ScoreProb
Primera C Argentina Quarter-finals 2026

Leones de Rosario vs Sportivo Barracas

Leones de Rosario Home · Elo 1,512
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sportivo Barracas Away · Elo 1,510
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Draw
Leones de Rosario win
37.3%
DrawPick
39.0%
Sportivo Barracas win
23.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes43.4%
No56.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.534.6%
Under 2.565.4%

How much we know

Leones de Rosario history25 matches
Sportivo Barracas history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.0%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why a draw is the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,512 against 1,510. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Sportivo Barracas score more

    0.96 goals a game over 25 matches for Leones de Rosario, against 1.19 over 57 for Sportivo Barracas.

  • Defences are close

    Leones de Rosario concede 0.88 a game, Sportivo Barracas 0.89.

  • Sportivo Barracas games more often go over 2.5 goals

    24% of Leones de Rosario matches, against 33% for Sportivo Barracas. The model puts this match at 35% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Leones de Rosario
Sportivo Barracas
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1512.4
ELO
1509.5
25
ELO · Matches
57
1512.4
Current Team ELO
1509.5
1509.5
Current Opponent ELO
1512.4
2.83
Current ELO Difference
-2.83
0.50
Expected score
0.50
25
History Matches
57
0.03
Residual Mean
0.01
51.55
Overperformance
50.87
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
0.60
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.50
0.70
Goals for per game
1.60
0.70
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.80
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.47
Overall performance9 signals
90
25
Matches
57
1.48
PPG
1.51
36.0%
Win rate
42.1%
40.0%
Draw rate
24.6%
24.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
59.6%
24.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
12.0%
Over 3.5 rate
19.3%
1.23
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
Venue performance10 signals
100
13
Matches
27
1.54
PPG
1.33
38.5%
Win rate
37.0%
38.5%
Draw rate
22.2%
23.1%
Loss rate
40.7%
69.2%
Over 1.5 rate
63.0%
30.8%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
15.4%
Over 3.5 rate
18.5%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.40
13
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.96
Goals for per game
1.19
64.0%
Scoring rate
68.4%
40.0%
BTTS rate
35.1%
1.08
Goals for per game
1.07
69.2%
Scoring rate
70.4%
46.2%
BTTS rate
44.4%
0.96
Goals for per game
1.17
64.0%
Scoring rate
69.6%
40.0%
BTTS rate
30.4%
25
History Matches
57
0.96
Goals Mean
1.19
0.82
Goals Std
1.05
64.0%
Scored 1+ rate
68.4%
32.0%
Scored 2+ rate
36.8%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
12.3%
1.08
Venue Goals Mean
1.07
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.88
Goals against per game
0.89
56.0%
Conceding rate
54.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.04
61.5%
Conceding rate
66.7%
0.88
Goals against per game
1.00
56.0%
Conceding rate
47.8%
25
History Matches
57
0.88
Conceded Mean
0.89
1.03
Conceded Std
0.97
20.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.1%
8.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.0%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.04
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
45.6%
36.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
52.2%
36.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
45.6%
36.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
45.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
25
History Matches
57
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
1.23
Goal Difference Std
1.39
1.98
Stability score
2.13
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
25
Eligible Matches
57
6
Lead Matches
12
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.83
8
Trailing Matches
11
50.0%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
25
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
0.44
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.00
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
15
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.47
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.26
8
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.71
Competition & season17 signals
170
25
Matches
23
1.48
PPG
1.43
36.0%
Win rate
43.5%
40.0%
Draw rate
13.0%
24.0%
Loss rate
43.5%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
65.2%
24.0%
Over 2.5 rate
34.8%
12.0%
Over 3.5 rate
17.4%
1.23
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
25
Current Competition Matches
23
1.48
Current Competition PPG
1.43
0.08
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.17
1
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.09
—
Portability PPG Range
0.17
—
Portability Score
85.38
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
25
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO2.83
PPG-0.03
GF-0.23
GA-0.01
PPG0.05
PPG0.21
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-32
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate4.4%
History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate5.1%
Failed-to-score rate1.1%
History Matches-32
Goals Mean-0.23
Goals Std-0.23
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.02
History Matches-32
Conceded Mean-0.01
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate1.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.56
History Matches-32
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.16
Stability score-0.14
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.37
Eligible Matches-32
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate31.8%
Trailing Win Rate12.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-32
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches2
Current Competition PPG0.05
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.09
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days-2.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-16
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.21
Long Rest History Matches-16
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Current Team ELO2.83
Current Opponent ELO-2.83
Current ELO Difference5.67
Expected score0.01
History Matches-32
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance0.68
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Leones de Rosario

L
Sportivo Barracas4–1Leones de Rosario2 Nov · away
Pick: Sportivo Barracas 49% · hit
W
Leones de Rosario2–1Fénix12 Oct · home
Pick: Leones de Rosario 47% · hit
W
Sportivo Barracas0–2Leones de Rosario5 Oct · away
Pick: Sportivo Barracas 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sportivo Barracas

W
Sportivo Barracas4–1Leones de Rosario2 Nov · home
Pick: Sportivo Barracas 49% · hit
D
Sportivo Barracas0–0Sacachispas19 Oct · home
Pick: Sportivo Barracas 40% · missed
D
General Lamadrid0–0Sportivo Barracas12 Oct · away
Pick: General Lamadrid 37% · missed
L
Sportivo Barracas0–2Leones de Rosario5 Oct · home
Pick: Sportivo Barracas 49% · missed
L
Sportivo Barracas0–1Deportivo Español31 Aug · home
Pick: Sportivo Barracas 40% · missed

About this match

Leones de Rosario and Sportivo Barracas meet in Primera C on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Leones de Rosario win 37.3%, draw 39.0%, Sportivo Barracas win 23.7%. The pick is a draw. Over 2.5 goals: 34.6%. Both teams to score: 43.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.