ScoreProb
Liga 2 Indonesia Round 9 2026

PSMS Medan vs Persiraja Banda Aceh

PSMS Medan Home · Elo 1,500
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Persiraja Banda Aceh Away · Elo 1,536
Stadion Teladan, Medan Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: PSMS Medan win
PSMS Medan winPick
46.6%
Draw
27.3%
Persiraja Banda Aceh win
26.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.5%
No49.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.0%
Under 2.553.0%

How much we know

PSMS Medan history33 matches
Persiraja Banda Aceh history31 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why PSMS Medan are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Persiraja Banda Aceh are rated 36 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,536 against 1,500. On rating alone Persiraja Banda Aceh would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Persiraja Banda Aceh score more

    1.27 goals a game over 33 matches for PSMS Medan, against 1.58 over 31 for Persiraja Banda Aceh.

  • Defences are close

    PSMS Medan concede 1.18 a game, Persiraja Banda Aceh 1.16.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    39% of PSMS Medan matches, against 42% for Persiraja Banda Aceh. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 1 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
PSMS Medan
Persiraja Banda Aceh
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1499.8
ELO
1536.0
33
ELO · Matches
31
1499.8
Current Team ELO
1536.0
1536.0
Current Opponent ELO
1499.8
-36.23
Current ELO Difference
36.23
0.45
Expected score
0.55
33
History Matches
31
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.05
49.40
Overperformance
53.26
-0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.20
0.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.80
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.60
0.80
Goals for per game
1.90
1.50
Goals against per game
1.50
10.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.02
Overall performance9 signals
90
33
Matches
31
1.36
PPG
1.58
36.4%
Win rate
41.9%
27.3%
Draw rate
32.3%
36.4%
Loss rate
25.8%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
71.0%
39.4%
Over 2.5 rate
41.9%
24.2%
Over 3.5 rate
32.3%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
Venue performance10 signals
100
15
Matches
16
2.07
PPG
1.06
60.0%
Win rate
25.0%
26.7%
Draw rate
31.3%
13.3%
Loss rate
43.8%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
56.3%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
31.3%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
31.3%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.90
15
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.27
Goals for per game
1.58
75.8%
Scoring rate
77.4%
57.6%
BTTS rate
61.3%
1.60
Goals for per game
1.13
86.7%
Scoring rate
56.3%
53.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
33
History Matches
31
1.27
Goals Mean
1.58
1.08
Goals Std
1.34
75.8%
Scored 1+ rate
77.4%
30.3%
Scored 2+ rate
41.9%
18.2%
Scored 3+ rate
25.8%
1.60
Venue Goals Mean
1.13
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.18
Goals against per game
1.16
81.8%
Conceding rate
77.4%
0.80
Goals against per game
1.38
66.7%
Conceding rate
81.3%
33
History Matches
31
1.18
Conceded Mean
1.16
0.87
Conceded Std
0.92
27.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.0%
6.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.5%
0.80
Venue Conceded Mean
1.38
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
43.8%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
43.8%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
33
History Matches
31
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
1.46
Goal Difference Std
1.39
0.78
Stability score
1.79
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
33
Eligible Matches
31
11
Lead Matches
7
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
1.00
8
Trailing Matches
8
25.0%
Non-loss rate
75.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
33
Halftime Coverage Matches
31
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
98.15
Rest days
189.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
18
Normal Rest History Matches
18
1.11
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
13
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.69
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.58
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.93
Portability PPG Std
0.13
2.25
Portability PPG Range
0.26
35.05
Portability Score
79.27
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
33
Clean History Matches
31
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-36.23
PPG-0.22
GF-0.31
GA0.02
PPG1.00
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate1.7%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate14.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.30
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.31
Goals Std-0.26
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.48
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.54
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.02
Conceded Std-0.05
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean-0.58
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches2
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.08
Stability score-1.01
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.08
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.27
Lead Points Retention-0.18
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.50
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.80
Portability PPG Range1.99
Portability Score-44.22
Rest days-90.97
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.39
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.11
Current Team ELO-36.23
Current Opponent ELO36.23
Current ELO Difference-72.45
Expected score-0.10
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-3.86
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

PSMS Medan

W
PSGC Ciamis1–2PSMS Medan31 Oct · away
Pick: PSGC Ciamis 35% · missed
W
PSMS Medan2–1PSIS Semarang25 Oct · home
Pick: PSMS Medan 46% · hit
D
Semen Padang1–1PSMS Medan17 Oct · away
Pick: PSMS Medan 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Persiraja Banda Aceh

W
Persiku Kudus1–3Persiraja Banda Aceh30 Oct · away
Pick: Persiku Kudus 38% · missed
W
Persiraja Banda Aceh2–1PSGC Ciamis24 Oct · home
Pick: Persiraja Banda Aceh 65% · hit
D
Persiraja Banda Aceh0–0Bekasi City17 Oct · home
Pick: Persiraja Banda Aceh 34% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

PSMS Medan and Persiraja Banda Aceh meet in Liga 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Teladan, Medan. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: PSMS Medan win 46.6%, draw 27.3%, Persiraja Banda Aceh win 26.1%. The pick is PSMS Medan win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.0%. Both teams to score: 50.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.