals
100
2
Matches
25
1.50
PPG
0.64
50.0%
Win rate
12.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
28.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
84.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
48.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.28
2
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.75
Goals for per game
0.98
50.0%
Scoring rate
61.2%
50.0%
BTTS rate
55.1%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.88
50.0%
Scoring rate
64.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
56.0%
4
History Matches
49
1.75
Goals Mean
0.98
1.79
Goals Std
0.96
50.0%
Scored 1+ rate
61.2%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
30.6%
50.0%
Scored 3+ rate
4.1%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.88
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.50
Goals against per game
2.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
85.7%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.52
100.0%
Conceding rate
84.0%
4
History Matches
49
1.50
Conceded Mean
2.33
0.87
Conceded Std
1.89
25.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
59.2%
25.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
34.7%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
4
History Matches
49
0.63
Result entropy
0.89
1.30
Goal Difference Std
2.23
36.91
Stability score
11.20
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
4
Eligible Matches
49
1
Lead Matches
8
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.63
2
Trailing Matches
20
0.0%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
4
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.75
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.53
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
630.0
Rest days
168.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
3
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.89
0
Long Rest History Matches
21
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.71
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.44
—
Portability PPG Range
0.87
—
Portability Score
53.46
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
4
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO132.0
PPG0.70
GF0.77
GA-0.83
PPG0.86
PPG1.50
PPG1.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-45
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate11.2%
History Matches-23
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate14.0%
History Matches-45
Goals Mean0.77
Goals Std0.83
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate19.4%
Scored 3+ rate45.9%
Venue Goals Mean1.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.35
Recent 10 Goals Std1.12
History Matches-45
Conceded Mean-0.83
Conceded Std-1.02
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate-0.34
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.52
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-2.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.14
History Matches-45
Result entropy-0.26
Goal Difference Std-0.93
Stability score25.71
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.63
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.65
Eligible Matches-45
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate50.0%
Lead Points Retention0.38
Trailing Matches-18
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches-45
First Half Goals For Mean0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.78
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days462.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-24
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.11
Long Rest History Matches-21
Current Team ELO132.0
Current Opponent ELO-132.0
Current ELO Difference264.0
Expected score0.36
History Matches-45
Residual Mean0.12
Overperformance9.41
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.32

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dejan

W
Deltras0–2Dejan31 Oct · away
Pick: Deltras 57% · missed
D
Persela Lamongan2–2Dejan25 Oct · away
Pick: Persela Lamongan 60% · missed
L
Dejan0–2Barito Putera18 Oct · home
Pick: Barito Putera 46% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

PSBS Biak Numfor

L
Persiba Balikpapan3–1PSBS Biak Numfor29 Oct · away
Pick: Persiba Balikpapan 48% · hit
L
PSBS Biak Numfor0–3Barito Putera23 Oct · home
Pick: Barito Putera 57% · hit
L
PSBS Biak Numfor1–6Persipura Jayapura17 Oct · home
Pick: Persipura Jayapura 57% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Dejan and PSBS Biak Numfor meet in Liga 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 08:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Kera Sakti. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Dejan win 52.0%, draw 24.0%, PSBS Biak Numfor win 24.1%. The pick is Dejan win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.7%. Both teams to score: 53.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.