ScoreProb
Primera C Argentina Quarter-finals 2026

Deportivo Español vs Estrella Del Sur

Deportivo Español Home · Elo 1,537
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Estrella Del Sur Away · Elo 1,534
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Deportivo Español win
Deportivo Español winPick
43.0%
Draw
35.4%
Estrella Del Sur win
21.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes36.1%
No63.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.530.9%
Under 2.569.1%

How much we know

Deportivo Español history57 matches
Estrella Del Sur history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Deportivo Español are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,537 against 1,534. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Estrella Del Sur score more

    0.77 goals a game over 57 matches for Deportivo Español, against 1.08 over 51 for Estrella Del Sur.

  • Deportivo Español concede fewer

    Deportivo Español concede 0.60 a game, Estrella Del Sur 0.92.

  • Estrella Del Sur games more often go over 2.5 goals

    19% of Deportivo Español matches, against 33% for Estrella Del Sur. The model puts this match at 31% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Deportivo Español
Estrella Del Sur
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1536.9
ELO
1534.4
57
ELO · Matches
51
1536.9
Current Team ELO
1534.4
1534.4
Current Opponent ELO
1536.9
2.48
Current ELO Difference
-2.48
0.50
Expected score
0.50
57
History Matches
51
0.04
Residual Mean
0.03
52.99
Overperformance
51.91
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
0.20
Goals for per game
0.80
0.00
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.60
0.60
Goals for per game
1.10
0.30
Goals against per game
0.90
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
0.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.83
Overall performance9 signals
90
57
Matches
51
1.44
PPG
1.57
33.3%
Win rate
41.2%
43.9%
Draw rate
33.3%
22.8%
Loss rate
25.5%
45.6%
Over 1.5 rate
62.7%
19.3%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
1.8%
Over 3.5 rate
13.7%
1.23
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
27
1.65
PPG
1.44
41.9%
Win rate
37.0%
38.7%
Draw rate
33.3%
19.4%
Loss rate
29.6%
41.9%
Over 1.5 rate
70.4%
22.6%
Over 2.5 rate
40.7%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
18.5%
1.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
31
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.77
Goals for per game
1.08
54.4%
Scoring rate
62.7%
26.3%
BTTS rate
41.2%
0.87
Goals for per game
1.19
58.1%
Scoring rate
59.3%
22.6%
BTTS rate
48.1%
0.63
Goals for per game
1.04
54.2%
Scoring rate
60.0%
29.2%
BTTS rate
32.0%
57
History Matches
51
0.77
Goals Mean
1.08
0.86
Goals Std
1.06
54.4%
Scored 1+ rate
62.7%
17.5%
Scored 2+ rate
31.4%
5.3%
Scored 3+ rate
11.8%
0.87
Venue Goals Mean
1.19
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.60
Goals against per game
0.92
42.1%
Conceding rate
58.8%
0.45
Goals against per game
1.07
32.3%
Conceding rate
70.4%
0.42
Goals against per game
0.92
37.5%
Conceding rate
56.0%
57
History Matches
51
0.60
Conceded Mean
0.92
0.81
Conceded Std
0.95
14.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.5%
3.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.8%
0.45
Venue Conceded Mean
1.07
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
57.9%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
45.6%
Failed-to-score rate
37.3%
67.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
41.9%
Failed-to-score rate
40.7%
62.5%
Clean-sheet rate
44.0%
45.8%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
57.9%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
45.6%
Failed-to-score rate
37.3%
67.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
41.9%
Failed-to-score rate
40.7%
57.9%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
57
History Matches
51
0.97
Result entropy
0.98
1.23
Goal Difference Std
1.35
3.08
Stability score
1.70
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
51
13
Lead Matches
12
69.2%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.72
8
Trailing Matches
7
50.0%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.35
First Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.35
0.42
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.35
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.00
Rest days
76.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
29
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.31
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.59
26
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.65
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.61
Competition & season17 signals
170
24
Matches
25
1.46
PPG
1.52
29.2%
Win rate
40.0%
58.3%
Draw rate
32.0%
12.5%
Loss rate
28.0%
33.3%
Over 1.5 rate
64.0%
8.3%
Over 2.5 rate
28.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
12.0%
0.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
24
Current Competition Matches
25
1.46
Current Competition PPG
1.52
0.21
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.12
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.01
Portability PPG Std
0.05
0.01
Portability PPG Range
0.10
98.97
Portability Score
91.29
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
57
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO2.48
PPG-0.13
GF-0.31
GA-0.33
PPG-0.06
PPG0.20
PPG0.00
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate16.7%
Failed-to-score rate8.4%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate38.1%
Failed-to-score rate1.2%
History Matches6
Goals Mean-0.31
Goals Std-0.20
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.47
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.33
Conceded Std-0.13
Clean-sheet rate16.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.62
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.37
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.12
Stability score1.38
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.19
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate2.6%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate21.4%
Trailing Win Rate12.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.06
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.09
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.04
Portability PPG Range-0.08
Portability Score7.68
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.28
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.05
Current Team ELO2.48
Current Opponent ELO-2.48
Current ELO Difference4.97
Expected score0.01
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance1.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Deportivo Español

D
Deportivo Español0–0Victoriano Arenas25 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo Español 44% · missed
W
Deportivo Español1–0Central Cordoba12 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 38% · missed
D
Claypole1–1Deportivo Español6 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 35% · hit
W
Sportivo Barracas0–1Deportivo Español31 Aug · away
Pick: Sportivo Barracas 40% · missed
D
Deportivo Español0–0Lujan24 Aug · home
Pick: Draw 35% · hit

Estrella Del Sur

W
Estrella Del Sur1–0General Lamadrid25 Oct · home
Pick: Estrella Del Sur 44% · hit
W
Estrella Del Sur2–1Juventud Unida12 Oct · home
Pick: Estrella Del Sur 40% · hit
D
Sacachispas0–0Estrella Del Sur4 Oct · away
Pick: Sacachispas 45% · missed
L
Centro Español2–0Estrella Del Sur24 Aug · away
Pick: Centro Español 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Deportivo Español and Estrella Del Sur meet in Primera C on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Deportivo Español win 43.0%, draw 35.4%, Estrella Del Sur win 21.6%. The pick is Deportivo Español win. Over 2.5 goals: 30.9%. Both teams to score: 36.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.