Union Cocle vs Independiente de La Chorrera
Match result probability Model pick: Independiente de La Chorrera win
Union Cocle win
33.4%
Draw
28.4%
Independiente de La Chorrera winPick
38.2%
No match played
If the match is played on a new date, this page updates by itself.
Both teams to score
Yes47.2%
No52.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.542.4%
Under 2.557.6%
How much we know
Union Cocle history21 matches
Independiente de La Chorrera history38 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Kickoff8 Nov · 21:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this match
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The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.2%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why Independiente de La Chorrera are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,498 against 1,513. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Independiente de La Chorrera score more
0.95 goals a game over 21 matches for Union Cocle, against 1.29 over 38 for Independiente de La Chorrera.
-
Union Cocle concede fewer
Union Cocle concede 0.81 a game, Independiente de La Chorrera 1.16.
-
Independiente de La Chorrera games more often go over 2.5 goals
29% of Union Cocle matches, against 50% for Independiente de La Chorrera. The model puts this match at 42% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Independiente de La Chorrera@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1497.7
ELO
1512.9
21
ELO · Matches
38
1497.7
Current Team ELO
1512.9
1512.9
Current Opponent ELO
1497.7
-15.14
Current ELO Difference
15.14
0.48
Expected score
0.52
21
History Matches
38
0.00
Residual Mean
0.01
49.94
Overperformance
50.72
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.20
0.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
0.90
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.18
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.08
Overall performance9 signals 90
21
Matches
38
1.33
PPG
1.34
28.6%
Win rate
28.9%
47.6%
Draw rate
47.4%
23.8%
Loss rate
23.7%
52.4%
Over 1.5 rate
68.4%
28.6%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
36.8%
1.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
Venue performance10 signals 100
11
Matches
20
1.55
PPG
1.05
36.4%
Win rate
25.0%
45.5%
Draw rate
30.0%
18.2%
Loss rate
45.0%
45.5%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
36.4%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
18.2%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.98
11
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
0.95
Goals for per game
1.29
61.9%
Scoring rate
65.8%
42.9%
BTTS rate
44.7%
1.09
Goals for per game
1.15
63.6%
Scoring rate
70.0%
36.4%
BTTS rate
45.0%
0.95
Goals for per game
1.47
61.9%
Scoring rate
70.6%
42.9%
BTTS rate
47.1%
21
History Matches
38
0.95
Goals Mean
1.29
1.05
Goals Std
1.21
61.9%
Scored 1+ rate
65.8%
19.0%
Scored 2+ rate
39.5%
9.5%
Scored 3+ rate
18.4%
1.09
Venue Goals Mean
1.15
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
0.81
Goals against per game
1.16
61.9%
Conceding rate
57.9%
0.64
Goals against per game
1.50
45.5%
Conceding rate
70.0%
0.81
Goals against per game
1.00
61.9%
Conceding rate
58.8%
21
History Matches
38
0.81
Conceded Mean
1.16
0.79
Conceded Std
1.20
14.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.5%
4.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.2%
0.64
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
42.1%
38.1%
Failed-to-score rate
34.2%
54.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
38.1%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
42.1%
38.1%
Failed-to-score rate
34.2%
54.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
42.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
21
History Matches
38
0.96
Result entropy
0.96
1.32
Goal Difference Std
1.72
4.16
Stability score
4.07
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
21
Eligible Matches
38
5
Lead Matches
14
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
64.3%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.74
5
Trailing Matches
9
40.0%
Non-loss rate
44.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
21
Halftime Coverage Matches
38
0.43
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.39
0.52
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.91
Rest days
77.91
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
12
Normal Rest History Matches
17
1.42
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.24
8
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals 170
21
Matches
17
1.33
PPG
1.41
28.6%
Win rate
29.4%
47.6%
Draw rate
52.9%
23.8%
Loss rate
17.6%
52.4%
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
28.6%
Over 2.5 rate
52.9%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
35.3%
1.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
21
Current Competition Matches
17
1.33
Current Competition PPG
1.41
0.14
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.47
1
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.18
—
Portability PPG Range
0.41
—
Portability Score
73.69
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
21
Clean History Matches
38
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-15.14
PPG-0.01
GF-0.34
GA-0.35
PPG-0.08
PPG0.50
PPG-0.40
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-17
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate3.9%
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate24.5%
Failed-to-score rate6.4%
History Matches-17
Goals Mean-0.34
Goals Std-0.17
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.20
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean-0.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.07
History Matches-17
Conceded Mean-0.35
Conceded Std-0.41
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate-0.25
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.86
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.04
History Matches-17
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.40
Stability score0.09
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.62
Eligible Matches-17
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate15.7%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-17
First Half Goals For Mean-0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.33
Current Competition Matches4
Current Competition PPG-0.08
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.33
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.18
Long Rest History Matches-12
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Current Team ELO-15.14
Current Opponent ELO15.14
Current ELO Difference-30.28
Expected score-0.04
History Matches-17
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Union Cocle
L
Veraguas3–0Union Cocle27 Oct · away
Pick: Veraguas 49% · hit L
Sporting San Miguelito3–1Union Cocle6 Oct · away
Pick: Sporting San Miguelito 48% · hit D
Union Cocle2–2Alianza FC30 Aug · home
Pick: Union Cocle 39% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Independiente de La Chorrera
W
Deportivo Universitario0–1Independiente de La Chorrera24 Oct · away
Pick: Independiente de La Chorrera 44% · hit D
Independiente de La Chorrera1–1CD Arabe Unido4 Oct · home
Pick: Independiente de La Chorrera 49% · missed L
Tauro FC2–1Independiente de La Chorrera29 Aug · away
Pick: Tauro FC 37% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Union Cocle and Independiente de La Chorrera were due to play in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on Sunday 8 November 2026, but the match was not played.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.