ScoreProb
3. Lig - Group 3 Türkiye 3. Lig Group 3 - 10 2026

Karaköprü Belediyespor vs Niğde Belediyesispor

Karaköprü Belediyespor Home · Elo 1,493
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Niğde Belediyesispor Away · Elo 1,474
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Karaköprü Belediyespor win
Karaköprü Belediyespor winPick
37.5%
Draw
29.2%
Niğde Belediyesispor win
33.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.4%
No46.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.6%
Under 2.547.4%

How much we know

Karaköprü Belediyespor history48 matches
Niğde Belediyesispor history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Karaköprü Belediyespor are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,493 against 1,474. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.33 goals a game over 48 matches for Karaköprü Belediyespor, against 1.32 over 47 for Niğde Belediyesispor.

  • Defences are close

    Karaköprü Belediyespor concede 1.38 a game, Niğde Belediyesispor 1.28.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Karaköprü Belediyespor matches, against 49% for Niğde Belediyesispor. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 19 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Karaköprü Belediyespor
Niğde Belediyesispor
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1492.9
ELO
1474.5
48
ELO · Matches
47
1492.9
Current Team ELO
1474.5
1474.5
Current Opponent ELO
1492.9
18.45
Current ELO Difference
-18.45
0.53
Expected score
0.47
48
History Matches
47
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.03
50.36
Overperformance
47.70
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.60
1.60
Goals for per game
1.20
2.60
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.50
1.80
Goals against per game
1.60
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.72
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.22
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
47
1.33
PPG
1.23
37.5%
Win rate
31.9%
20.8%
Draw rate
27.7%
41.7%
Loss rate
40.4%
70.8%
Over 1.5 rate
68.1%
52.1%
Over 2.5 rate
48.9%
22.9%
Over 3.5 rate
34.0%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
25
1.67
PPG
1.04
48.1%
Win rate
28.0%
22.2%
Draw rate
20.0%
29.6%
Loss rate
52.0%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
64.0%
59.3%
Over 2.5 rate
44.0%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
24.0%
2.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
27
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.33
Goals for per game
1.32
64.6%
Scoring rate
68.1%
50.0%
BTTS rate
51.1%
1.70
Goals for per game
1.16
74.1%
Scoring rate
60.0%
59.3%
BTTS rate
44.0%
48
History Matches
47
1.33
Goals Mean
1.32
1.50
Goals Std
1.24
64.6%
Scored 1+ rate
68.1%
37.5%
Scored 2+ rate
40.4%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
14.9%
1.70
Venue Goals Mean
1.16
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.38
Goals against per game
1.28
72.9%
Conceding rate
72.3%
1.22
Goals against per game
1.28
70.4%
Conceding rate
76.0%
48
History Matches
47
1.38
Conceded Mean
1.28
1.38
Conceded Std
1.11
35.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.2%
14.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.9%
1.22
Venue Conceded Mean
1.28
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
27.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.7%
35.4%
Failed-to-score rate
31.9%
29.6%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
27.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.7%
35.4%
Failed-to-score rate
31.9%
29.6%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
27.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
47
0.96
Result entropy
0.99
2.06
Goal Difference Std
1.64
3.57
Stability score
1.14
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
47
17
Lead Matches
15
76.5%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.71
14
Trailing Matches
12
14.3%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
0.77
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.56
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
203.0
Rest days
203.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
33
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.27
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.17
12
Long Rest History Matches
11
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.55
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.50
1.07
Portability PPG Range
1.21
53.45
Portability Score
50.21
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO18.45
PPG0.10
GF0.01
GA0.10
PPG0.63
PPG0.60
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate3.5%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate5.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.01
Goals Std0.27
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.54
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.54
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.10
Conceded Std0.27
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean-0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.92
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.42
Stability score2.43
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.34
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate9.8%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.06
Portability PPG Range-0.15
Portability Score3.24
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.10
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.30
Current Team ELO18.45
Current Opponent ELO-18.45
Current ELO Difference36.89
Expected score0.05
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.66
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Karaköprü Belediyespor

D
Kırşehir Belediyespor3–3Karaköprü Belediyespor1 Nov · away
Pick: Karaköprü Belediyespor 38% · missed
L
Gençlerbirliği S.K.5–0Karaköprü Belediyespor29 Oct · away
Pick: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 56% · hit
W
Karaköprü Belediyespor6–0Karaman FK24 Oct · home
Pick: Karaköprü Belediyespor 51% · hit
W
Silifke Belediyespor1–2Karaköprü Belediyespor17 Oct · away
Pick: Silifke Belediyespor 44% · missed
W
Hatayspor1–2Karaköprü Belediyespor7 Oct · away
Pick: Karaköprü Belediyespor 42% · hit

Niğde Belediyesispor

W
Niğde Belediyesispor2–1Adana Adaletgucu1 Nov · home
Pick: Niğde Belediyesispor 69% · hit
W
Niğde Belediyesispor2–1Ağrı 197024 Oct · home
Pick: Ağrı 1970 37% · missed
L
Kırşehir Belediyespor4–2Niğde Belediyesispor18 Oct · away
Pick: Niğde Belediyesispor 41% · missed
L
Niğde Belediyesispor0–2Ağrı 19707 Oct · home
Pick: Ağrı 1970 37% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Karaköprü Belediyespor and Niğde Belediyesispor meet in 3. Lig - Group 3 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Karaköprü Belediyespor win 37.5%, draw 29.2%, Niğde Belediyesispor win 33.3%. The pick is Karaköprü Belediyespor win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.6%. Both teams to score: 53.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.