ScoreProb
First Amateur Division Belgium VV - 11 2026

Mandel United vs Cercle Brugge II

Mandel United Home · Elo 1,640
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cercle Brugge II Away · Elo 1,477
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Mandel United win
Mandel United winPick
47.6%
Draw
25.5%
Cercle Brugge II win
26.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.7%
No49.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.6%
Under 2.540.4%

How much we know

Mandel United history38 matches
Cercle Brugge II history42 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Mandel United are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Mandel United are rated 162 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,640 against 1,477. On rating alone Mandel United would be expected to take 72% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.82 goals a game over 38 matches for Mandel United, against 1.67 over 42 for Cercle Brugge II.

  • Mandel United concede fewer

    Mandel United concede 0.63 a game, Cercle Brugge II 1.86.

  • Cercle Brugge II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    47% of Mandel United matches, against 67% for Cercle Brugge II. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mandel United
Cercle Brugge II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1639.7
ELO
1477.3
38
ELO · Matches
42
1639.7
Current Team ELO
1477.3
1477.3
Current Opponent ELO
1639.7
162.5
Current ELO Difference
-162.5
0.72
Expected score
0.28
38
History Matches
42
0.18
Residual Mean
-0.03
61.50
Overperformance
48.20
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.40
1.60
Goals for per game
0.60
1.00
Goals against per game
3.20
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
0.90
1.70
Goals for per game
1.20
0.70
Goals against per game
2.20
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.40
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.54
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.57
Overall performance9 signals
90
38
Matches
42
2.24
PPG
1.26
65.8%
Win rate
35.7%
26.3%
Draw rate
19.0%
7.9%
Loss rate
45.2%
73.7%
Over 1.5 rate
81.0%
47.4%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
23.7%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
21
2.06
PPG
0.95
55.6%
Win rate
23.8%
38.9%
Draw rate
23.8%
5.6%
Loss rate
52.4%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
81.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
47.6%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
18
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.82
Goals for per game
1.67
86.8%
Scoring rate
83.3%
47.4%
BTTS rate
71.4%
1.83
Goals for per game
1.67
88.9%
Scoring rate
81.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
76.2%
38
History Matches
42
1.82
Goals Mean
1.67
1.21
Goals Std
1.47
86.8%
Scored 1+ rate
83.3%
57.9%
Scored 2+ rate
38.1%
23.7%
Scored 3+ rate
21.4%
1.83
Venue Goals Mean
1.67
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.63
Goals against per game
1.86
52.6%
Conceding rate
85.7%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.95
55.6%
Conceding rate
90.5%
38
History Matches
42
0.63
Conceded Mean
1.86
0.67
Conceded Std
1.36
10.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
31.0%
0.67
Venue Conceded Mean
1.95
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
47.4%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
13.2%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
9.5%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
47.4%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
13.2%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
9.5%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
47.4%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
38
History Matches
42
0.75
Result entropy
0.95
1.37
Goal Difference Std
2.12
24.70
Stability score
5.12
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
17
Eligible Matches
41
8
Lead Matches
10
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
90.0%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.90
3
Trailing Matches
14
66.7%
Non-loss rate
21.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
17
Halftime Coverage Matches
41
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
1.06
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.95
0.35
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.98
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
195.3
Rest days
195.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
22
Normal Rest History Matches
23
2.18
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.39
14
Long Rest History Matches
18
2.36
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.17
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.09
Portability PPG Std
0.01
0.18
Portability PPG Range
0.02
85.11
Portability Score
98.36
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
38
Clean History Matches
42
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO162.5
PPG0.97
GF0.15
GA-1.23
PPG1.10
PPG1.40
PPG1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate33.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate34.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-4
Goals Mean0.15
Goals Std-0.26
Scored 1+ rate3.5%
Scored 2+ rate19.8%
Scored 3+ rate2.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.17
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.50
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean-1.23
Conceded Std-0.69
Clean-sheet rate33.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.39
Conceded 3+ rate-0.31
Venue Conceded Mean-1.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.76
History Matches-4
Result entropy-0.20
Goal Difference Std-0.74
Stability score19.59
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.57
Eligible Matches-24
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate45.2%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-24
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.62
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.08
Portability PPG Range0.16
Portability Score-13.25
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.79
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match1.19
Current Team ELO162.5
Current Opponent ELO-162.5
Current ELO Difference325.0
Expected score0.44
History Matches-4
Residual Mean0.20
Overperformance13.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.25

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Mandel United

W
Mandel United4–3Dessel Sport31 Oct · home
Pick: Mandel United 47% · hit
W
Tienen0–2Mandel United25 Oct · away
Pick: Tienen 41% · missed
W
Mandel United3–1Zelzate17 Oct · home
Pick: Mandel United 47% · hit
W
Harelbeke0–3Mandel United30 Aug · away
Pick: Harelbeke 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Cercle Brugge II

D
Oud-Heverlee Leuven II3–3Cercle Brugge II1 Nov · away
Pick: Oud-Heverlee Leuven II 49% · missed
L
Cercle Brugge II1–4Hoogstraten25 Oct · home
Pick: Hoogstraten 47% · hit
D
Thes Sport2–2Cercle Brugge II17 Oct · away
Pick: Thes Sport 62% · missed
D
Cercle Brugge II1–1Zelzate30 Aug · home
Pick: Zelzate 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Mandel United and Cercle Brugge II meet in First Amateur Division on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Mandel United win 47.6%, draw 25.5%, Cercle Brugge II win 26.9%. The pick is Mandel United win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.6%. Both teams to score: 50.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.