ScoreProb
First NL Croatia Round 12 2026

Mladost Ždralovi vs Hrvace

Mladost Ždralovi Home · Elo 1,606
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hrvace Away · Elo 1,493
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Mladost Ždralovi win
Mladost Ždralovi winPick
60.7%
Draw
20.9%
Hrvace win
18.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.9%
No46.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.1%
Under 2.538.9%

How much we know

Mladost Ždralovi history55 matches
Hrvace history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.7%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Mladost Ždralovi are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Mladost Ždralovi are rated 113 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,606 against 1,493. On rating alone Mladost Ždralovi would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.78 goals a game over 55 matches for Mladost Ždralovi, against 1.62 over 55 for Hrvace.

  • Mladost Ždralovi concede fewer

    Mladost Ždralovi concede 1.07 a game, Hrvace 1.45.

  • Hrvace games more often go over 2.5 goals

    55% of Mladost Ždralovi matches, against 67% for Hrvace. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mladost Ždralovi
Hrvace
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1606.3
ELO
1493.4
55
ELO · Matches
55
1606.3
Current Team ELO
1493.4
1493.4
Current Opponent ELO
1606.3
112.9
Current ELO Difference
-112.9
0.66
Expected score
0.34
55
History Matches
55
0.10
Residual Mean
-0.01
57.19
Overperformance
49.33
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.00
1.20
Goals for per game
0.20
0.60
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
0.90
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.90
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.54
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
0.98
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.24
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
55
1.95
PPG
1.55
56.4%
Win rate
47.3%
25.5%
Draw rate
12.7%
18.2%
Loss rate
40.0%
83.6%
Over 1.5 rate
74.5%
54.5%
Over 2.5 rate
67.3%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
34.5%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.02
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
28
1.93
PPG
1.21
51.7%
Win rate
35.7%
37.9%
Draw rate
14.3%
10.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
86.2%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
55.2%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
37.9%
Over 3.5 rate
35.7%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
29
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.78
Goals for per game
1.62
87.3%
Scoring rate
72.7%
58.2%
BTTS rate
54.5%
1.83
Goals for per game
1.39
86.2%
Scoring rate
64.3%
62.1%
BTTS rate
53.6%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
55
History Matches
55
1.78
Goals Mean
1.62
1.06
Goals Std
1.58
87.3%
Scored 1+ rate
72.7%
61.8%
Scored 2+ rate
45.5%
23.6%
Scored 3+ rate
25.5%
1.83
Venue Goals Mean
1.39
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.07
Goals against per game
1.45
65.5%
Conceding rate
76.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.68
65.5%
Conceding rate
85.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
3.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
55
History Matches
55
1.07
Conceded Mean
1.45
1.04
Conceded Std
1.19
27.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.8%
12.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.68
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.6%
12.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.6%
12.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
55
0.89
Result entropy
0.89
1.52
Goal Difference Std
2.02
10.67
Stability score
10.52
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
54
23
Lead Matches
22
65.2%
Lead Win Rate
90.9%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.92
6
Trailing Matches
13
33.3%
Non-loss rate
7.7%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.94
First Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.90
Rest days
75.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
27
Normal Rest History Matches
30
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.57
25
Long Rest History Matches
20
2.04
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.45
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-3.00
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.14
Portability PPG Std
0.50
0.29
Portability PPG Range
1.38
78.39
Portability Score
50.06
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO112.9
PPG0.40
GF0.16
GA-0.38
PPG1.00
PPG0.72
PPG1.60
PPG1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate10.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate20.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.16
Goals Std-0.52
Scored 1+ rate14.5%
Scored 2+ rate16.4%
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.43
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.56
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.38
Conceded Std-0.15
Clean-sheet rate10.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.68
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.05
History Matches0
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.50
Stability score0.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.26
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.26
Lead Points Retention-0.19
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate25.6%
Trailing Win Rate16.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.35
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.36
Portability PPG Range-1.08
Portability Score28.33
Rest days2.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.43
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.59
Current Team ELO112.9
Current Opponent ELO-112.9
Current ELO Difference225.9
Expected score0.31
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance7.85
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.35

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Mladost Ždralovi

W
Mladost Ždralovi2–0NK Slaven Belupo3 Nov · home
Pick: Mladost Ždralovi 40% · hit
W
Opatija0–3Mladost Ždralovi30 Oct · away
Pick: Opatija 39% · missed
W
Mladost Ždralovi1–0Jadran LP26 Oct · home
Pick: Mladost Ždralovi 50% · hit
L
Croatia Zmijavci3–1Mladost Ždralovi18 Oct · away
Pick: Croatia Zmijavci 54% · hit
W
Kustosija1–2Mladost Ždralovi30 Aug · away
Pick: Kustosija 40% · missed

Hrvace

W
Hrvace3–0Dugopolje31 Oct · home
Pick: Dugopolje 40% · missed
D
Sesvete0–0Hrvace23 Oct · away
Pick: Sesvete 59% · missed
L
Hrvace1–2Kustosija17 Oct · home
Pick: Kustosija 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Mladost Ždralovi and Hrvace meet in First NL on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Mladost Ždralovi win 60.7%, draw 20.9%, Hrvace win 18.3%. The pick is Mladost Ždralovi win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.1%. Both teams to score: 53.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.