ScoreProb
First NL Croatia Round 12 2026

Dinamo Zagreb U21 vs Jadran LP

Dinamo Zagreb U21 Home · Elo 1,512
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Jadran LP Away · Elo 1,593
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Jadran LP win
Dinamo Zagreb U21 win
26.4%
Draw
26.2%
Jadran LP winPick
47.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.1%
No46.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.9%
Under 2.546.1%

How much we know

Dinamo Zagreb U21 history7 matches
Jadran LP history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Jadran LP are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Jadran LP are rated 81 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,593 against 1,512. On rating alone Jadran LP would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Jadran LP score more

    1.43 goals a game over 7 matches for Dinamo Zagreb U21, against 1.96 over 49 for Jadran LP.

  • Defences are close

    Dinamo Zagreb U21 concede 1.14 a game, Jadran LP 1.24.

  • Jadran LP games more often go over 2.5 goals

    43% of Dinamo Zagreb U21 matches, against 61% for Jadran LP. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dinamo Zagreb U21
Jadran LP
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1512.1
ELO
1592.9
7
ELO · Matches
49
1512.1
Current Team ELO
1592.9
1592.9
Current Opponent ELO
1512.1
-80.78
Current ELO Difference
80.78
0.39
Expected score
0.61
7
History Matches
49
0.05
Residual Mean
0.09
51.22
Overperformance
56.72
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.27
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.60
1.40
Goals for per game
2.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
7
Matches
10
1.57
PPG
2.40
1.43
Goals for per game
2.40
1.14
Goals against per game
0.70
42.9%
Win rate
70.0%
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
1.18
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.74
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.99
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.98
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
7
Matches
49
1.57
PPG
1.86
42.9%
Win rate
55.1%
28.6%
Draw rate
20.4%
28.6%
Loss rate
24.5%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
87.8%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
61.2%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
40.8%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.34
Venue performance10 signals
100
2
Matches
24
1.00
PPG
1.54
0.0%
Win rate
41.7%
100.0%
Draw rate
29.2%
0.0%
Loss rate
29.2%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
41.7%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.09
2
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.43
Goals for per game
1.96
71.4%
Scoring rate
85.7%
42.9%
BTTS rate
53.1%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.88
100.0%
Scoring rate
79.2%
100.0%
BTTS rate
54.2%
0.00
Goals for per game
2.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
7
History Matches
49
1.43
Goals Mean
1.96
1.18
Goals Std
1.38
71.4%
Scored 1+ rate
85.7%
42.9%
Scored 2+ rate
61.2%
28.6%
Scored 3+ rate
26.5%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.88
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.14
Goals against per game
1.24
71.4%
Conceding rate
63.3%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.17
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
7
History Matches
49
1.14
Conceded Mean
1.24
0.99
Conceded Std
1.48
28.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.7%
14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.2%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.17
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
7
History Matches
49
0.98
Result entropy
0.91
1.48
Goal Difference Std
2.34
1.79
Stability score
9.22
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
7
Eligible Matches
49
2
Lead Matches
21
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
90.5%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.94
1
Trailing Matches
10
0.0%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
7
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.43
First Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
74.97
Rest days
75.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
0
Normal Rest History Matches
32
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.78
6
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.94
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
2
Competition Season Count
4
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.43
—
Portability PPG Range
0.97
—
Portability Score
53.53
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
7
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO-80.78
PPG-0.29
GF-0.53
GA-0.10
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.54
PPG-1.60
PPG-0.83
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-42
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate14.3%
History Matches-22
Clean-sheet rate-0.33
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches-42
Goals Mean-0.53
Goals Std-0.21
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.18
Scored 3+ rate2.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.97
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.57
History Matches-42
Conceded Mean-0.10
Conceded Std-0.49
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate2.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.44
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.21
History Matches-42
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.85
Stability score-7.44
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.52
Eligible Matches-42
Lead Matches-19
Lead Win Rate9.5%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate-0.30
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches-42
First Half Goals For Mean-0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days-0.93
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-32
Long Rest History Matches-10
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.60
Current Team ELO-80.78
Current Opponent ELO80.78
Current ELO Difference-161.6
Expected score-0.23
History Matches-42
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-5.49
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dinamo Zagreb U21

W
Croatia Zmijavci2–3Dinamo Zagreb U211 Nov · away
Pick: Croatia Zmijavci 66% · missed
L
Dinamo Zagreb U210–1HNK Cibalia23 Oct · home
Pick: HNK Cibalia 42% · hit
L
Dinamo Zagreb U210–1Karlovac 191916 Oct · home
Pick: Dinamo Zagreb U21 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Jadran LP

D
Jadran LP1–1Segesta Sisak31 Oct · home
Pick: Segesta Sisak 51% · missed
L
Mladost Ždralovi1–0Jadran LP26 Oct · away
Pick: Mladost Ždralovi 50% · hit
D
Jadran LP4–4Dugopolje17 Oct · home
Pick: Jadran LP 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Dinamo Zagreb U21 and Jadran LP meet in First NL on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Dinamo Zagreb U21 win 26.4%, draw 26.2%, Jadran LP win 47.4%. The pick is Jadran LP win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.9%. Both teams to score: 53.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.