ScoreProb
Primera División Venezuela Round 5 2026

Deportivo La Guaira vs Carabobo FC

Deportivo La Guaira Home · Elo 1,607
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Carabobo FC Away · Elo 1,567
Estadio Olimpico de la UCV, Caracas Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Deportivo La Guaira win
Deportivo La Guaira winPick
40.8%
Draw
30.2%
Carabobo FC win
29.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.2%
No52.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.0%
Under 2.553.0%

How much we know

Deportivo La Guaira history52 matches
Carabobo FC history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 14 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 23:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.8%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,228 matches.

Why Deportivo La Guaira are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Deportivo La Guaira are rated 40 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,607 against 1,567. On rating alone Deportivo La Guaira would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Deportivo La Guaira score more

    1.58 goals a game over 52 matches for Deportivo La Guaira, against 1.35 over 68 for Carabobo FC.

  • Defences are close

    Deportivo La Guaira concede 0.92 a game, Carabobo FC 0.90.

  • Deportivo La Guaira games more often go over 2.5 goals

    44% of Deportivo La Guaira matches, against 32% for Carabobo FC. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Deportivo La Guaira
Carabobo FC@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1607.4
ELO
1567.5
52
ELO · Matches
68
1607.4
Current Team ELO
1567.5
1567.5
Current Opponent ELO
1607.4
39.99
Current ELO Difference
-39.99
0.56
Expected score
0.44
52
History Matches
68
0.09
Residual Mean
0.06
56.53
Overperformance
54.34
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.40
3.00
Goals for per game
0.80
1.20
Goals against per game
0.60
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.70
2.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.50
Goals against per game
0.80
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.73
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.60
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.69
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
68
1.90
PPG
1.66
53.8%
Win rate
45.6%
28.8%
Draw rate
29.4%
17.3%
Loss rate
25.0%
73.1%
Over 1.5 rate
60.3%
44.2%
Over 2.5 rate
32.4%
26.9%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
31
1.87
PPG
1.29
52.2%
Win rate
32.3%
30.4%
Draw rate
32.3%
17.4%
Loss rate
35.5%
73.9%
Over 1.5 rate
67.7%
39.1%
Over 2.5 rate
29.0%
34.8%
Over 3.5 rate
22.6%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
23
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.58
Goals for per game
1.35
84.6%
Scoring rate
70.6%
55.8%
BTTS rate
39.7%
1.78
Goals for per game
1.10
78.3%
Scoring rate
61.3%
43.5%
BTTS rate
45.2%
1.58
Goals for per game
1.65
84.2%
Scoring rate
78.3%
52.6%
BTTS rate
52.2%
52
History Matches
68
1.58
Goals Mean
1.35
1.25
Goals Std
1.42
84.6%
Scored 1+ rate
70.6%
42.3%
Scored 2+ rate
32.4%
17.3%
Scored 3+ rate
14.7%
1.78
Venue Goals Mean
1.10
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.92
Goals against per game
0.90
61.5%
Conceding rate
55.9%
0.83
Goals against per game
1.06
52.2%
Conceding rate
71.0%
0.74
Goals against per game
0.96
57.9%
Conceding rate
60.9%
52
History Matches
68
0.92
Conceded Mean
0.90
0.98
Conceded Std
1.02
21.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.5%
5.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.4%
0.83
Venue Conceded Mean
1.06
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
44.1%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
47.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.0%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
38.7%
42.1%
Clean-sheet rate
39.1%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
44.1%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
47.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.0%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
38.7%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
44.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
68
0.91
Result entropy
0.97
1.59
Goal Difference Std
1.69
9.38
Stability score
3.09
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
68
21
Lead Matches
19
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
94.7%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.96
8
Trailing Matches
11
25.0%
Non-loss rate
9.1%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.77
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.17
Rest days
79.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
9
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
20
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.75
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.55
25
Long Rest History Matches
20
2.28
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.95
Competition & season17 signals
170
19
Matches
23
1.95
PPG
1.65
52.6%
Win rate
43.5%
36.8%
Draw rate
34.8%
10.5%
Loss rate
21.7%
73.7%
Over 1.5 rate
65.2%
31.6%
Over 2.5 rate
34.8%
15.8%
Over 3.5 rate
26.1%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
19
Current Competition Matches
23
1.95
Current Competition PPG
1.65
0.84
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.70
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.77
Portability PPG Std
0.77
1.90
Portability PPG Range
2.20
39.36
Portability Score
39.49
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO39.99
PPG0.24
GF0.22
GA0.03
PPG0.30
PPG0.58
PPG1.00
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate18.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-16
Goals Mean0.22
Goals Std-0.18
Scored 1+ rate14.0%
Scored 2+ rate10.0%
Scored 3+ rate2.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.69
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.30
History Matches-16
Conceded Mean0.03
Conceded Std-0.04
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.60
History Matches-16
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.10
Stability score6.29
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.56
Eligible Matches-16
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.23
Lead Points Retention-0.16
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate15.9%
Trailing Win Rate12.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-16
First Half Goals For Mean0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches-4
Current Competition PPG0.30
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.15
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range-0.30
Portability Score-0.13
Rest days-0.85
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Normal Rest History Matches-18
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.20
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.33
Current Team ELO39.99
Current Opponent ELO-39.99
Current ELO Difference79.99
Expected score0.11
History Matches-16
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Deportivo La Guaira

W
Portuguesa FC0–3Deportivo La Guaira4 Nov · away
Pick: Deportivo La Guaira 42% · hit
D
Deportivo La Guaira2–2Metropolitanos FC25 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo La Guaira 63% · missed
W
Deportivo La Guaira3–0Aragua FC21 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo La Guaira 52% · hit
L
Deportivo La Guaira1–2Trujillanos FC17 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo La Guaira 62% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Carabobo FC

W
Metropolitanos FC0–2Carabobo FC4 Nov · away
Pick: Carabobo FC 41% · hit
D
Carabobo FC1–1Metropolitanos FC1 Nov · home
Pick: Carabobo FC 56% · missed
W
Portuguesa FC1–3Carabobo FC25 Oct · away
Pick: Carabobo FC 37% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Deportivo La Guaira and Carabobo FC meet in Primera División on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 23:30 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Olimpico de la UCV, Caracas. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Deportivo La Guaira win 40.8%, draw 30.2%, Carabobo FC win 29.1%. The pick is Deportivo La Guaira win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.0%. Both teams to score: 47.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.