ScoreProb
First Amateur Division Belgium VV - 11 2026

Dessel Sport vs Knokke

Dessel Sport Home · Elo 1,506
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Knokke Away · Elo 1,610
Armand Melis Stadium, Dessel Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Knokke win
Dessel Sport win
29.7%
Draw
20.6%
Knokke winPick
49.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes67.5%
No32.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.9%
Under 2.529.1%

How much we know

Dessel Sport history41 matches
Knokke history44 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 18:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Knokke are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Knokke are rated 104 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,610 against 1,506. On rating alone Knokke would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.00 goals a game over 41 matches for Dessel Sport, against 1.86 over 44 for Knokke.

  • Knokke concede fewer

    Dessel Sport concede 1.98 a game, Knokke 1.41.

  • Dessel Sport games more often go over 2.5 goals

    76% of Dessel Sport matches, against 64% for Knokke. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dessel Sport
Knokke
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1505.9
ELO
1610.1
41
ELO · Matches
44
1505.9
Current Team ELO
1610.1
1610.1
Current Opponent ELO
1505.9
-104.2
Current ELO Difference
104.2
0.35
Expected score
0.65
41
History Matches
44
0.01
Residual Mean
0.13
50.61
Overperformance
58.80
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.40
2.40
Goals for per game
2.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
2.20
1.80
Goals for per game
2.30
2.00
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.50
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.87
Overall performance9 signals
90
41
Matches
44
1.41
PPG
1.98
39.0%
Win rate
59.1%
24.4%
Draw rate
20.5%
36.6%
Loss rate
20.5%
92.7%
Over 1.5 rate
79.5%
75.6%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
58.5%
Over 3.5 rate
43.2%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
21
1.71
PPG
1.81
47.6%
Win rate
52.4%
28.6%
Draw rate
23.8%
23.8%
Loss rate
23.8%
95.2%
Over 1.5 rate
81.0%
76.2%
Over 2.5 rate
76.2%
71.4%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.98
21
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.00
Goals for per game
1.86
85.4%
Scoring rate
84.1%
80.5%
BTTS rate
59.1%
2.38
Goals for per game
2.05
95.2%
Scoring rate
81.0%
90.5%
BTTS rate
66.7%
41
History Matches
44
2.00
Goals Mean
1.86
1.45
Goals Std
1.22
85.4%
Scored 1+ rate
84.1%
58.5%
Scored 2+ rate
59.1%
31.7%
Scored 3+ rate
34.1%
2.38
Venue Goals Mean
2.05
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.98
Goals against per game
1.41
92.7%
Conceding rate
68.2%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.71
90.5%
Conceding rate
76.2%
41
History Matches
44
1.98
Conceded Mean
1.41
1.26
Conceded Std
1.44
61.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.4%
31.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.5%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.71
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
7.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
15.9%
9.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
4.8%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
7.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
15.9%
9.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
4.8%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
7.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
41
History Matches
44
0.98
Result entropy
0.87
1.92
Goal Difference Std
1.84
1.76
Stability score
12.61
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
41
Eligible Matches
44
11
Lead Matches
19
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
84.2%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.88
17
Trailing Matches
10
41.2%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
23.5%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
41
Halftime Coverage Matches
44
0.83
First Half Goals For Mean
0.86
1.02
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
1.17
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.95
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
195.2
Rest days
105.4
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
23
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.65
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.88
17
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.12
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.27
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.21
Portability PPG Std
0.07
0.43
Portability PPG Range
0.13
70.06
Portability Score
88.24
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
41
Clean History Matches
44
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-104.2
PPG-0.56
GF0.14
GA0.57
PPG-0.10
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-3
Goals Mean0.14
Goals Std0.23
Scored 1+ rate1.3%
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.40
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.57
Conceded Std-0.18
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Conceded 2+ rate24.6%
Conceded 3+ rate11.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.60
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.11
Goal Difference Std0.08
Stability score-10.84
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.15
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate11.2%
Trailing Win Rate3.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.43
Second Half Goals For Mean0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.15
Portability PPG Range0.29
Portability Score-18.17
Rest days89.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.15
Current Team ELO-104.2
Current Opponent ELO104.2
Current ELO Difference-208.4
Expected score-0.29
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.12
Overperformance-8.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dessel Sport

L
Mandel United4–3Dessel Sport31 Oct · away
Pick: Mandel United 47% · hit
D
Dessel Sport2–2Oud-Heverlee Leuven II24 Oct · home
Pick: Oud-Heverlee Leuven II 46% · missed
L
Dessel Sport3–4Spouwen-Mopertingen17 Oct · home
Pick: Spouwen-Mopertingen 51% · hit
W
Tienen3–4Dessel Sport30 Aug · away
Pick: Tienen 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Knokke

L
Knokke0–2Harelbeke31 Oct · home
Pick: Knokke 43% · missed
L
Roeselare Daisel2–1Knokke24 Oct · away
Pick: Knokke 42% · missed
L
Knokke0–3Merelbeke18 Oct · home
Pick: Knokke 48% · missed
W
Knokke3–2Oud-Heverlee Leuven II4 Oct · home
Pick: Knokke 52% · hit
W
Knokke3–0Heist30 Aug · home
Pick: Knokke 46% · hit

About this match

Dessel Sport and Knokke meet in First Amateur Division on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 18:30 UTC. The match is played at Armand Melis Stadium, Dessel. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Dessel Sport win 29.7%, draw 20.6%, Knokke win 49.8%. The pick is Knokke win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.9%. Both teams to score: 67.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.