ScoreProb
Primera División Venezuela Round 5 2026

Portuguesa FC vs Metropolitanos FC

Portuguesa FC Home · Elo 1,515
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Metropolitanos FC Away · Elo 1,556
Estadio General Jose Antonio Paez, Araure Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Portuguesa FC win
Portuguesa FC winPick
39.3%
Draw
30.0%
Metropolitanos FC win
30.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.7%
No47.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.3%
Under 2.551.7%

How much we know

Portuguesa FC history43 matches
Metropolitanos FC history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 21:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,668 matches.

Why Portuguesa FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Metropolitanos FC are rated 41 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,556 against 1,515. On rating alone Metropolitanos FC would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Metropolitanos FC score more

    1.14 goals a game over 43 matches for Portuguesa FC, against 1.39 over 46 for Metropolitanos FC.

  • Defences are close

    Portuguesa FC concede 1.30 a game, Metropolitanos FC 1.37.

  • Metropolitanos FC games more often go over 2.5 goals

    42% of Portuguesa FC matches, against 50% for Metropolitanos FC. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Portuguesa FC
Metropolitanos FC@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1515.5
ELO
1556.3
43
ELO · Matches
46
1515.5
Current Team ELO
1556.3
1556.3
Current Opponent ELO
1515.5
-40.81
Current ELO Difference
40.81
0.44
Expected score
0.56
43
History Matches
46
0.01
Residual Mean
0.07
50.67
Overperformance
54.61
0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.40
1.20
Goals for per game
1.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.90
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.10
Goals against per game
1.20
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.33
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.72
Overall performance9 signals
90
43
Matches
46
1.21
PPG
1.43
30.2%
Win rate
37.0%
30.2%
Draw rate
32.6%
39.5%
Loss rate
30.4%
67.4%
Over 1.5 rate
73.9%
41.9%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.6%
Over 3.5 rate
34.8%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
Venue performance10 signals
100
19
Matches
22
1.58
PPG
1.36
47.4%
Win rate
31.8%
15.8%
Draw rate
40.9%
36.8%
Loss rate
27.3%
52.6%
Over 1.5 rate
59.1%
26.3%
Over 2.5 rate
27.3%
10.5%
Over 3.5 rate
18.2%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.10
19
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.14
Goals for per game
1.39
69.8%
Scoring rate
80.4%
46.5%
BTTS rate
65.2%
1.11
Goals for per game
0.95
68.4%
Scoring rate
72.7%
21.1%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.53
Goals for per game
1.40
78.9%
Scoring rate
85.0%
42.1%
BTTS rate
55.0%
43
History Matches
46
1.14
Goals Mean
1.39
1.07
Goals Std
1.05
69.8%
Scored 1+ rate
80.4%
27.9%
Scored 2+ rate
43.5%
11.6%
Scored 3+ rate
8.7%
1.11
Venue Goals Mean
0.95
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.30
Goals against per game
1.37
67.4%
Conceding rate
78.3%
0.74
Goals against per game
1.09
47.4%
Conceding rate
68.2%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.05
52.6%
Conceding rate
65.0%
43
History Matches
46
1.30
Conceded Mean
1.37
1.27
Conceded Std
1.13
39.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.0%
14.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.2%
0.74
Venue Conceded Mean
1.09
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.6%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
30.2%
Failed-to-score rate
19.6%
52.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
47.4%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
15.0%
32.6%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
30.2%
Failed-to-score rate
19.6%
52.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
32.6%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
43
History Matches
46
0.99
Result entropy
1.00
1.67
Goal Difference Std
1.42
0.77
Stability score
0.30
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
43
Eligible Matches
46
13
Lead Matches
12
61.5%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.83
14
Trailing Matches
10
21.4%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.33
Rest days
77.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
21
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.29
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.32
21
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.48
Competition & season17 signals
170
19
Matches
20
1.68
PPG
1.90
47.4%
Win rate
55.0%
26.3%
Draw rate
25.0%
26.3%
Loss rate
20.0%
63.2%
Over 1.5 rate
65.0%
47.4%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
26.3%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
19
Current Competition Matches
20
1.68
Current Competition PPG
1.90
0.53
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.35
3
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.39
1.02
Portability PPG Range
0.78
53.10
Portability Score
56.34
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
43
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-40.81
PPG-0.23
GF-0.25
GA-0.07
PPG-0.22
PPG0.22
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate10.8%
Failed-to-score rate10.7%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate20.8%
Failed-to-score rate4.3%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.25
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate2.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.33
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.07
Conceded Std0.14
Clean-sheet rate10.8%
Conceded 2+ rate2.6%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.35
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.28
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.25
Stability score0.47
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.68
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.22
Lead Points Retention-0.14
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.29
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.22
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.18
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range0.24
Portability Score-3.24
Rest days-0.65
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.03
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.43
Current Team ELO-40.81
Current Opponent ELO40.81
Current ELO Difference-81.62
Expected score-0.12
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-3.94
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Portuguesa FC

L
Portuguesa FC0–3Deportivo La Guaira4 Nov · home
Pick: Deportivo La Guaira 42% · hit
D
Metropolitanos FC0–0Portuguesa FC28 Oct · away
Pick: Metropolitanos FC 44% · missed
L
Portuguesa FC1–3Carabobo FC25 Oct · home
Pick: Carabobo FC 37% · hit
L
Portuguesa FC0–2Zamora FC21 Oct · home
Pick: Portuguesa FC 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Metropolitanos FC

L
Metropolitanos FC0–2Carabobo FC4 Nov · home
Pick: Carabobo FC 41% · hit
D
Carabobo FC1–1Metropolitanos FC1 Nov · away
Pick: Carabobo FC 56% · missed
D
Metropolitanos FC0–0Portuguesa FC28 Oct · home
Pick: Metropolitanos FC 44% · missed
D
Deportivo La Guaira2–2Metropolitanos FC25 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo La Guaira 63% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Portuguesa FC and Metropolitanos FC meet in Primera División on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 21:30 UTC. The match is played at Estadio General Jose Antonio Paez, Araure. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Portuguesa FC win 39.3%, draw 30.0%, Metropolitanos FC win 30.7%. The pick is Portuguesa FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.3%. Both teams to score: 52.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.