ScoreProb
UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification World Play-offs 2027

Finland U21 vs Republic of Ireland U21

Finland U21 Home · Elo 1,547
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
Republic of Ireland U21 Away · Elo 1,509
Tammelan Stadion, Tampere Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Finland U21 win
Finland U21 winPick
70.4%
Draw
20.3%
Republic of Ireland U21 win
9.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.4%
No54.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.3%
Under 2.536.7%

How much we know

Finland U21 history12 matches
Republic of Ireland U21 history9 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 16:15 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (70.4%). Picks in that band won 76.0% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 601 matches.

Why Finland U21 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Finland U21 are rated 38 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,547 against 1,509. On rating alone Finland U21 would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Finland U21 score far more

    2.92 goals a game over 12 matches for Finland U21, against 1.00 over 9 for Republic of Ireland U21.

  • Finland U21 concede fewer

    Finland U21 concede 0.75 a game, Republic of Ireland U21 1.33.

  • Finland U21 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    67% of Finland U21 matches, against 44% for Republic of Ireland U21. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 9 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Finland U21
Republic of Ireland U21@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1546.9
ELO
1509.3
12
ELO · Matches
9
1546.9
Current Team ELO
1509.3
1509.3
Current Opponent ELO
1546.9
37.63
Current ELO Difference
-37.63
0.55
Expected score
0.45
12
History Matches
9
0.20
Residual Mean
0.04
57.32
Overperformance
51.27
0.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.20
3.20
Goals for per game
0.80
0.20
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
9
2.30
PPG
1.44
3.30
Goals for per game
1.00
0.50
Goals against per game
1.33
70.0%
Win rate
33.3%
3.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
2.45
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.82
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.33
0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.25
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.97
2.86
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.56
Overall performance9 signals
90
12
Matches
9
2.00
PPG
1.44
58.3%
Win rate
33.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
44.4%
16.7%
Loss rate
22.2%
91.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
3.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
Venue performance10 signals
100
6
Matches
5
1.83
PPG
1.40
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
20.0%
16.7%
Loss rate
40.0%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
6
History Matches
5
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.92
Goals for per game
1.00
83.3%
Scoring rate
66.7%
33.3%
BTTS rate
44.4%
2.33
Goals for per game
1.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
60.0%
16.7%
BTTS rate
40.0%
3.71
Goals for per game
1.00
85.7%
Scoring rate
71.4%
14.3%
BTTS rate
42.9%
12
History Matches
9
2.92
Goals Mean
1.00
2.43
Goals Std
0.82
83.3%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
75.0%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
41.7%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
2.33
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.75
Goals against per game
1.33
41.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.80
33.3%
Conceding rate
80.0%
0.29
Goals against per game
1.43
14.3%
Conceding rate
71.4%
12
History Matches
9
0.75
Conceded Mean
1.33
0.92
Conceded Std
1.25
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.4%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.1%
0.67
Venue Conceded Mean
1.80
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
58.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
85.7%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
58.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
58.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
12
History Matches
9
0.87
Result entropy
0.97
3.00
Goal Difference Std
1.56
12.65
Stability score
3.44
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
12
Eligible Matches
9
7
Lead Matches
0
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.90
Lead Points Retention
—
2
Trailing Matches
2
50.0%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
12
Halftime Coverage Matches
9
1.25
First Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
1.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
158.0
Rest days
157.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
4
Normal Rest History Matches
3
2.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
5
Long Rest History Matches
4
2.40
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.75
Competition & season17 signals
170
7
Matches
7
2.29
PPG
1.57
71.4%
Win rate
42.9%
14.3%
Draw rate
28.6%
14.3%
Loss rate
28.6%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
3.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
7
Current Competition Matches
7
2.29
Current Competition PPG
1.57
3.43
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.43
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.81
Portability PPG Std
—
1.62
Portability PPG Range
—
38.18
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
12
Clean History Matches
9
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO37.63
PPG0.56
GF1.92
GA-0.58
PPG0.71
PPG0.43
PPG1.40
PPG0.86
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate25.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate46.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches3
Goals Mean1.92
Goals Std1.61
Scored 1+ rate16.7%
Scored 2+ rate41.7%
Scored 3+ rate41.7%
Venue Goals Mean1.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean2.30
Recent 10 Goals Std1.64
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.58
Conceded Std-0.32
Clean-sheet rate25.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-1.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.44
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std1.43
Stability score9.22
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.29
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches7
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.81
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.53
Second Half Goals For Mean1.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.71
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.86
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days0.95
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.50
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match1.65
Current Team ELO37.63
Current Opponent ELO-37.63
Current ELO Difference75.26
Expected score0.11
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.15
Overperformance6.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Finland U21

D
Kosovo U214–4Finland U216 Oct · away
Pick: Finland U21 72% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Republic of Ireland U21

W
Republic of Ireland U213–1England U216 Oct · home
Pick: England U21 60% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Finland U21 and Republic of Ireland U21 meet in UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 16:15 UTC. The match is played at Tammelan Stadion, Tampere. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Finland U21 win 70.4%, draw 20.3%, Republic of Ireland U21 win 9.4%. The pick is Finland U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.3%. Both teams to score: 45.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.