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Segunda División Peru Quarter-finals 2026

Deportiva Agropecuaria vs Carlos A. Mannucci

Deportiva Agropecuaria Home · Elo 1,477
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Carlos A. Mannucci Away · Elo 1,506
Estadio Victor Montoya Segura, Jaen Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Deportiva Agropecuaria win
Deportiva Agropecuaria winPick
35.9%
Draw
30.3%
Carlos A. Mannucci win
33.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.8%
No54.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.6%
Under 2.556.4%

How much we know

Deportiva Agropecuaria history35 matches
Carlos A. Mannucci history36 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 20:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.9%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Deportiva Agropecuaria are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Carlos A. Mannucci are rated 29 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,506 against 1,477. On rating alone Carlos A. Mannucci would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Carlos A. Mannucci score more

    0.97 goals a game over 35 matches for Deportiva Agropecuaria, against 1.36 over 36 for Carlos A. Mannucci.

  • Deportiva Agropecuaria concede fewer

    Deportiva Agropecuaria concede 1.11 a game, Carlos A. Mannucci 1.33.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    34% of Deportiva Agropecuaria matches, against 42% for Carlos A. Mannucci. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Deportiva Agropecuaria
Carlos A. Mannucci@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1477.2
ELO
1506.0
35
ELO · Matches
36
1477.2
Current Team ELO
1506.0
1506.0
Current Opponent ELO
1477.2
-28.84
Current ELO Difference
28.84
0.46
Expected score
0.54
35
History Matches
36
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.01
47.75
Overperformance
50.53
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.40
0.80
Goals for per game
0.60
1.20
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.70
0.80
Goals for per game
1.10
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.27
Overall performance9 signals
90
35
Matches
36
1.20
PPG
1.39
25.7%
Win rate
38.9%
42.9%
Draw rate
22.2%
31.4%
Loss rate
38.9%
65.7%
Over 1.5 rate
63.9%
34.3%
Over 2.5 rate
41.7%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
18
1.47
PPG
0.94
29.4%
Win rate
22.2%
58.8%
Draw rate
27.8%
11.8%
Loss rate
50.0%
64.7%
Over 1.5 rate
72.2%
29.4%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
17.6%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
17
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.97
Goals for per game
1.36
71.4%
Scoring rate
66.7%
54.3%
BTTS rate
47.2%
1.12
Goals for per game
1.11
76.5%
Scoring rate
61.1%
52.9%
BTTS rate
50.0%
0.75
Goals for per game
0.83
50.0%
Scoring rate
41.7%
41.7%
BTTS rate
16.7%
35
History Matches
36
0.97
Goals Mean
1.36
0.81
Goals Std
1.38
71.4%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
20.0%
Scored 2+ rate
36.1%
5.7%
Scored 3+ rate
19.4%
1.12
Venue Goals Mean
1.11
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.11
Goals against per game
1.33
65.7%
Conceding rate
72.2%
0.76
Goals against per game
1.72
52.9%
Conceding rate
77.8%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.83
66.7%
Conceding rate
50.0%
35
History Matches
36
1.11
Conceded Mean
1.33
1.09
Conceded Std
1.27
31.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.1%
8.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.7%
0.76
Venue Conceded Mean
1.72
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
47.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
38.9%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
58.3%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
47.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
38.9%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
35
History Matches
36
0.98
Result entropy
0.97
1.27
Goal Difference Std
1.76
2.05
Stability score
2.71
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
35
Eligible Matches
36
8
Lead Matches
13
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.79
9
Trailing Matches
7
44.4%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
35
Halftime Coverage Matches
36
0.31
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
90.19
Rest days
83.01
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
13
Normal Rest History Matches
12
1.08
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.58
21
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.19
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.74
Competition & season17 signals
170
12
Matches
12
1.00
PPG
1.50
16.7%
Win rate
41.7%
50.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
8.3%
1.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
12
Current Competition Matches
12
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
3
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.15
Portability PPG Std
0.20
0.33
Portability PPG Range
0.50
76.94
Portability Score
71.01
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
35
Clean History Matches
36
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-28.84
PPG-0.19
GF-0.39
GA-0.22
PPG-0.50
PPG0.53
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate6.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate24.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.39
Goals Std-0.57
Scored 1+ rate4.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean0.01
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.16
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.22
Conceded Std-0.18
Clean-sheet rate6.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.96
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.58
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.49
Stability score-0.67
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.29
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate30.2%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.25
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.17
Portability Score5.93
Rest days7.18
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.49
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.55
Current Team ELO-28.84
Current Opponent ELO28.84
Current ELO Difference-57.68
Expected score-0.08
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Deportiva Agropecuaria

W
Deportiva Agropecuaria5–1Sport Huancayo 231 Oct · home
Pick: Deportiva Agropecuaria 44% · hit
D
Deportivo Llacuabamba1–1Deportiva Agropecuaria24 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo Llacuabamba 52% · missed
L
Deportiva Agropecuaria0–1Comerciantes18 Oct · home
Pick: Comerciantes 37% · hit
W
Sport Huancayo 20–1Deportiva Agropecuaria7 Oct · away
Pick: Sport Huancayo 2 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Carlos A. Mannucci

D
Carlos A. Mannucci2–2Bentín Tacna Heroica31 Oct · home
Pick: Carlos A. Mannucci 40% · missed
W
U. San Martin1–2Carlos A. Mannucci25 Oct · away
Pick: U. San Martin 44% · missed
W
Carlos A. Mannucci3–1Alianza Universidad13 Oct · home
Pick: Carlos A. Mannucci 45% · hit
D
Bentín Tacna Heroica0–0Carlos A. Mannucci8 Oct · away
Pick: Bentín Tacna Heroica 54% · missed
W
Carlos A. Mannucci2–0Academia Cantolao29 Aug · home
Pick: Carlos A. Mannucci 64% · hit

About this match

Deportiva Agropecuaria and Carlos A. Mannucci meet in Segunda División on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 20:30 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Victor Montoya Segura, Jaen. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Deportiva Agropecuaria win 35.9%, draw 30.3%, Carlos A. Mannucci win 33.8%. The pick is Deportiva Agropecuaria win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.6%. Both teams to score: 45.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.