Delfines Coatzacoalcos vs Mineros de Fresnillo
Match result probability Model pick: Delfines Coatzacoalcos win
Delfines Coatzacoalcos winPick
36.4%
Draw
29.7%
Mineros de Fresnillo win
33.9%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes58.0%
No42.0%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.555.4%
Under 2.544.6%
How much we know
Delfines Coatzacoalcos history0 matches
Mineros de Fresnillo history35 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Delfines Coatzacoalcos
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 20:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 21:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.4%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why Delfines Coatzacoalcos are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,500 against 1,513. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mineros de Fresnillo@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1500.0
ELO
1513.3
0
ELO · Matches
35
1500.0
Current Team ELO
1513.3
1513.3
Current Opponent ELO
1500.0
-13.30
Current ELO Difference
13.30
0.48
Expected score
0.52
0
History Matches
35
—
Residual Mean
0.01
—
Overperformance
50.43
—
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals 160
0
Matches
5
—
PPG
1.60
—
Goals for per game
2.20
—
Goals against per game
1.20
—
Win rate
40.0%
0
Matches
10
—
PPG
1.50
—
Goals for per game
1.90
—
Goals against per game
1.50
—
Win rate
40.0%
—
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.70
—
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.81
—
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals 90
0
Matches
35
—
PPG
1.29
—
Win rate
34.3%
—
Draw rate
25.7%
—
Loss rate
40.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
77.1%
—
Over 2.5 rate
68.6%
—
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.02
Venue performance10 signals 100
0
Matches
20
—
PPG
0.90
—
Win rate
20.0%
—
Draw rate
30.0%
—
Loss rate
50.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
0
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
—
Goals for per game
1.57
—
Scoring rate
77.1%
—
BTTS rate
62.9%
—
Goals for per game
1.25
—
Scoring rate
60.0%
—
BTTS rate
50.0%
0
History Matches
35
—
Goals Mean
1.57
—
Goals Std
1.44
—
Scored 1+ rate
77.1%
—
Scored 2+ rate
45.7%
—
Scored 3+ rate
17.1%
—
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
—
Goals against per game
1.74
—
Conceding rate
80.0%
—
Goals against per game
1.60
—
Conceding rate
80.0%
0
History Matches
35
—
Conceded Mean
1.74
—
Conceded Std
1.42
—
Conceded 2+ rate
54.3%
—
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
—
Venue Conceded Mean
1.60
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
—
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
22.9%
—
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
22.9%
—
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
0
History Matches
35
—
Result entropy
0.99
—
Goal Difference Std
2.02
—
Stability score
1.44
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
0
Eligible Matches
33
0
Lead Matches
11
—
Lead Win Rate
72.7%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.79
0
Trailing Matches
11
—
Non-loss rate
18.2%
—
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals 50
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
33
—
First Half Goals For Mean
0.88
—
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
—
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
—
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
Rest days
213.2
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
0
Normal Rest History Matches
13
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
0
Long Rest History Matches
21
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.86
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
0
Competition Season Count
2
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.34
—
Portability PPG Range
0.68
—
Portability Score
59.39
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
0
Clean History Matches
35
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO-13.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-35
History Matches-20
History Matches-35
History Matches-35
History Matches-35
Eligible Matches-33
Lead Matches-11
Trailing Matches-11
Halftime Coverage Matches-33
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-13
Long Rest History Matches-21
Current Team ELO-13.30
Current Opponent ELO13.30
Current ELO Difference-26.60
Expected score-0.04
History Matches-35
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Delfines Coatzacoalcos
W
Delfines Coatzacoalcos3–1La Tribu de Cd. Juarez31 Oct · home
Pick: Delfines Coatzacoalcos 50% · hit W
Vaqueros Reynosa0–1Delfines Coatzacoalcos25 Oct · away
Pick: Vaqueros Reynosa 50% · missed W
Calor de San Pedro1–2Delfines Coatzacoalcos16 Oct · away
Pick: Calor de San Pedro 62% · missed D
Halcones Negros0–0Delfines Coatzacoalcos30 Aug · away
Pick: Halcones Negros 50% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Mineros de Fresnillo
W
Mineros de Fresnillo3–1Acambaro7 Nov · home
Pick: Mineros de Fresnillo 53% · hit L
Dragones de Oaxaca2–0Mineros de Fresnillo1 Nov · away
Pick: Mineros de Fresnillo 46% · missed W
Mineros de Fresnillo4–1Calor de San Pedro25 Oct · home
Pick: Calor de San Pedro 36% · missed D
Mineros de Fresnillo0–0Guerreros17 Oct · home
Pick: Mineros de Fresnillo 55% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Delfines Coatzacoalcos and Mineros de Fresnillo meet in Liga Premier Serie A on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 21:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Delfines Coatzacoalcos win 36.4%, draw 29.7%, Mineros de Fresnillo win 33.9%. The pick is Delfines Coatzacoalcos win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.4%. Both teams to score: 58.0%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.