ScoreProb
UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification World Play-offs 2027

Turkey U21 vs Czech Republic U21

Turkey U21 Home · Elo 1,532
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
Czech Republic U21 Away · Elo 1,504
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Turkey U21 win
Turkey U21 winPick
43.6%
Draw
21.8%
Czech Republic U21 win
34.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.1%
No51.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.3%
Under 2.554.7%

How much we know

Turkey U21 history8 matches
Czech Republic U21 history11 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,387 matches.

Why Turkey U21 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Turkey U21 are rated 28 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,532 against 1,504. On rating alone Turkey U21 would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Czech Republic U21 score far more

    1.13 goals a game over 8 matches for Turkey U21, against 1.91 over 11 for Czech Republic U21.

  • Turkey U21 concede fewer

    Turkey U21 concede 0.75 a game, Czech Republic U21 1.09.

  • Czech Republic U21 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    25% of Turkey U21 matches, against 64% for Czech Republic U21. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 4 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Turkey U21
Czech Republic U21@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1532.2
ELO
1504.3
8
ELO · Matches
11
1532.2
Current Team ELO
1504.3
1504.3
Current Opponent ELO
1532.2
27.82
Current ELO Difference
-27.82
0.54
Expected score
0.46
8
History Matches
11
0.22
Residual Mean
0.04
56.38
Overperformance
51.58
0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
8
Matches
10
2.13
PPG
1.70
1.13
Goals for per game
2.00
0.75
Goals against per game
0.90
62.5%
Win rate
50.0%
1.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.67
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.97
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.30
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.30
Overall performance9 signals
90
8
Matches
11
2.13
PPG
1.55
62.5%
Win rate
45.5%
25.0%
Draw rate
18.2%
12.5%
Loss rate
36.4%
62.5%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.37
Venue performance10 signals
100
5
Matches
4
2.60
PPG
1.75
80.0%
Win rate
50.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
40.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.12
5
History Matches
4
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.13
Goals for per game
1.91
87.5%
Scoring rate
81.8%
37.5%
BTTS rate
45.5%
1.20
Goals for per game
1.25
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
20.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.17
Goals for per game
2.14
83.3%
Scoring rate
71.4%
50.0%
BTTS rate
28.6%
8
History Matches
11
1.13
Goals Mean
1.91
0.60
Goals Std
1.62
87.5%
Scored 1+ rate
81.8%
25.0%
Scored 2+ rate
54.5%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
18.2%
1.20
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.75
Goals against per game
1.09
50.0%
Conceding rate
45.5%
0.20
Goals against per game
0.75
20.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.43
66.7%
Conceding rate
28.6%
8
History Matches
11
0.75
Conceded Mean
1.09
0.97
Conceded Std
1.38
12.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.4%
12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.2%
0.20
Venue Conceded Mean
0.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
54.5%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
80.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
71.4%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
54.5%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
80.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
54.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
8
History Matches
11
0.82
Result entropy
0.94
1.41
Goal Difference Std
2.37
18.06
Stability score
5.68
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
8
Eligible Matches
11
3
Lead Matches
3
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
1
Trailing Matches
3
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
8
Halftime Coverage Matches
11
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.36
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
163.0
Rest days
227.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
2
Normal Rest History Matches
4
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.75
5
Long Rest History Matches
4
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.75
Competition & season17 signals
170
6
Matches
7
1.83
PPG
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
57.1%
33.3%
Draw rate
28.6%
16.7%
Loss rate
14.3%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.25
6
Current Competition Matches
7
1.83
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.17
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.71
3
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.50
—
Portability PPG Range
1.00
—
Portability Score
50.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
8
Clean History Matches
11
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO27.82
PPG0.58
GF-0.78
GA-0.34
PPG-0.17
PPG0.85
PPG1.00
PPG0.43
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate30.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.78
Goals Std-1.02
Scored 1+ rate5.7%
Scored 2+ rate-0.30
Scored 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Goals Mean-0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.88
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.07
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.34
Conceded Std-0.41
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate-0.24
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.55
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.15
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.33
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.12
Goal Difference Std-0.96
Stability score12.37
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.89
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.30
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.17
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.55
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days-64.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.25
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.25
Current Team ELO27.82
Current Opponent ELO-27.82
Current ELO Difference55.64
Expected score0.08
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.18
Overperformance4.80
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Turkey U21

D
Turkey U210–0Hungary U216 Oct · home
Pick: Turkey U21 60% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Czech Republic U21

L
Portugal U212–0Czech Republic U216 Oct · away
Pick: Portugal U21 77% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Turkey U21 and Czech Republic U21 meet in UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Turkey U21 win 43.6%, draw 21.8%, Czech Republic U21 win 34.6%. The pick is Turkey U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.3%. Both teams to score: 48.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.