Deportivo Universitario vs Herrera
Match result probability Model pick: Deportivo Universitario win
Deportivo Universitario winPick
54.1%
Draw
23.8%
Herrera win
22.1%
No match played
If the match is played on a new date, this page updates by itself.
Both teams to score
Yes49.9%
No50.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.551.9%
Under 2.548.1%
How much we know
Deportivo Universitario history37 matches
Herrera history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Kickoff8 Nov · 21:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this match
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The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Deportivo Universitario are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Deportivo Universitario are rated 73 Elo points higher
Elo 1,453 against 1,380. On rating alone Deportivo Universitario would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.
-
Deportivo Universitario score more
1.11 goals a game over 37 matches for Deportivo Universitario, against 0.83 over 48 for Herrera.
-
Deportivo Universitario concede fewer
Deportivo Universitario concede 1.43 a game, Herrera 1.67.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
43% of Deportivo Universitario matches, against 48% for Herrera. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Herrera@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1453.0
ELO
1379.6
37
ELO · Matches
48
1453.0
Current Team ELO
1379.6
1379.6
Current Opponent ELO
1453.0
73.35
Current ELO Difference
-73.35
0.60
Expected score
0.40
37
History Matches
48
-0.10
Residual Mean
-0.11
43.77
Overperformance
41.91
-0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
0.60
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.80
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.34
Overall performance9 signals 90
37
Matches
48
1.03
PPG
0.71
21.6%
Win rate
12.5%
37.8%
Draw rate
33.3%
40.5%
Loss rate
54.2%
70.3%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
43.2%
Over 2.5 rate
47.9%
27.0%
Over 3.5 rate
29.2%
1.23
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
Venue performance10 signals 100
12
Matches
22
0.75
PPG
0.45
8.3%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
45.5%
41.7%
Loss rate
54.5%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
68.2%
41.7%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
40.9%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
12
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.11
Goals for per game
0.83
70.3%
Scoring rate
54.2%
56.8%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.33
Goals for per game
0.73
83.3%
Scoring rate
50.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.21
Goals for per game
0.81
73.7%
Scoring rate
57.1%
63.2%
BTTS rate
52.4%
37
History Matches
48
1.11
Goals Mean
0.83
0.92
Goals Std
0.90
70.3%
Scored 1+ rate
54.2%
32.4%
Scored 2+ rate
25.0%
8.1%
Scored 3+ rate
4.2%
1.33
Venue Goals Mean
0.73
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.43
Goals against per game
1.67
75.7%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.67
Goals against per game
2.00
91.7%
Conceding rate
81.8%
1.63
Goals against per game
2.05
84.2%
Conceding rate
85.7%
37
History Matches
48
1.43
Conceded Mean
1.67
1.22
Conceded Std
1.39
40.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.9%
18.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.7%
1.67
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
29.7%
Failed-to-score rate
45.8%
8.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
15.8%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
29.7%
Failed-to-score rate
45.8%
8.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
37
History Matches
48
0.97
Result entropy
0.87
1.23
Goal Difference Std
1.52
3.07
Stability score
12.78
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
37
Eligible Matches
47
9
Lead Matches
4
44.4%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.59
Lead Points Retention
0.58
10
Trailing Matches
20
10.0%
Non-loss rate
35.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
37
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.28
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
77.00
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
10
Normal Rest History Matches
24
0.40
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.67
25
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.32
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.74
Competition & season17 signals 170
19
Matches
21
0.84
PPG
0.62
15.8%
Win rate
9.5%
36.8%
Draw rate
33.3%
47.4%
Loss rate
57.1%
73.7%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
42.1%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
26.3%
Over 3.5 rate
38.1%
1.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
19
Current Competition Matches
21
0.84
Current Competition PPG
0.62
-0.42
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.24
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.19
Portability PPG Std
0.08
0.38
Portability PPG Range
0.16
72.46
Portability Score
86.30
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
37
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO73.35
PPG0.32
GF0.27
GA-0.23
PPG0.22
PPG0.30
PPG0.00
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate7.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.33
History Matches-11
Goals Mean0.27
Goals Std0.03
Scored 1+ rate16.1%
Scored 2+ rate7.4%
Scored 3+ rate3.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.61
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches-11
Conceded Mean-0.23
Conceded Std-0.17
Clean-sheet rate7.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate2.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.23
History Matches-11
Result entropy0.10
Goal Difference Std-0.29
Stability score-9.71
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.01
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches-10
Non-loss rate-0.25
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
First Half Goals For Mean0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG0.22
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.82
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.11
Portability PPG Range0.22
Portability Score-13.84
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-14
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.27
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.58
Current Team ELO73.35
Current Opponent ELO-73.35
Current ELO Difference146.7
Expected score0.21
History Matches-11
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.86
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Deportivo Universitario
L
Deportivo Universitario0–1Independiente de La Chorrera24 Oct · home
Pick: Independiente de La Chorrera 44% · hit L
Plaza Amador2–1Deportivo Universitario4 Oct · away
Pick: Plaza Amador 72% · hit D
Deportivo Universitario0–0CD Arabe Unido29 Aug · home
Pick: Deportivo Universitario 39% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Herrera
L
Herrera1–3San Francisco FC25 Oct · home
Pick: San Francisco FC 48% · hit W
Herrera1–0Alianza FC4 Oct · home
Pick: Alianza FC 58% · missed L
Sporting San Miguelito3–1Herrera30 Aug · away
Pick: Sporting San Miguelito 70% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Deportivo Universitario and Herrera were due to play in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on Sunday 8 November 2026, but the match was not played.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.