ScoreProb
First Amateur Division Belgium ACFF - 12 2026

Tubize vs Olympic Charleroi

Tubize Home · Elo 1,603
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Olympic Charleroi Away · Elo 1,390
Stade Leburton, Tubize Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tubize win
Tubize winPick
50.6%
Draw
25.9%
Olympic Charleroi win
23.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.8%
No48.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.9%
Under 2.537.1%

How much we know

Tubize history50 matches
Olympic Charleroi history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Tubize are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Tubize are rated 213 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,603 against 1,390. On rating alone Tubize would be expected to take 77% of the points on offer.

  • Tubize score more

    1.78 goals a game over 50 matches for Tubize, against 1.34 over 50 for Olympic Charleroi.

  • Tubize concede fewer

    Tubize concede 1.00 a game, Olympic Charleroi 1.76.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    54% of Tubize matches, against 58% for Olympic Charleroi. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tubize
Olympic Charleroi
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1603.2
ELO
1389.7
50
ELO · Matches
50
1603.2
Current Team ELO
1389.7
1389.7
Current Opponent ELO
1603.2
213.5
Current ELO Difference
-213.5
0.77
Expected score
0.23
50
History Matches
50
0.10
Residual Mean
-0.12
56.88
Overperformance
41.68
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.27
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.00
1.40
Goals for per game
0.60
1.40
Goals against per game
2.60
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
0.40
1.20
Goals for per game
0.90
1.40
Goals against per game
2.30
30.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.08
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.27
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
1.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.69
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
50
1.92
PPG
1.04
54.0%
Win rate
26.0%
30.0%
Draw rate
26.0%
16.0%
Loss rate
48.0%
72.0%
Over 1.5 rate
82.0%
54.0%
Over 2.5 rate
58.0%
34.0%
Over 3.5 rate
34.0%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
27
2.08
PPG
1.33
62.5%
Win rate
33.3%
20.8%
Draw rate
33.3%
16.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.5%
58.3%
Over 2.5 rate
59.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
40.7%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
24
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.78
Goals for per game
1.34
82.0%
Scoring rate
66.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
52.0%
1.88
Goals for per game
1.56
87.5%
Scoring rate
77.8%
45.8%
BTTS rate
59.3%
50
History Matches
50
1.78
Goals Mean
1.34
1.33
Goals Std
1.39
82.0%
Scored 1+ rate
66.0%
54.0%
Scored 2+ rate
34.0%
26.0%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
1.88
Venue Goals Mean
1.56
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.00
Goals against per game
1.76
60.0%
Conceding rate
82.0%
0.92
Goals against per game
1.59
54.2%
Conceding rate
77.8%
50
History Matches
50
1.00
Conceded Mean
1.76
0.98
Conceded Std
1.29
32.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.0%
8.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.0%
0.92
Venue Conceded Mean
1.59
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.0%
18.0%
Failed-to-score rate
34.0%
45.8%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.0%
18.0%
Failed-to-score rate
34.0%
45.8%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
50
0.90
Result entropy
0.96
1.60
Goal Difference Std
1.99
10.15
Stability score
4.17
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
48
21
Lead Matches
12
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.64
11
Trailing Matches
20
63.6%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
15.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.49
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.06
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
107.1
Rest days
204.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
30
Normal Rest History Matches
26
2.03
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.85
18
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.89
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.20
Portability PPG Std
0.80
0.49
Portability PPG Range
1.88
71.35
Portability Score
38.55
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO213.5
PPG0.88
GF0.44
GA-0.76
PPG0.75
PPG1.60
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate22.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate23.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.44
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate16.0%
Scored 2+ rate20.0%
Scored 3+ rate6.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.32
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.13
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.76
Conceded Std-0.31
Clean-sheet rate22.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.22
Conceded 3+ rate-0.20
Venue Conceded Mean-0.68
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.35
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.39
Stability score5.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.29
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate35.7%
Lead Points Retention0.25
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate43.6%
Trailing Win Rate3.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.57
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.60
Portability PPG Range-1.40
Portability Score32.80
Rest days-96.94
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.19
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.60
Current Team ELO213.5
Current Opponent ELO-213.5
Current ELO Difference426.9
Expected score0.55
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.21
Overperformance15.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Tubize

W
Tubize2–1Onhaye31 Oct · home
Pick: Tubize 54% · hit
W
Flénu0–4Tubize25 Oct · away
Pick: Tubize 50% · hit
L
Tubize0–1Meux17 Oct · home
Pick: Tubize 60% · missed
W
Standard Liège II0–1Tubize30 Aug · away
Pick: Tubize 47% · hit
W
Tubize1–0Sporting Charleroi II26 Aug · home
Pick: Tubize 52% · hit

Olympic Charleroi

W
Olympic Charleroi1–0Habay-la-Neuve31 Oct · home
Pick: Olympic Charleroi 46% · hit
L
Rochefort4–0Olympic Charleroi24 Oct · away
Pick: Rochefort 38% · hit
W
Olympic Charleroi3–1RWDM17 Oct · home
Pick: Olympic Charleroi 44% · hit
W
Onhaye0–2Olympic Charleroi30 Aug · away
Pick: Onhaye 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Tubize and Olympic Charleroi meet in First Amateur Division on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. The match is played at Stade Leburton, Tubize. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Tubize win 50.6%, draw 25.9%, Olympic Charleroi win 23.5%. The pick is Tubize win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.9%. Both teams to score: 51.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.