ScoreProb
3. Lig - Group 3 Türkiye 3. Lig Group 3 - 10 2026

Diyarbekirspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor

Diyarbekirspor Home · Elo 1,466
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Yeni Malatyaspor Away · Elo 1,278
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Diyarbekirspor win
Diyarbekirspor winPick
71.8%
Draw
18.5%
Yeni Malatyaspor win
9.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes35.3%
No64.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.7%
Under 2.539.3%

How much we know

Diyarbekirspor history46 matches
Yeni Malatyaspor history39 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (71.8%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Diyarbekirspor are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Diyarbekirspor are rated 188 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,466 against 1,278. On rating alone Diyarbekirspor would be expected to take 75% of the points on offer.

  • Diyarbekirspor score far more

    1.02 goals a game over 46 matches for Diyarbekirspor, against 0.31 over 39 for Yeni Malatyaspor.

  • Diyarbekirspor concede fewer

    Diyarbekirspor concede 1.35 a game, Yeni Malatyaspor 4.26.

  • Yeni Malatyaspor games more often go over 2.5 goals

    41% of Diyarbekirspor matches, against 87% for Yeni Malatyaspor. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 19 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Diyarbekirspor
Yeni Malatyaspor
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1465.9
ELO
1278.2
46
ELO · Matches
39
1465.9
Current Team ELO
1278.2
1278.2
Current Opponent ELO
1465.9
187.6
Current ELO Difference
-187.6
0.75
Expected score
0.25
46
History Matches
39
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.28
47.15
Overperformance
31.38
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.00
1.40
Goals for per game
0.00
1.00
Goals against per game
3.00
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
0.00
1.20
Goals for per game
0.00
1.40
Goals against per game
3.00
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.00
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.00
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.00
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.00
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.00
1.99
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
39
1.20
PPG
0.05
30.4%
Win rate
0.0%
28.3%
Draw rate
5.1%
41.3%
Loss rate
94.9%
67.4%
Over 1.5 rate
97.4%
41.3%
Over 2.5 rate
87.2%
21.7%
Over 3.5 rate
56.4%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.19
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
20
1.59
PPG
0.05
40.9%
Win rate
0.0%
36.4%
Draw rate
5.0%
22.7%
Loss rate
95.0%
68.2%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
40.9%
Over 2.5 rate
85.0%
18.2%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.10
22
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.02
Goals for per game
0.31
63.0%
Scoring rate
30.8%
45.7%
BTTS rate
30.8%
1.18
Goals for per game
0.35
72.7%
Scoring rate
35.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
35.0%
46
History Matches
39
1.02
Goals Mean
0.31
0.99
Goals Std
0.46
63.0%
Scored 1+ rate
30.8%
30.4%
Scored 2+ rate
0.0%
6.5%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.18
Venue Goals Mean
0.35
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.35
Goals against per game
4.26
71.7%
Conceding rate
97.4%
1.05
Goals against per game
4.20
63.6%
Conceding rate
100.0%
46
History Matches
39
1.35
Conceded Mean
4.26
1.43
Conceded Std
2.23
30.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
94.9%
13.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
84.6%
1.05
Venue Conceded Mean
4.20
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
2.6%
37.0%
Failed-to-score rate
69.2%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
65.0%
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
2.6%
37.0%
Failed-to-score rate
69.2%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
65.0%
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
2.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
39
0.99
Result entropy
0.18
1.81
Goal Difference Std
2.19
1.29
Stability score
81.59
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
29
14
Lead Matches
0
57.1%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.69
Lead Points Retention
—
15
Trailing Matches
26
20.0%
Non-loss rate
3.8%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
29
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.17
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
2.38
0.52
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.24
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
2.31
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
203.0
Rest days
226.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
31
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.10
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.04
14
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.08
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.09
Portability PPG Std
0.05
0.18
Portability PPG Range
0.09
84.81
Portability Score
91.67
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
39
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO187.6
PPG1.14
GF0.71
GA-2.91
PPG1.54
PPG1.00
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate25.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.32
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate36.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.38
History Matches7
Goals Mean0.71
Goals Std0.53
Scored 1+ rate32.3%
Scored 2+ rate30.4%
Scored 3+ rate6.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.83
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std1.33
History Matches7
Conceded Mean-2.91
Conceded Std-0.79
Clean-sheet rate25.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.64
Conceded 3+ rate-0.72
Venue Conceded Mean-3.15
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.36
History Matches7
Result entropy0.80
Goal Difference Std-0.39
Stability score-80.29
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.94
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.99
Eligible Matches17
Lead Matches14
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate16.2%
Trailing Win Rate6.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches17
First Half Goals For Mean0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean-1.79
Second Half Goals For Mean0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean-1.55
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.04
Portability PPG Range0.09
Portability Score-6.86
Rest days-23.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.06
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match1.35
Current Team ELO187.6
Current Opponent ELO-187.6
Current ELO Difference375.2
Expected score0.49
History Matches7
Residual Mean0.24
Overperformance15.77
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Diyarbekirspor

L
Yozgat Bld Bozokspor2–0Diyarbekirspor1 Nov · away
Pick: Yozgat Bld Bozokspor 54% · hit
W
Diyarbekirspor3–1Adanaspor24 Oct · home
Pick: Diyarbekirspor 72% · hit
L
Osmaniyespor1–0Diyarbekirspor18 Oct · away
Pick: Osmaniyespor 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Yeni Malatyaspor

No earlier results with our pick yet

About this match

Diyarbekirspor and Yeni Malatyaspor meet in 3. Lig - Group 3 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Diyarbekirspor win 71.8%, draw 18.5%, Yeni Malatyaspor win 9.8%. The pick is Diyarbekirspor win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.7%. Both teams to score: 35.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.