ScoreProb
UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification World Play-offs 2027

Denmark U21 vs Netherlands U21

Denmark U21 Home · Elo 1,529
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
Netherlands U21 Away · Elo 1,503
Vejle Stadion Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Denmark U21 win
Denmark U21 winPick
54.6%
Draw
18.3%
Netherlands U21 win
27.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.1%
No41.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.8%
Under 2.532.2%

How much we know

Denmark U21 history9 matches
Netherlands U21 history11 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 17:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.6%). Picks in that band won 55.7% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,845 matches.

Why Denmark U21 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Denmark U21 are rated 26 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,529 against 1,503. On rating alone Denmark U21 would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Denmark U21 score far more

    2.33 goals a game over 9 matches for Denmark U21, against 1.45 over 11 for Netherlands U21.

  • Defences are close

    Denmark U21 concede 1.44 a game, Netherlands U21 1.36.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    67% of Denmark U21 matches, against 64% for Netherlands U21. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 31 Mar 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Denmark U21
Netherlands U21@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1528.6
ELO
1502.8
9
ELO · Matches
11
1528.6
Current Team ELO
1502.8
1502.8
Current Opponent ELO
1528.6
25.79
Current ELO Difference
-25.79
0.54
Expected score
0.46
9
History Matches
11
0.15
Residual Mean
0.00
54.58
Overperformance
50.15
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
2.40
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
9
Matches
10
1.89
PPG
1.40
2.33
Goals for per game
1.40
1.44
Goals against per game
1.30
55.6%
Win rate
40.0%
2.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.66
1.44
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.96
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.91
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.91
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.30
Overall performance9 signals
90
9
Matches
11
1.89
PPG
1.36
55.6%
Win rate
36.4%
22.2%
Draw rate
27.3%
22.2%
Loss rate
36.4%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
55.6%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.24
Venue performance10 signals
100
4
Matches
6
1.25
PPG
0.83
25.0%
Win rate
16.7%
50.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
25.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.96
4
History Matches
6
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.33
Goals for per game
1.45
88.9%
Scoring rate
90.9%
66.7%
BTTS rate
63.6%
2.25
Goals for per game
1.17
100.0%
Scoring rate
83.3%
75.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
2.40
Goals for per game
1.40
80.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
9
History Matches
11
2.33
Goals Mean
1.45
1.70
Goals Std
0.66
88.9%
Scored 1+ rate
90.9%
66.7%
Scored 2+ rate
54.5%
33.3%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
2.25
Venue Goals Mean
1.17
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.44
Goals against per game
1.36
77.8%
Conceding rate
63.6%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.67
75.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
9
History Matches
11
1.44
Conceded Mean
1.36
0.96
Conceded Std
1.15
55.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.5%
11.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.2%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
9.1%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
9.1%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
9
History Matches
11
0.91
Result entropy
0.99
1.91
Goal Difference Std
1.24
9.43
Stability score
0.78
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
9
Eligible Matches
11
2
Lead Matches
2
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
1.00
3
Trailing Matches
3
100.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
9
Halftime Coverage Matches
11
0.78
First Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
1.56
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
227.1
Rest days
228.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.25
3
Normal Rest History Matches
2
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.00
4
Long Rest History Matches
4
2.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
2.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.33
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
1.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.20
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.13
Portability PPG Std
0.20
0.25
Portability PPG Range
0.40
80.00
Portability Score
71.43
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
9
Clean History Matches
11
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO25.79
PPG0.53
GF0.88
GA0.08
PPG1.00
PPG0.42
PPG0.60
PPG0.49
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate2.0%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.88
Goals Std1.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate12.1%
Scored 3+ rate33.3%
Venue Goals Mean1.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.93
Recent 10 Goals Std1.04
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.08
Conceded Std-0.19
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate1.0%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.23
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std0.67
Stability score8.65
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.61
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.50
Lead Points Retention-0.33
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate66.7%
Trailing Win Rate66.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.60
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.08
Portability PPG Range-0.15
Portability Score8.57
Rest days-0.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.25
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.00
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match1.25
Current Team ELO25.79
Current Opponent ELO-25.79
Current ELO Difference51.58
Expected score0.07
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.14
Overperformance4.43
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Denmark U21

D
Denmark U210–0Belgium U216 Oct · home
Pick: Belgium U21 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Netherlands U21

W
Netherlands U214–0Bosnia-Herzegovina U216 Oct · home
Pick: Netherlands U21 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Denmark U21 and Netherlands U21 meet in UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 17:30 UTC. The match is played at Vejle Stadion. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Denmark U21 win 54.6%, draw 18.3%, Netherlands U21 win 27.1%. The pick is Denmark U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.8%. Both teams to score: 58.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.