San Francisco FC vs Veraguas
Match result probability Model pick: San Francisco FC win
San Francisco FC winPick
40.1%
Draw
26.5%
Veraguas win
33.4%
No match played
If the match is played on a new date, this page updates by itself.
Both teams to score
Yes53.9%
No46.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.553.0%
Under 2.547.0%
How much we know
San Francisco FC history47 matches
Veraguas history40 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Kickoff8 Nov · 21:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this match
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why San Francisco FC are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,514 against 1,531. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.45 goals a game over 47 matches for San Francisco FC, against 1.38 over 40 for Veraguas.
-
Defences are close
San Francisco FC concede 1.26 a game, Veraguas 1.28.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
53% of San Francisco FC matches, against 48% for Veraguas. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Veraguas@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1514.3
ELO
1530.6
47
ELO · Matches
40
1514.3
Current Team ELO
1530.6
1530.6
Current Opponent ELO
1514.3
-16.30
Current ELO Difference
16.30
0.48
Expected score
0.52
47
History Matches
40
0.02
Residual Mean
0.03
51.41
Overperformance
52.25
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.18
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.80
2.20
Goals for per game
1.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.80
2.00
Goals for per game
1.30
1.60
Goals against per game
0.90
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.34
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.78
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.49
Overall performance9 signals 90
47
Matches
40
1.49
PPG
1.45
40.4%
Win rate
37.5%
27.7%
Draw rate
32.5%
31.9%
Loss rate
30.0%
72.3%
Over 1.5 rate
67.5%
53.2%
Over 2.5 rate
47.5%
25.5%
Over 3.5 rate
32.5%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
Venue performance10 signals 100
25
Matches
21
1.40
PPG
1.24
40.0%
Win rate
33.3%
20.0%
Draw rate
23.8%
40.0%
Loss rate
42.9%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
56.0%
Over 2.5 rate
52.4%
24.0%
Over 3.5 rate
38.1%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
25
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.45
Goals for per game
1.38
76.6%
Scoring rate
72.5%
57.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.48
Goals for per game
1.19
76.0%
Scoring rate
61.9%
56.0%
BTTS rate
42.9%
1.68
Goals for per game
1.55
78.9%
Scoring rate
85.0%
73.7%
BTTS rate
60.0%
47
History Matches
40
1.45
Goals Mean
1.38
1.22
Goals Std
1.20
76.6%
Scored 1+ rate
72.5%
38.3%
Scored 2+ rate
42.5%
23.4%
Scored 3+ rate
15.0%
1.48
Venue Goals Mean
1.19
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.26
Goals against per game
1.28
76.6%
Conceding rate
70.0%
1.32
Goals against per game
1.57
80.0%
Conceding rate
76.2%
1.74
Goals against per game
1.20
94.7%
Conceding rate
70.0%
47
History Matches
40
1.26
Conceded Mean
1.28
0.98
Conceded Std
1.22
36.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.5%
10.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.5%
1.32
Venue Conceded Mean
1.57
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
23.4%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
23.4%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.1%
5.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
15.0%
23.4%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
23.4%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.1%
23.4%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
47
History Matches
40
0.99
Result entropy
1.00
1.50
Goal Difference Std
1.64
1.14
Stability score
0.39
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
47
Eligible Matches
39
14
Lead Matches
14
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
64.3%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.76
11
Trailing Matches
10
27.3%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.81
Rest days
77.81
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
25
Normal Rest History Matches
16
1.44
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
21
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.62
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.48
Competition & season17 signals 170
19
Matches
20
1.37
PPG
1.60
36.8%
Win rate
40.0%
26.3%
Draw rate
40.0%
36.8%
Loss rate
20.0%
78.9%
Over 1.5 rate
65.0%
73.7%
Over 2.5 rate
45.0%
36.8%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
19
Current Competition Matches
20
1.37
Current Competition PPG
1.60
-0.05
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.35
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.10
Portability PPG Std
0.15
0.20
Portability PPG Range
0.30
83.13
Portability Score
76.92
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
47
Clean History Matches
40
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-16.30
PPG0.04
GF0.07
GA-0.02
PPG-0.23
PPG0.16
PPG0.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches7
Goals Mean0.07
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate4.1%
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate8.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.29
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.56
History Matches7
Conceded Mean-0.02
Conceded Std-0.25
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate3.7%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.17
History Matches7
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.14
Stability score0.74
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.13
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate14.3%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate7.3%
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.23
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.40
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.10
Portability Score6.20
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.06
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.14
Current Team ELO-16.30
Current Opponent ELO16.30
Current ELO Difference-32.61
Expected score-0.05
History Matches7
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.84
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
San Francisco FC
W
Herrera1–3San Francisco FC25 Oct · away
Pick: San Francisco FC 48% · hit W
San Francisco FC4–1Plaza Amador30 Aug · home
Pick: Plaza Amador 45% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Veraguas
W
Veraguas3–0Union Cocle27 Oct · home
Pick: Veraguas 49% · hit D
UMECIT1–1Veraguas1 Sep · away
Pick: UMECIT 40% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
San Francisco FC and Veraguas were due to play in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on Sunday 8 November 2026, but the match was not played.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.