ScoreProb
First NL Croatia Round 12 2026

HNK Cibalia vs Croatia Zmijavci

HNK Cibalia Home · Elo 1,585
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Croatia Zmijavci Away · Elo 1,498
Stadion HNK Cibalia, Vinkovci Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: HNK Cibalia win
HNK Cibalia winPick
38.9%
Draw
29.2%
Croatia Zmijavci win
31.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.5%
No50.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.4%
Under 2.550.6%

How much we know

HNK Cibalia history55 matches
Croatia Zmijavci history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.9%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why HNK Cibalia are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • HNK Cibalia are rated 87 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,585 against 1,498. On rating alone HNK Cibalia would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • HNK Cibalia score more

    1.47 goals a game over 55 matches for HNK Cibalia, against 1.09 over 54 for Croatia Zmijavci.

  • HNK Cibalia concede fewer

    HNK Cibalia concede 1.07 a game, Croatia Zmijavci 1.37.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    53% of HNK Cibalia matches, against 52% for Croatia Zmijavci. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
HNK Cibalia
Croatia Zmijavci
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1585.0
ELO
1498.5
55
ELO · Matches
54
1585.0
Current Team ELO
1498.5
1498.5
Current Opponent ELO
1585.0
86.52
Current ELO Difference
-86.52
0.62
Expected score
0.38
55
History Matches
54
0.08
Residual Mean
0.00
55.76
Overperformance
49.76
0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.40
1.40
Goals for per game
2.00
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.70
1.70
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.69
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
54
1.69
PPG
1.24
49.1%
Win rate
35.2%
21.8%
Draw rate
18.5%
29.1%
Loss rate
46.3%
70.9%
Over 1.5 rate
72.2%
52.7%
Over 2.5 rate
51.9%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
28
2.04
PPG
1.14
60.7%
Win rate
32.1%
21.4%
Draw rate
17.9%
17.9%
Loss rate
50.0%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
21.4%
Over 3.5 rate
21.4%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
28
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.47
Goals for per game
1.09
80.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
52.7%
BTTS rate
44.4%
1.54
Goals for per game
0.93
78.6%
Scoring rate
64.3%
42.9%
BTTS rate
39.3%
2.00
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
55
History Matches
54
1.47
Goals Mean
1.09
1.11
Goals Std
1.04
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
43.6%
Scored 2+ rate
27.8%
18.2%
Scored 3+ rate
13.0%
1.54
Venue Goals Mean
0.93
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.07
Goals against per game
1.37
63.6%
Conceding rate
74.1%
0.75
Goals against per game
1.54
53.6%
Conceding rate
71.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
55
History Matches
54
1.07
Conceded Mean
1.37
0.99
Conceded Std
1.22
36.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.0%
5.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.8%
0.75
Venue Conceded Mean
1.54
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
46.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
46.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
54
0.95
Result entropy
0.94
1.46
Goal Difference Std
1.90
5.28
Stability score
5.67
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
54
20
Lead Matches
14
85.0%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.76
11
Trailing Matches
19
27.3%
Non-loss rate
21.1%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.37
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.94
Rest days
76.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
28
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.71
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
23
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.65
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.39
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.00
5
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.26
Portability PPG Std
0.61
0.63
Portability PPG Range
1.34
66.03
Portability Score
44.84
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO86.52
PPG0.45
GF0.38
GA-0.30
PPG0.00
PPG0.89
PPG-0.40
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate10.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate17.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.38
Goals Std0.07
Scored 1+ rate13.3%
Scored 2+ rate15.9%
Scored 3+ rate5.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.61
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.02
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.30
Conceded Std-0.23
Clean-sheet rate10.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.79
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.02
History Matches1
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.44
Stability score-0.39
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.25
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate13.6%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate6.2%
Trailing Win Rate18.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.36
Portability PPG Range-0.71
Portability Score21.18
Rest days0.94
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.71
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.26
Current Team ELO86.52
Current Opponent ELO-86.52
Current ELO Difference173.0
Expected score0.24
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance6.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

HNK Cibalia

W
HNK Cibalia2–0Karlovac 191930 Oct · home
Pick: HNK Cibalia 58% · hit
W
Dinamo Zagreb U210–1HNK Cibalia23 Oct · away
Pick: HNK Cibalia 42% · hit
L
HNK Cibalia1–4Segesta Sisak17 Oct · home
Pick: HNK Cibalia 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Croatia Zmijavci

L
Croatia Zmijavci2–3Dinamo Zagreb U211 Nov · home
Pick: Croatia Zmijavci 66% · missed
L
Segesta Sisak2–0Croatia Zmijavci24 Oct · away
Pick: Segesta Sisak 43% · hit
W
Croatia Zmijavci3–1Mladost Ždralovi18 Oct · home
Pick: Croatia Zmijavci 54% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

HNK Cibalia and Croatia Zmijavci meet in First NL on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadion HNK Cibalia, Vinkovci. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: HNK Cibalia win 38.9%, draw 29.2%, Croatia Zmijavci win 31.9%. The pick is HNK Cibalia win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.4%. Both teams to score: 49.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.